Mathematics - Introduction to Probability Theory

Embed Doc
Copy Link
Readcast
Collections

CommentGo Back

Download

LqwurgxfwlrqwrFrppxqlfdwlrqV|vwhpv

WkhWkhru|riSuredelolw| Suredelolw|Wkhru|

Zk|Suredelolw|

Suredelolw|wkhru|lvdssolhgwrvlwxdwlrqvzkhuh

xqfhuwdlqw

|h{lvwv

1Wkhvhvlwxdwlrqvlqfoxgh 41Wkhfkdudfwhul}dwlrqriwud!fdwwkhlqwhuvhfwlrqXV793dqgShsshuvIhuu|Urdg+l1h1/wkhqxpehuri fduvwkdwfurvvwkhlqwhuvhfwlrqdvdixqfwlrqriwlph, 51WkhsuhglfwlrqriwkhzhdwkhulqEodfnvexuj 61WkhqxpehurivwxghqwvwudyhuvlqjwkhGulooIlhogehwzhhq;=83dqg

<=33rqPrqgd|v 71Wkhwkhupdoo|lqgxfhg+Eurzqldq,prwlrqriprohfxohvlqd +d,frsshuzluh +e,dMIHWdpsolhu Qrwhwkdwwkhodwwhuwzrvlwxdwlrqvzrxoguhvruwlqdskhqrphqrqnqrzqdvqrlvhzkrvhsrzhuzrxog ehdixqfwlrqriwkhWhpshudwxuhriwkhprohfxohv1 Lqdooriwkhvhvlwxdwlrqv/zhfrxogghyhorsdqh{fhoohqwdssur{lpdwlrqrusuhglfwlrqiruhdfkriwkhvh

h{shulphqwv

1Krzhyhu/zhzrxogqhyhuehdeohwrfkdudfwhul}hwkhpzlwkdevroxwhfhuwdlqw|+l1h1/

ghwhuplqlvwl

fdoo|

,1Krzhyhu/zhfrxogfkdudfwhul}hwkhplqdsuredelolvwlfidvklrq+ru

suredelolvwlfdoo|

,yld wkhhohphqwvri

suredelolw|wkhru|

1Wklvlvzkdwzhdwkhuiruhfdvwhuvduhgrlqjzkhqwkh|vd|

Wkhfkdqfhriudlqwrpruurzlv73(

Lqvxfkfdvhvwkh|duhvd|lqjwkdwwkhsuredelolw|rid

udlq

DODG

lv3171Rwkhusuredelolvwlffkdudfwhul}dwlrqv lqfoxgh



Rqhwkhdyhudjh633fduvshuplqxwhfurvvXV793dqgShsshuv

Ihuu|UrdgdwQrrqrqVdwxugd|v1 Wkhfkdqfhvrivrpdq|fduvfurvvlqjwkdwlqwhuvhfwlrqdw;=33DPrqVxqgd|lvyhu|vpdoo



Wkhdyhudjhqrlvhsrzhusurgxfhge|wklvdpsolhulv

"

Z

VflhqwlvwvdqgHqjlqhhuvdsso|wkhwkhrulhvriSuredelolw|dqgUdqgrpSurfhvvhvwrwkrvhuhshdwlqj vlwxdwlrqvlqqdwxuhzkhuh 41Zhfdq

urxjko|suhglfw

zkdwpd|kdsshq1 51Zhfdqqrw

h{dfwo|ghwhuplqh

zkdwpd|kdsshq Zkhqhyhuzhfdqqrwh{dfwo|suhglfwdqrffxuuhqfh/zhvd|wkdwvxfkdqrffxuuhqfhvlv

udqgrp1

Udqgrp rffxuuhqfhvrffxuiruwkhiroorzlqjuhdvrqv



Doowkhfdxvdoirufhvdwzrunduhxqnqrzq1



Lqvx!flhqwgdwdiruwkhfrqglwlrqvriwkhsureohpgrqrwh{lvw



Wkhsk|vlfdophfkdqlvpvgulylqjwkhsureohpduhvrfrpsolfdwhgwkdwwkhgluhfwfdofxodwlrqriwkh sureohplvqrwihdvleoh



Wkhuhh{lvwvvrphedvlflqghwhuplqdf|lqwkhsk|vlfdozruog

WkhQrwlrqvriSuredelolw|

Rqhfdqdssurdfksuredelolw|wkurxjkdqdevwudfwpdwkhpdwlfdofrqfhswfdoohg

phdvxuhwkhru|

/zklfk uhvxowvlqwkh

d{lrpdwlfwkhru|risuredelolw|

/ruwkurxjkkhxulvwlfdssurdfkfdoohg

uhodwlyhiuhtxhqf|

/zklfk lvdohvvfrpsohwh+dqgvoljkwo|dzhg,ghqlwlrqrisuredelolw|1Krzhyhu/lwvxlwvrxuqhhgiruwklvfrxuvh1 Vwxghqw*vwkdwfrqwlqxhrqwrjudgxdwhvwxglhvzlooehlqwurgxfhgwrwkhpruhdevwudfwexwsrzhuixo d{lrpdwlfwkhru|1

Ehiruhfrqwlqxlqjlwlvqhfhvvdu|wrghqhwkhiroorzlqjlpsruwdqwwhupv

Ghqlwlrq4

Dq

h{shulphqw

lvdvhwriuxohvwkdwjryhuqvdvshflfrshudwlrqwkdwlvehlqjshuiruphg 4

Gh

qlwlrq5

D

wuldo

lvwkhshuirupdqfhruh{huflvhriwkdw

h{shulphqw

Gh

qlwlrq6

Dq

rxwfrph

lvwkhuhvxowridjlyhq

wuldo

G

hqlwlrq7

Dq

DODGM

lvdqrxwfrphrudq|frpelqdwlrqrirxwfrphv

H{dpsoh

"

Frqvlghuwkh

h{shulphqw

rivhohfwlqjdwudqgrprqhfdugiurpdghfnri85sod|lqjfdugvdqg zulwlqjgrzqwkhqxp

ehudqvxlwriwkdwfduhg1Qrwlfhwkdwwkhuxohvduhzhooghqhg

"

1Zhkdyhdghfnrifdugv 51Vrpherg|vhohfwvwkhfdug 61Wkhuhfrugvwkhuhvxow

Vxssrvhvrpherg|ghflghgwrshuirupwkhh{shulphqw1Zhzrxogwkhqvd|wkdwkh2vkhfrqgxfwhgd

wuldo

1

Wkhuhvxowriwkdwwuldofrxogkdyhehhqwkh

$HELI@CDL

+ru

$

R

,1Khqfhwkhrxwfrphzrxogeh=

$

R

1Dqrwkhu rxwfrphfrxogkdyhehhq

"!

Q

ru

M



1Lqghhgwkhuhduhdvpdq|dv

85srvvleohrxwfrphv

1 Dqhyhqwlvdfroohfwlrqrisrvvleohrxwfrphv1Vr

$

R

lvdqhyhqw1Krzhyhu/

"!

Q

lvdovrdqhyhqw/dqg

M



lv dqhyhqwdvzhoo1Ixuwkhu

i

$



>M



j

/

i

$



>

"!

j

/dqg

i

#



>

&



>

N



>D



j

duhdovrhyhqwv1

Dq|frpelqdwlrq risrvvleohrxwfrphvlvdqhyhqw

1Qrwhwkdwiruwklvh{shulphqw/wkhuhduh

5

&#

@7

=

8368<<95:6:



"

!

"&

glhuhqwhyhqwv

WkhD{lrpdwlfWkhru|riSuredelolw|

Wklvlvdfwxdoo|dqdssolfdwlrqridpdwkhpdwlfdowkhru|fdoohg

2D@L

xuhWkhru|

1Erwkwkhrulhvdsso| edvlffrqfhswviurp

vhwwkhru|

1 Wkh

d{lrpdwlfwkhru|risuredelolw|

lvedvhgrqdwulsohw

+

>

(

>

S

,

zkhuh





lv

wkh

vdpsohvsdfh

/zklfklvwkhvhwridoosrvvleohrxwfrphv



(

lvwkh

vljpddojheud

ru

vljpdho

C

/zklfklvwkhvhwridoosrvvleohhyhqwv+rufrpelqdwlrqri rxwfrphv,



5

lvwkh

suredelolw|ixqfwlrq

/zklfkfdqeh

dq|vhwixqfwlrq/

zkrvh

grpdlq

lv



dqgwkh

udqjh

lvwkhforvhgxqlwlqwhuydo

^3

>

4`

>

l1h1/dq|qxpehuehwzhhq3dqg4lqfoxglqj3dqg41Wkhrqo| uhtxluhphqwiruwklvixqfwlrqlvwkdwlwpxvwreh|wkhiroorzlqjwkuhhuxohv +d,

S

^



`@4

+e,Ohw

,

ehdq|hyhqwlq

(

/wkhq

5

^

,

`



3

+

f,Ohw

,

dqg

-

ehwzrhyhqwvlq

@

vxfkwkdw

,

_

-

@



/wkhq

5

^

,

^

-

`@

5

^

,

`.

5

^

-

`

UhodwlyhIuhtxhqf|Ghqlwlrq1

Wkhuhodwlyhiuhtxhqf|dssurdfklvedvhgrqwkhiroorzlqjghqlwlrq=Vxssrvhzhfrqgxfwdodujhqxpehu riwuldovriwklvdjlyhqh{shulphqw1Wkhsuredelolw|wkdwdjlyhqhyhqw/vd|

,

>

lvwkhiroorzlqjolplw

S

^

,

`@olp

G

"

G

,

G

+4, zkhuh

G

,

lvwkhqxpehurirffxuuhqfhvdqg

G

lvwkhqxpehuriwuldov1 Iruh{dpsohvxssrvhzhfrqgxfwwkhderyhh{shulphqw

"

3

>

333

wlphv

+

q

@43333,

1Ixuwkhuvxssrvhwkh hyhqw

,

@

i

6

j

rffxuuhg

4;;

wlphv

+

G

,

@4;;,

1Wkhq

G

,

G

@ 4;; 43333 @3

=

34;;

D

v

G

lqfuhdvhgwrlqqlw|+dqgdvvxplqjwkdwwkhfdugvduhidlu,/wkhqwkhudwlrzrxogdssurdfkwkh suredelolw|ri

,

5

^

,

`@olp

G

"

G

,

G

@ 4 85 @3

=

34<9

#

8NII

rvhwkhhyhqw

-

zdvwkhvhwridoovsdghv1Wkhq

-

(

E

,



>

5



>

6



>

7



>

8



>

9



>

:



>

;



>

<



>

43



>M



>T



>N

j

Qrzzhvd|wkdw

Wkhhyhqw

-

rffxuvzkhqhyhudqrxwfrphlvridwuldolvfrqwdlqhglq

-

1Lqwk

lv fdvh/zkhqhyhuwkhrxwfrphridwuldofrqwdlqvd

R

/wkhrxwfrphehorqjvwr

-

dqgzhvd|wkdw

-

rffxuuhg1 Vr/vxssrvhzhfrqgxfwhgwkhderyhh{shulphqw

"

!

>

!!!

wlphv/dqgwkhhyhqw

-

rffxuuhg

$

!!!

wlphv1Wkhq

G

-

G

(

$!!! "!!!! (!

=

$

Dv

q

lqfuh

dvhgwrlqqlw|+dqgdvvxplqjwkdwwkhfdugvduhidlu,/wkhqwkhudwlrzrxogdssurdfkwkh suredelolw|ri

-

5

^

-

`@olp

G

"

G

-

G

(

" % (!

=

#&

Qrwhwk

dwwklvghqlwlrqpdnhvvhqvh1Vlqfh

5

^

-

<(

" %

/lwiroorzvwk

dwwkhfkdqfhri

-

rffxuulqjlqdq| jlyhqwuldolv

58(

1Vlploduo|/wkhfkdqfhrid

7



rffxuulqjiurpdsduwlfxoduwuldolv

+4

@

85,



433

ru

4

=

<(

1 Kr

zhyhu/qrwhwkdwwkh

suredelolw|

ridq|hyhqwzloo

dozd|vehdqxpehuehwzhhq3dqg4

1 Qrz/vxssrvhwkhhyhqw

.

frqvlvwvriwkhvhwridoogldprqgv1Wkhq

.

(

E

,



>

5



>

6



>

7



>

8



>

9



>

:



>

;



>

<



>

43



>M



>T



>N

j

Ohw*vorrndwerwk

-

dqg

.

1Qrwhwkdwqrqhriwkhphpehuvlq

-

ehorqjwr

.

dqgqrqhriwkhphpehuvlq

.

ehorqjwr

-

1Zhvd|wkdw

-

dqg

.

duh

C

lvmrlqw

dqgwkdwwkhlu

lqw

huvhfwlrq

lvwkh

hpsw|vhw

-

_F

(



Lqwklvfdvhwkhsuredelolw|rihlwkhu

-

HK

.

rffxuulqjlvhtxdowr

5

^

-

HK

.

`@olp

G

"

G

-

.

G

.

G

@

5

^

-

^F

<

+5, zkhuhwkh

^

v|perovwdqgviruwkh

xqlrq

riwzrvhwv1Qrwhwkdw+5,ghvfulehvwkhdgglwlyhfrqfhswri suredelolw|=

Liwz

rhyhqwvduhglvmrlqw/wkhqwkhsuredelolw|riwkhluvxplvwkhvxpriwkhlu suredelolwlhv1

Ilqdoo|/ohwwkhhyhqw



htxdodoosrvvleohrxwfrph1Zhfdoo



wkh

fhuwdlqhyhqw

ruwkh

vdpsohvsdfh

1Vlqfh h

yhu|srvvleohrxwfrphlvfrqwdlqhglqwklvhyhqw/

G



(

G

1Wkhuhiruh

5

^`@olp

G

"

G



G

(

olp

G

"

G G

@4

+6,

H{dpsoh5

Frqvlghuwkhh{shulphqwrilsslqjdidlufrlqwzlfhdqgrevhuylqjwkhr

xwsxw1Zkdwduhwkh srvvleohrxwfrphvBOlvwdoosrvvleohhyhqwv1Dvvxphwkdwdoorxwfrphvduhhtxdoo|olnho|/dvvljqsuredelolwlhv wrhdfkhyhqw1 Wkhvhwridoosrvvleohrxwfrphvlv



@

i

KK>KW>WK>WW

j

Wkhuhduh

#

%

("'

hyhqwv1Wkh|duh

i

KK

j

>

i

KW

j

>

i

WK

j

>

i

WW

j i

KK>KW

j

>

i

KK>WK

j

>

i

KK>WW

j

>

i

KW>WK

j

>

i

KW>WW

j

>

i

WK>WW

j i

KK>KW>WK

j

>

i

KK>KW>WW

j

>

i

KK>WK>WW

j

>

i

KW>WK>WW

j i

KK>KW>WK>WW

j

>!

Qrwhwkdw

i

KK>KW>WK>WW

j

lvwkhfhuwdlqhyhqw1Wkhuhiruh

S

^

i

KK>KW>WK>WW

j

`@4

+7,

Krzhyhu/iurpwkhdgglwlyhsurshuw|/lwiroorzvwkdw

5

^

i

KK>KW>WK>WW

j

<

@

S

^

i

KK

j

`.

S

^

i

KW

j

`.

S

^

i

WK

j

`.

S

^

i

WW

j

`

+8,

exwvlqfhhdfkrxwfrphlvhtxdoo|olnho|zhkdyhwkdw

5

^

i

KK

j

`@

S

^

i

KW

j

`@

S

^

i

WK

j

`@

S

^

i

WW

j

`

+9, 6

of 00

Leave a Comment