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Contents
♦ Introduction to the concept of “inflation” – Wholesale Price Index and Consumer Price Index
♦ Money losing value due to reduction in purchasing power
♦ Concept of interest as compensation in purchasing power of money
♦ Four tier structure for rates of interest in any economy
♦ Compounding and discounting processes
♦ Application of time value of money to business decisions
♦ Numerical exercises for practice
price index increase is also published regularly. At present the wholesale price index inflation is around 3%. We will
explain this concept through an example.
Example no. 1
I had spent Rs. 100/- in getting a basket of commodities one year ago. If the rate of inflation is say 3%, now I will be
required to spend Rs. 103/- to get the same basket of commodities. How do we get Rs.103/-? Rs. 100/- x 1.03 = Rs.
103/-. This means that due to “inflation”, the purchasing power of the local currency decreases with the passage of
time. This is exactly the concept of “time value of money”. In simple words, “time value of money” means that with
the passage of time, money loses its value.
Is there a situation in which the prices decrease over a period of time and opposite of “inflation” takes
place?
Usually in a developing country, such a situation does not arise, as the demand is always greater than supply.
However currently Japan is experiencing “deflation” in which current prices would be less than the past prices. This
is harmful to a developing economy, as units that save money would get very low interest or no interest. Hence there
will be no incentive for the units to invest money in bonds, fixed deposits etc.
1
“Rate of inflation coming down” - What does it mean? Does it mean that the prices of commodities are coming down or the increase in prices of
commodities is coming down? – Answer is: The increase in prices of commodities is coming down; in actual terms, the prices of commodities are
not reducing.
The starting point for any interest is the rate of inflation in the economy. Like for example, in India at present, it is
around 3% now. We have seen earlier that interest is the compensation for loss of purchasing power of Indian Rupee.
This loss is due to the phenomenon of “inflation”. We have also learnt that the banks would normally offer a rate of
interest higher than the rate of inflation. Based on this, let us construct a 4-tier system of interest rates. This would
build up stage-wise rates of interest till investment in a project.
Tier 1 – Rate of inflation, say 3%
Tier 2 – Rate of interest on investment say in bank deposit
Rate of inflation + some compensation from the acceptor of deposits, say banks. = 3% + 4% = 7%, that is the lowest
interest offered by a public sector bank now on fixed deposits. The exact premium paid to the depositor depends on
the following:
♦ The duration of the deposit – the longer the duration, the higher the premium and vice-versa. That is why
the longer duration deposits would attract higher rates of interest and shorter duration deposits would have
a lower rate of interest.
♦ The need for deposits by the banking company for a specific period. The bank would offer a higher rate for
that period. Suppose a bank wants more deposits for six months rather than one year. It will attract deposits
for six months by offering higher rate of interest than the market.
Tier 3 – What does the bank do with the deposits that it accepts? It gives loans. The rate of interest on loans becomes
the next tier, Tier 3.
What are the factors that a bank would consider to determine its lending rate?
Average interest paid out on deposits and expenses
Minimum expected profit from lending operations
Degree of risk in lending – specific to a borrower, depending upon his business
Continuing discussion on Tier 3, we see that the minimum rate of interest on loans would be 7% + 3% + 1% = 11%.
This is the lowest interest that any bank offers now in India on loans. There is a specific name for this rate. It is
referred to as “Prime Lending Rate” or PLR. The bank would add further to this rate depending upon risk etc., which
is called “risk premium”2. This would again be different from borrower to borrower.
2
This is the reason that for different activities, the same bank charges different rates of interest at the same time. Similarly for
different borrowers pursuing the same activity, the rates of interest would be different as per perception of risk associated with
them.
Why should a project owner expect a higher rate of return than the rate of interest on loans?
Consider the following and learn the risk associated with a project.
♦ The project owner’s investment does not have the backing of assets. A lender, on the contrary, has backing
of assets for his loan.
♦ The enterprise pays the lender interest periodically. The owners on the contrary, get return in the form of
dividend. This is not certain.
♦ Besides interest, the enterprise should also have sufficient surplus after paying interest to repay the loan
amount
♦ Risk of project failure affects the owners more than the lenders for the same reason as mentioned in the first
bullet point
Example No. 2
Let us summarise the above as under:
Rate of inflation = Tier no. 1 = 3% p.a.
Rate of interest on investment = Tier no. 2 = 7% p.a.
Rate of interest on loans = Tier no. 3 = 11% p.a.
Rate of return from investment in projects = Tier no. 4 = 15% p.a. (This is just an example. The rate of return expected
from a project would actually depend upon the degree of risk associated with the project in the perception of the
project owners primarily and project lenders secondarily)
n
(1 + r/100) is known as compounding factor.
Let us apply this formula to another investment example and determine the future value.
Example no. 3
You have a fixed deposit for Rs.10,000/- in a bank. Terms of deposit are:
Period – Two years
Rate of interest = 10% p.a.
The bank does not pay interest periodically. Interest gets accumulated to the principal amount; it gets paid at the end
of the period along with principal amount.
What is the future value of this investment?
The future value is Rs.12,100/-. In the compounding formula, by substituting 10% for “r” and 2 for “n”, we get this
value. The break-up of principal and interest amount for the period of investment, i.e., two years is as under:
Principal – Rs.10,000/-
Interest – Rs.2,100/-
Does the future value alter with the change in the frequency of compounding?
In the above example, we have assumed that the bank pays interest at the frequency of one year. Suppose the bank
pays interest at a higher frequency, would the future value turn out to be different? Let us see the following example.
Example no. 4
Suppose the bank increases the frequency of compounding from yearly to half-yearly. What will be the future value?
We can use the same formula with an amendment. The amended formula would be:
With these values, the future value FV at T2 works out to 10,000 x (1.05) 4 = Rs.12,155/-.
Similarly we can see that in case the frequency of compounding increases to quarterly from half-yearly, the future
value works out to Rs. 12,184/-.
Let us summarise what we have learnt so far on “compounding and future value”:
♦ The amount that you get back at the end is called “future value”
♦ Future value is determined by “compounding”
♦ Future value depends upon:
♦ Rate of interest and
♦ Frequency of compounding
♦ The multiplying factor is known as “compounding factor”
♦ The more the frequency, the higher the amount of interest
Doubling period
A frequent question posed by an investor is: “How much time it will take for my investment to double in value”?
This question can be answered by a rule known as “Rule of 72”. It is an approximate way of finding out the doubling
period. Suppose the rate of interest is 12%. The doubling period is 6 years.
A more accurate answer can be had by a better formula like:
0.35 + 69/interest rate in % terms. Employing the same rate of 12%, we find that the doubling period is 6.10 years
instead of 6 years. This is more accurate than the Rule of 72 formula.
exactly the opposite of the earlier future value situation. The investment at T 0 should increase to the desired future
value at a desired rate of interest. The process of determining the present value from future value is known as
“discounting”. “Discounting” is converse of “compounding”.
Example no. 5
We want to get Rs.108/- at the end of T1. The desired rate of interest is 8% per annum. What is the amount that we
should invest at T0?
Can we use the “future value” formula here?
Yes – with necessary modification as under:
n
Future value = Present investment x (1 + r/100)
--------------------
n
(1 + r/100)
The reciprocal of compounding factor is referred to as “discounting factor. We need to multiply the future value by
n
this discounting factor and not divide. In the above formula, 1/(1+r/100) is referred to as “discounting factor”.
Discounting factor = 1/compounding factor; discounting factor x compounding factor = 1. Discounting factor
would always be less than 1.
Example no. 6
We want to get Rs.10,000/- after two years. The desired rate of interest is 12% p.a. The frequency of is yearly.
What is the present value of this future sum of Rs.10,000/-?
Present value = Rs. 7,971/-
The two-step process in determining present value is:
We have already seen under “future value” that higher frequency of compounding increases the future value.
Conversely, higher frequency of discounting decreases the present value. The students are advised to take the
following exercise and verify for themselves.
Exercise No. 1
After three years we are likely to get a windfall of Rs.1,00,000/-. What will be the present value of this windfall, in
case the expected rate of return is 15% p.a.?
Answer – Rs.65,751/-
Let us summarise what you have learnt so far on “discounting and present value”:
♦ Discounting is the converse of compounding
♦ It is used when you want to determine the present value of a future sum
♦ Just as there is a compounding factor, there is a discounting factor
♦ In case you determine the discounting factor, you should multiply the future value by this factor to get the
present value
♦ The more the frequency the of discounting, the less will be the value of present value
♦ Present value will always be less than future value by the same token of inflation.
T1 – Rs.30 lacs
T2 – Rs.35 lacs
T3 – Rs.40 lacs
T4 – Rs.45 lacs
We want to evaluate our investment decision in the project. How do we do this? By applying discounting factor for
20% to the future earnings.
The “sum total” of all the T0 values = Rs.94.13 lacs = Present value of future earnings for a period of four years.
What does this mean? It means that at 20% expected return the project has given back only Rs.94.13 lacs. This is
against Rs.100 lacs that have been invested in it. That is, the present value of future earnings is less than original
investment. Hence we will not invest in the project. The difference between the present value of future earnings and the
investment at T0 is called the “Net present value” or NPV. This is one of the fundamental methods of selecting a
project.
Exercise No. 2
We are investing in a project Rs. 1000 lacs. The rate of return that we expect from the project is 18% p.a. The estimated
future earnings for three years are:
T1 = Rs.450 lacs
T2 = Rs.500 lacs
T3 = Rs.550 lacs
The above are also referred to as cash flows 3(in this case cash inflows)
Examine as to whether it is worthwhile investing in the project. Find out the Net Present Value of the project.
Answer:
Present value of future earnings = Rs.1071 lacs
Net Present Value = Rs.71 lacs
We can invest in the project
3
Cash flow could either be cash inflow or cash outflow. When an investment is made at T 0 it is called “cash out flow”. Similarly when returns are
received they are called “cash in flows. Cash out flow is denoted by mentioning the figure within bracket like (50 lacs)
2 Rs.100/-
3 Rs.100/-
4 Rs.100/-
5 Rs.1100/-
Step 2 = discounting the payment expected by the rate of return, i.e., 8% p.a., we can determine the present value of
the future cash flows. It is Rs.1080.30. This means that an investor will be willing to purchase this bond now from the
market provided the market price of this bond is less than Rs.1080.30.
Exercise No. 3
We have a bond with the face value of Rs.5,000/-. The interest on the bond is Rs.600/- per year. We are supposed to
get a premium on the bond of Rs.250/- at the end of the maturity period. Expected rate of return by us = 10% p.a.
Suppose the maturity is after 5 years, what is the price at which an investor would be willing to purchase it from us?
(Note – please add the premium amount to the face value. You will get Rs.5,250/- on maturity)
Answer: Present value of future returns = Rs.5534/-. An investor will be willing to pay anything less than this
value for purchasing the bond from you.
This is similar to finding out the net present value in the case of projects. We discount the expected sales by the
expected rate of return of 15% p.a. This determines the present value of the expected sales. Let us compare this with
the total product development expenses.
Exercise No. 4
Find out the net present value in the above example. Also confirm that the total product development costs stand
fully recovered at T3.
Let us summarise what we have learnt on application of “Time value of money” to business
♦ Compounding and discounting have a number of applications to Finance decisions.
♦ Compounding has greater application to personal investment while discounting has greater application to
business.
♦ Discounting is useful in a number of decisions like project, product development, opening a branch office
etc.
♦ Bond valuation is also done through discounting.
Let us look at one more example for reinforcing our learning. Let us select the best project out of the
three projects proposed.
Consider the following 3 alternative projects. Assumptions are also given below:
(Rupees in Lacs)
Project 1 Project 2 Project 3
As Project 3 has the highest NPV it would be selected. NPV = PV of future earnings (-) original investment.
Accordingly, the net present values for the three projects would be:
Project 1 76.44 lacs
Concept of annuity
So far we have seen the following in respect of application of time value of money:
Investment lump sum at T0 and get lump sum at Tn = Future value; process is “compounding”. This is called future
value of a single stream.
Suppose we are given a future value and want to know how much should be invested at present. We use the process
that is converse of compounding and this is called “discounting”. In order to get lump sum after a given period, we
should invest the present value at the beginning, again a lump sum. This is called the present value of a single
stream.
Invest lump sum at T0 in a project and get annual returns. The returns will not be equal to each other. To determine
the present value of the future returns to determine Net Present Value = Present value; process is “discounting”. This
is the example of present value of multiple streams.
Annuity refers to “multiple stream” of cash flows but which are equal to each other and occurring annually. The
cash flows could either be in flows or out flows. This means that the following alternatives are available to us when
we are talking of “annuity”.
♦ We invest at the beginning one lump sum amount and get returns over a period of time that are equal
to each other. The cash in flows that are equal to each other are called “annuity”. Herein we use what
is known as Present Value Interest Factor Annuity (PVIFA). We multiply the Annuity by this factor
and get the present value of the future cash flows in one shot. Then we compare this present value with
our proposed investment at T0 taking decision on investment. We invest provided the Present value of
future annuities is at least equal to our investment at T0.
♦ We invest in equal instalments over a period of time and get one lump sum at the end of the period.
The cash outflows that are equal to each other are called “annuity”. Herein we use what is known as
Future Value Interest Factor Annuity (FVIFA) .We multiply the Annuity by this factor and get the
future value of the cash out flows in one shot.
Let us study the following examples to understand the concept of “annuity”.
Example no. 10
We are able to invest every year Rs.1000/- for a period of 5 years. We expect a return of 10% p.a. What will be the
value of this investment at the end of 5 years?
Let us represent this by way of a timeline
At T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
Investment = zero 1,000/- 1,000/- 1,000/- 1,000/- 1,000/-
Can we use the future value formula, find out the future value of each stream of Rs.1000/- and add them up? Thus T 1
investment would earn interest for 4 years, the 2nd year investment would earn interest for 3 years, the 3rd year
investment would earn interest for 2 years, the 4 th year investment would earn interest for 1 year and the last year
investment would not earn any interest. Instead of doing such an elaborate exercise, we use the alternative “FVIFA”.
Practical applications of “Annuity”4 for future value
4
Annuity could be at a frequency more than one year. In fact in the case of recurring deposit, the annuity is monthly.
Example no. 11
Similar in concept to Example no. 10, we can think of investment lump sum at T0 and getting returns over a period of
time, the returns being equal in value. Example is investment in bank deposit floated by competitive banking
industry at present. Each return will be partly principal amount and partly interest amount. Our aim is to determine
the present value of the future returns by discounting them and comparing the present value with our investment
value.
Can we use PVIF and find out the present value of future cash flows? Yes. The cash flow at T 1 is discounted for one
year, the cash flow at the end of the second year is discounted for two years, the cash flow at the end of the third year
is discounted for three years and so on and so forth. Instead of repeating the discounting process so many times, we
have the easy alternative of Present Value Interest Factor Annuity.
It is okay for discussion. However the students will be interested in knowing as to where he will get the PVIFA and
FVIFA values. These will be available as annexure with any standard textbook on “Financial Management” and
multiply with the annuity to arrive at the Present Value or Future value as the case may be.
Concept of perpetuity
This is the concept applicable in the case of pension. Pension is taken to be perpetual. Can we find out the lump sum
amount in case the pension amount is given?
Example no. 12
Suppose the pension amount is Rs. 1000/-. The expected rate of return is 10% p.a. What is the core amount out of
which interest is paid? The annual payment is Rs.12,000/-. Hence the lump sum amount is Annual payment/rate of
interest expressed in decimals.
Accordingly the lump sum amount is Rs. 12,000/0.1 = Rs. 1,20,000/-.
8. What is the present value of Rs. 5,000/- receivable annually for 30 years if the first receipt occurs after 5 years
and the rate of interest is 10% p.a?