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FinAssistanceEuroArea_2013_05_21

FinAssistanceEuroArea_2013_05_21

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Published by: Bruegel on May 24, 2013
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EU-IMF assistance to euro-area countries:an early assessment
Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff 
May 2013[Review copy of a manuscript of a forthcoming Bruegel Blueprint]
 
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Contents
Preface ............................................................................................................................... 3Executive summary ........................................................................................................... 41. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 72. What is special about the crisis in the euro area? .......................................................... 93. The Troika ................................................................................................................... 194. The euro-area programmes in perspective: a comparison with earlier IMF programmes......................................................................................................................................... 255. Assessing the three euro-area programmes ................................................................. 346. Assessing the institutional set-up of assistance ........................................................... 827. Conclusion and recommendations .............................................................................. 92References ....................................................................................................................... 98Appendix 1: Derivation of the financing needs of the three countries .......................... 102Appendix 2: Methodology for Table 6 .......................................................................... 103Annex 1: Framework for cooperation between the IMF, the European Commission and theECB ............................................................................................................................... 106Annex 2: Timeline of events ......................................................................................... 107
 
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Preface
 In 2011, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) asked us to prepare an independentassessment of its surveillance of the euro area during 2007-09. The resulting report (Pisani-Ferry, Sapir and Wolff, 2011) was published by both Bruegel and the Fund.Having studied crisis prevention, we thought that it would be particularly interesting tocontinue with a further study of the results of, and lessons from, crisis management. It is an
early
assessment for sure, as all three countries covered (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) werestill subject to financial assistance programmes at the time of writing. Yet it is necessary:three years after the first Greek programme started, in spring 2010, policymakers and citizensdeserve to be offered a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of what has been achieved,and what has not.This evaluation was carried out independently by Bruegel without having beencommissioned. We benefitted from many discussions with Troika members, and withpolicymakers and experts from crisis countries; we also benefitted from feedback on an earlydraft on the occasion of a workshop held in Brussels on 26 March 2013, and from detailedcomments on a later draft, for which we are indebted to all those who commented. Apreliminary version of the study was presented on 22 April 2013 at the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE) in Washington DC and benefitted from input from JörgAsmussen of the European Central Bank, Servaas Deroose of the European Commission,Reza Moghadam of the IMF and Jacob Kirkegaard of PIIE. We did not get access to anyconfidential documents. In particular, the data presented in this study is all from publicsources.We are grateful to all those who helped us decipher the intricacies of the Troika programmesand improve our assessment. We would also like to thank Adrian Bosshard, HannahLichtenberg and Carlos de Sousa for their very effective assistance in the preparation of thisreport. The authors bear sole responsibility for any remaining errors, and for the viewsexpressed in this report.Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Guntram Wolff May 2013

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