April Survey of Real Estate Agents:
Pricing Momentum Doesn’t Miss a Beat in April
Demand remains strong while supply declines; prices continue to move higher:
Rising prices remains the mostcommon theme in our survey, while declining inventories is a close second. Higher prices and low inventories continueto drive demand as buyers are growing increasingly concerned that they will miss opportunities in the market by waitingon the sidelines. However, competition remains fierce, and in some markets, buyers have become frustrated with losingout on bids.
Multiple offers becoming commonplace:
Our home price index increased again to 84.8 from 83.7, suggesting thatprices continue to experience very broad improvement as a greater share of agents pointed to higher prices in April vs.March. We expect prices to continue to head higher, although similar to our March commentary, we think it is becomingincreasingly difficult to see additional increases in our index, although any reading above 50 points to rising prices. Thegreatest strength was in CA, FL, and the Southwest (Phoenix, Vegas), although every market experienced higher prices.
Traffic remains at healthy in April:
Our buyer traffic index fell slightly to 64 from 66 in April, but continued to indicatethat levels surpassed
expectations. According to agents, the slightly lower index reading was a function of
frustration with the intense level of competition for limited inventories in certain markets (i.e., consistently gettingoutbid); however, buyers were said to be willing to step back in given the right opportunity.
Heightened urgency as time to sell falls further:
Our time to sell index
a leading indicator for home price trends
came in at 81 in April, pointing to less time needed to sell a home. Urgency has remained strong in the market and hasseen consistent improvement through the spring season. Buyers see declining inventory, rising prices, and areconcerned that rates will soon increase, leading to added urgency. Buyers are said to not want to miss out onopportunities.
MonthBuyer TrafficIndex Home PriceIndex IncentiveIndex Home ListingsIndex Time to SellIndex
Nov-12 49.0 66.4 46.7 74.0 63.3Dec-12 52.0 68.3 49.9 75.7 68.3 Jan-13 59.0 74.6 52.4 74.7 71.5Feb-13 65.1 79.3 51.5 72.7 75.4Mar-13 66.1 83.7 53.0 71.7 80.8 Apr-13 64.4 84.8 52.9 73.7 81.0
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
72%11%5%25%73%28%3%17%67%0%20%40%60%80%Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare tothe Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
Source: Credit Suisse