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Scoggins Report - May 2013 Spec Market Scorecard

Scoggins Report - May 2013 Spec Market Scorecard

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Published by Jason Scoggins
The Scoggins Report is a terribly unscientific analysis of the feature film development business based on information assembled from a variety of public and non-public sources. The numbers in the reports are by no means official statistics. Caveat emptor. Check out the newsletter's new home on SpecScout.com.
The Scoggins Report is a terribly unscientific analysis of the feature film development business based on information assembled from a variety of public and non-public sources. The numbers in the reports are by no means official statistics. Caveat emptor. Check out the newsletter's new home on SpecScout.com.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Jason Scoggins on May 21, 2013
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The Scoggins Reportby Jason Scoggins & Cindy KaplanMay 20, 2013
May 2013Spec Market Scorecard
Consider the following remarkable stats:
There has been 24%
less 
new material onthe market so far this year than last (100 specs in 2013 vs 132 in 2012), yet therehave been 10%
more 
spec sales (44 this year vs 40 in 2012)
.Seems like good news, right? Well, yes, but as you’ll plainly see from the grids on thefollowing pages, there’s a big, fat elephant in the room: With two exceptions (
Fox
and
Universal
), the studios and their labels simply aren’t buying spec scripts or pitches atanywhere near the velocity of years past. The numbers are so striking that we created
anew chart on page 4 of the Scorecard which shows what it looks like when themajor studios cut their spending by roughly 45%
.In short, the studios seem to have stopped aren’t acting like studios. Thank heaven thenon-studio buyers have stepped into the gap -- the more spec script sales the better,obviously -- but we the repurcussions this trend will have if it continues through the endof the year are troubling.Think about it this way: Imagine the impact if Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google,Microsoft and Yahoo cut their collective R&D budget by 45%. Sure, they’d be way moreprofitable for a few quarters, but their ability to innovate for the long term would crumble.
2013 Overall Numbers
Of 2013‘s 44 spec sales, 9 (20%) have been of scripts that originally went out priorto 2012
. Here are the overall spec market numbers through May 17...
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
New Specs1916222617
100 
Spec Sales8810135
44 
2012 12 13 14 12 12 15 5 13 9 13 7
132 
2011 * 3 13 15 9 7 12 10 5 7 20 8 1
132 
2010 * 1 10 7 13 4 7 0 1 6 7 5 1
65 
2009 3 12 10 9 10 6 5 3 4 5 4 1
72 
* For 2010 and 2011, sales of scripts that originally went to market in years prior are not distributed monthly inthe above table but have been added to the year-end totals.
The Scoggins Report is brought to you by 
SpecScout.com -- The Spec Market, Quantified
The Scoggins Report , by Jason Scoggins & Cindy Kaplan May 2013 Spec Market Scor ecard –May 20, 2013Creative Commons Attribution 2012 Page 1 of 11
 
...and here are the monthly spec sales numbers in graph form.The following are
combined total
spec and pitch sales numbers through May 17, withyear over year monthly comparisons...
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
2012 2011
Specs
881013544
132 13
Pitches
310810435
81 10
Totals 11 18 18 23
79
213 23
2012 Total 20 20 22 26 16 22 13 1
13191015
2011 Total 7 21 28 16 15 28 20 9 12 30 16 2
...and here are those combined spec and pitch sales numbers in graph form as well.05101520JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2013201220112010200951015202530JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec201320122011
The Scoggins Report is brought to you by 
SpecScout.com -- The Spec Market, Quantified
The Scoggins Report , by Jason Scoggins & Cindy Kaplan May 2013 Spec Market Scor ecard –May 20, 2013Creative Commons Attribution 2012 Page 2 of 11
 
Spec Sales By Genre
 
JFMAMJJASONDTotal
2012 2011 2010 200
Action/Adventure2223
9
29 20 16 1
Comedy111
3
28 28 17 2
Drama112
4
10 14 7
Horror1121
5
13 8 0
Sci-2221
7
15 15 5
Thriller22443
15
36 37 17 21
Spec Sales By Buyer - Studios
 
JFMAMJJASONDTotal
2012 2011 2010 200
CBS Films1
1
0 3 0 2 
Columbia 
0
8 7 1 5 
Dimension1
1
1 1 0 1
Disney1
1
2 2 2 2 
DreamWorks 
0
1 2 1 4 
Fox1
1
6 8 2 3 
Fox 20001
1
1 1 2 0 
Lionsgate*21
3
4 2 1 3 
MGM1
1
0 0 0 1
New Line 
0
1 4 0 0 
New Regency 
0
3 0 2 2 
Paramount1
1
11 5 4
Par. Insurge
1
1
2 0 0 0 
Relativity11
2
1 2 6 3 
Universal11
2
9 5 2 6 
Warner Bros.1
1
7 14 9
Totals
23362
16
57 56 32 4
!
* 2011 and 2012 numbers for Lionsgate and Summit are combined.
The Scoggins Report is brought to you by 
SpecScout.com -- The Spec Market, Quantified
The Scoggins Report , by Jason Scoggins & Cindy Kaplan May 2013 Spec Market Scor ecard –May 20, 2013Creative Commons Attribution 2012 Page 3 of 11

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