2EconomicsGlobal11 January 2012
It is not just about population. Ukraine is set to jump 19 places to fortieth because of its education systemand rule of law, even though its population is set to fall to 36m from 45m.
We divide the Top 100 into three categories: 1) fast growth – with expected average annual growth of more than 5%; 2) growth – with expected annual growth of between 3% and 5%; and 3) stable – thosecountries expected to expand less than 3% a year.
We identify 26
countries. They share a very low level of development but have made greatprogress in improving fundamentals. As they open themselves to the technology available elsewhere, theyshould enjoy many years of ‘copy and paste’ growth ahead. Besides China, India, the Philippines andMalaysia, this category includes Bangladesh, the central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan andTurkmenistan, Peru and Ecuador in Latin America, and Egypt and Jordan in the Middle East.
category extends to 43 countries. It includes 11 Latin American countries such as Brazil,Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic; Turkey, Romania and the CzechRepublic in central and eastern Europe; as well as the war-ravaged Iraq and Yemen.
Africa will finally start to emerge from economic obscurity. Five of our fast-growth countries come fromSub-Saharan Africa and three are in the growth category.
Most of the economies in our ‘
group are in the developed world. The West is not getting poorer,but high levels of income per capita and weak demographics will limit growth. It is the small-population,ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the table.
Our Top 30 list changes slightly. Our forecasts for the countries considered in the original documenthave not changed, but after expanding the pool of countries considered, Peru, the Philippines andPakistan leapfrog into the Top 30. Pakistan makes it into the top league, less because of individualprosperity, than because of population size.
This research strengthens the conclusions of the original report, which found that 19 of the top 30economies will be countries that are currently ‘emerging’. Our update shows that it is not just the likes of China and India that will be powering global growth over the next four decades. Countries as varied asNigeria, Peru and the Philippines will also be playing a significant part.
1. Global growth will be powered by the emerging markets
0.01.02.03.04.01970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s0.01.02.03.04.0Developed MarketsEmerging marketsGlobal
%%Contributions to global growth
Source: HSBC estimates