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The exclusion of Mr. Rafsanjani and another thorn in the conservatives’ side, Esfandiar RahimMashaei, could foreshadow even greater repercussions, analysts and commentators said.Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic republic has been characterized by constant and often public competition among opposing power centers, a back-and-forth that gives ordinary citizensand private business owners the ability to navigate among the groups.Barring further surprises, the winner of the June election will now be drawn from a slate of conservative candidates in Iran’s ruling camp, a loose alliance of Shiite Muslim clerics andRevolutionary Guard commanders. That would the presidency under their control and wouldmark the first time since the 1979 revolution that all state institutions were under the firm controlof one faction.Analysts have long speculated — and some conservative clerics have confirmed — that theruling faction is determined to abolish the office of president, which has served as a locus of opposition under the populist incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and before him the reformistMohammad Khatami, who pushed for more personal freedoms. While by no means certain, it isnow a greater possibility.At the very least, the anti-climactic election campaign seems likely to further reinforce thealienation of the urban classes, which make up a large portion of the electorate and mostly gaveup on politics after the suppression of the 2009 uprising following Mr. Ahmadinejad’s re-election, widely dismissed as fraudulent. A major boycott of the vote could further undercut thegovernment’s already diminished legitimacy.The remaining candidates reflect the different shades of gray that now make up Iran’sestablishment, a coalition of conservative clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders knownas the traditionalists. Of the eight who were selected — out of the 700 hopefuls who signed up — only one, Hassan Rowhani, a former nuclear negotiator, has even slightly different stancesfrom the traditionalists.Three of the qualified candidates have direct links to the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah AliKhamenei: Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a close adviser and a relative by marriage; Ali Akbar Velayati, his foreign policy adviser; and Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili.A fourth, Tehran’s mayor, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, has long presented himself as atechnocrat but last week boasted publicly of having beaten protesting students as a policecommander.All of them say they are ready to fix the economy by using a “revolutionary mind-set” and tosolve the nuclear dispute with the Western powers by convincing them that Iran’s position is just.If history is borne out, one of the candidates, possibly Mr. Rowhani, who is close to Mr.Rafsanjani, will try to tap into votes that would have gone to the two disqualified candidates.Indeed, Mr. Rowhani has already said that if elected he would start direct talks with the UnitedStates, a popular theme among dissatisfied urban voters.