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Imf Weo April 2013

Imf Weo April 2013

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Published by: Nikolay Dzis-Voynarovskiy on May 28, 2013
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07/31/2013

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World
 
Economic
 
Outlook
Hopes, Realities, RisksApril 2013
Thomas Helbling
Research Department, International Monetary Fund
 
 
Road map
State of the global economy: risks are down but forecasts are notup
The three-speed global economy
 –
Euro area: stuck in low gear
 –
US, other advanced economies (AE): shift from public to private demand in train
 –
Emerging market and developing countries (EMDE): resilient growth but risks of financial excesses and concerns about structural bottlenecks
Analytical chapters
 –
The dog that did not bark
 –
Breaking through the frontier
 
80
85
9095
100
105110
115
120
   1   9   9   7   1   9   9   8   1   9   9   9   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   2   2   0   0   3   2   0   0   4   2   0   0   5   2   0   0   6   2   0   0   7   2   0   0   8   2   0   0   9   2   0   1   0   2   0   1   1   2   0   1   2   2   0   1   3   2   0   1   4   2   0   1   5   2   0   1   6
Actual and WEOProjectionPreCrisis Trend 2/-16
-14
-12-10-8-6-4-2
0
-101234567Current Crisis 2008 1/Japan 1997Sweden 1991Estimated Mean Path of Previous Crises
Advanced Economies with SystemicBanking Crises 1/
1/ Crisis Countries include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States.2/ The precrisis trend is estimated based on the window from 10 to 3 years before the crisis.Sources: World Bank; and IMF staff estimates.
3
Output Dynamics after Banking Crises
(Output in percent of pre-crisis trend; years from crisis on x-axis)
Growth and Recovery in Advanced Economies
(Real PPP GDP per capita)
 
Hope: move on after financial crisisReality: Still grappling with the crisis legacy
3-speed global economy

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