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Anz Gdp q1 2013 Gdp Preview (4 June 2013)

Anz Gdp q1 2013 Gdp Preview (4 June 2013)

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07/10/2013

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4 JUNE 2013CONTRIBUTORS
Justin FaboHead of AustralianEconomics, Corporate andCommercial
+61 2 9227 1646 justin.fabo@anz.com
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATEAUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS
ANZ RESEARCH
FINAL AUSTRALIAN Q1 2013 GDP PREVIEWANZ: +0.8% q/q, +2.7% y/yLast: +0.6% q/q, +3.1% y/y
 
After digesting the various partial indicators,
we have lowered our Q1 GDPgrowth forecast to +0.8% q/q
from the preliminary estimate of around1% q/q. Our bottom-up expenditure-side (GDP(E)) growth forecasts bycomponent are presented in Figure 1.
 
The underlying themes that we initially expected from the national accounts,however, remain unchanged. That is,
domestic final demand growth islikely to have been weak again in Q1 and the traded sector contributedsignificantly to GDP growth.
 
We expect Q1 expenditure-based GDP growth to have been a little higher thanour average GDP estimate, with our estimate of income-based GDP growth alittle lower.
 
Australia’s terms of trade rose a solid 2.7% q/q in Q1.
As a result, realnational income – i.e. real GDP adjusted for the terms of trade – is expected tohave risen by more than real GDP in Q1. Nominal GDP growth is expected tohave been around 1.7% q/q and 3.4% y/y. Importantly, the prices of Australia’sbulk commodity exports, particularly iron ore, have weakened again recently.
FIGURE 1: Q1 2013 GDP COMPONENT FORECASTS
y/y % changeCont’n to q/qgrowth (ppts)Dec-12Mar-13Mar-13Mar-13
Real GDP (A)0.60.82.7-
Household consumption0.20.82.00.4Dwelling investment2.10.01.00.0Business investment
1
-5.53.84.70.7New machinery & equipment-2.5-3.2-0.8-0.2New building3.8-1.08.30.0New engineering3.7-1.512.2-0.1
Underlying business investment
2
1.2-1.96.1-0.4
Public demand
1
4.9-3.3-0.8-0.8
Underlying public demand
2
-0.71.4-1.80.3
Domestic final demand0.30.31.70.3
Change in inventories (contribution to growth)-0.4-0.3-0.7-0.3Gross national expenditure-0.10.01.00.0Net exports (contribution to growth)0.61.02.21.0Exports3.31.18.10.2Imports0.7-3.5-2.00.7Statistical discrepancy (E) -- -- ---0.2
1. Not adjusted for net purchases of second-hand assets2. Excluding net purchases of second-hand assets
q/q % change
 
Sources: ABS, ANZ
 
Australian Economic Update / 4 June 2013 / 2 of 4
DETAILS BY EXPENDITURE COMPONENT
 
Household consumption is expected to have risen by around 0.8% q/q inQ1.
Retail trade volumes increased by a strong 2.2% q/q in Q1 and while thesedata are not a direct input into the GDP numbers, it might suggest some upsiderisk to our consumption growth forecast. Motor vehicle sales growth appears tohave eased substantially in the quarter.
 
 
Dwelling investment is forecast to have been broadly unchanged in Q1.
Building approvals figures point to slower growth in new house construction in Q1than in Q4 2012 and weakness in alterations & additions. The
Construction Work Done
release led us to downwardly revise our forecast for total dwellinginvestment growth from +0.6% q/q to be broadly unchanged.
 
 
Partial indicators of new private business investment printed weakerthan we had expected.
The
CAPEX 
release suggested that machinery andequipment investment fell sharply again in Q1, possibly by around 3% q/q. The
CAPEX 
and
Construction Work Done
releases together point to a contraction innew non-residential building and engineering construction in Q1. Putting all thistogether, we expect new business investment to have fallen close to 2% q/q.
 
Today’s
Government Finance Statistic
suggest that underlying publicdemand contributed around 0.3ppts to Q1 GDP growth.
This was strongerthan we expected. Public consumption grew 0.5% q/q in Q1 and new publicinvestment was estimated to have risen a sharp 4.9% q/q following significantweakness in the prior two quarters.
 
Yesterday’s
Business Indicators
release suggested that
private non-farminventories are likely to have subtracted around 0.1ppts from Q1 GDPgrowth.
We assume minimal effects from farm and public-sector inventories.
 
 
Net exports contributed 1.0ppt to Q1 GDP growth based on today’s
Balance of Payments 
figures.
This was a little stronger than our 0.8pptexpectation, driven by stronger-than-expected exports growth. There was amodest upward revision to net exports’ contribution to growth in Q4 2012.
 
 
 
IMPORTANT NOTICE
The distribution of this document or streaming of this video broadcast (as applicable, “publication”) may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons who receive this publication must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions.
1. COUNTRY/REGION SPECIFIC INFORMATION:AUSTRALIA.
 
This publication is distributed in Australia by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ABN 11 005 357 522)(“ANZ”). ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527. A copy of ANZ's Financial Services Guide is available athttp://www.anz.com/documents/AU/aboutANZ/FinancialServicesGuide.pdf and is available upon request from your ANZ point of contact.If trading strategies or recommendations are included in this publication, they are solely for the information of ‘wholesale clients’ (asdefined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 Cth). Persons who receive this publication must inform themselves about andobserve all relevant restrictions.
 
BRAZIL.
This publication is distributed in Brazil by ANZ on a cross border basis and only following request by the recipient. Nosecurities are being offered or sold in Brazil under this publication, and no securities have been and will not be registered with theSecurities Commission - CVM.
BRUNEI. JAPAN. KUWAIT. MALAYSIA. SWITZERLAND. TAIPEI.
 
This publication is distributed in each of Brunei, Japan, Kuwait,Malaysia, Switzerland and Taipei by ANZ on a cross-border basis.
 
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA (“EEA”): UNITED KINGDOM.
 
A
NZ is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the FinancialServices Authority (“FSA”). This publication is distributed in the United Kingdom by ANZ solely for the information of persons who wouldcome within the FSA definition of “eligible counterparty” or “professional client”. It is not intended for and must not be distributed to anyperson who would come within the FSA definition of “retail client”. Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customerwhich ANZ may have under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the FSA.
 
GERMANY.
 
This publication is distributed in Germany by the Frankfurt Branch of ANZ solely for the information of its clients
.
OTHER EEA COUNTRIES.
 
This publication is distributed in the EEA by ANZ Bank (Europe) Limited (“ANZBEL”) which is authorised andregulated by the FSA in the United Kingdom, to persons who would come within the FSA definition of “eligible counterparty” or “professional client” in other countries in the EEA. This publication is distributed in those countries solely for the information of suchpersons upon their request. It is not intended for, and must not be distributed to, any person in those countries who would come withinthe FSA definition of “retail client”.
FIJI.
For Fiji regulatory purposes, this publication and any views and recommendations are not to be deemed as investment advice. Fijiinvestors must seek licensed professional advice should they wish to make any investment in relation to this publication.
 
HONG KONG.
This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by the Hong Kong branch of ANZ, which is registered by the Hong KongSecurities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising oncorporate finance) regulated activities. The contents of this publication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in HongKong. If in doubt about the contents of this publication, you should obtain independent professional advice.
 
INDIA.
 
This publication is distributed in India by ANZ on a cross-border basis. If this publication is received in India, only you (thespecified recipient) may print it provided that before doing so, you specify on it your name and place of printing. Further copying orduplication of this publication is strictly prohibited.
 
NEW ZEALAND.
 
This publication is intended to be of a general nature, does not take into account your financial situation or goals, andis not a personalised adviser service under the Financial Advisers Act 2008.
 
OMAN.
This publication has been prepared by ANZ. ANZ neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office in Omanand does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently ANZ is not regulated by either the CentralBank of Oman or Oman’s Capital Market Authority. The information contained in this publication is for discussion purposes only andneither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 4/74) orthe Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree 80/98), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law
 
(issued vide CMADecision 1/2009). ANZ does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which ANZ sends information or materialdescribing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested fromANZ and by receiving this publication, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by ANZ understands, acknowledges andagrees that this publication has not been approved by the CBO, the CMA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. ANZ doesnot market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities,products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constituteOmani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice.
PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.
 
If and when the material accompanying this publication does not only relate to the products and/orservices of Australia and New Zealand Bank (China) Company Limited (“ANZ China”), it is noted that: This publication is distributed byANZ or an affiliate. No action has been taken by ANZ or any affiliate which would permit a public offering of any products or services of such an entity or distribution or re-distribution of this publication in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). Accordingly, the productsand services of such entities are not being offered or sold within the PRC by means of this publication or any other method. Thispublication may not be distributed, re-distributed or published in the PRC, except under circumstances that will result in compliance withany applicable laws and regulations. If and when the material accompanying this publication relates to the products and/or services of ANZ China only, it is noted that: This publication is distributed by ANZ China in the Mainland of the PRC.
 
QATAR.
 
This publication has not been, and will not be: lodged or registered with, or reviewed or approved by, the Qatar Central Bank("QCB"), the Qatar Financial Centre ("QFC") Authority, QFC Regulatory Authority or any other authority in the State of Qatar ("Qatar");or authorised or licensed for distribution in Qatar, and the information contained in this publication does not, and is not intended to,constitute a public offer or other invitation in respect of securities in Qatar or the QFC. The financial products or services described inthis publication have not been, and will not be: registered with the QCB, QFC Authority, QFC Regulatory Authority or any othergovernmental authority in Qatar; or authorised or licensed for offering, marketing, issue or sale, directly or indirectly, in Qatar.Accordingly, the financial products or services described in this publication are not being, and will not be, offered, issued or sold inQatar, and this publication is not being, and will not be, distributed in Qatar. The offering, marketing, issue and sale of the financialproducts or services described in this publication and distribution of this publication is being made in, and is subject to the laws,regulations and rules of, jurisdictions outside of Qatar and the QFC. Recipients of this publication must abide by this restriction and notdistribute this publication in breach of this restriction. This publication is being sent/issued to a limited number of institutional and/orsophisticated investors (i) upon their request and confirmation that they understand the statements above; and (ii) on the condition thatit will not be provided to any person other than the original recipient, and is not for general circulation and may not be reproduced orused for any other purpose.
 
SINGAPORE.
 
This publication is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of ANZ solely for the information of “accreditedinvestors”, “expert investors” or (as the case may be) “institutional investors” (each term as defined in the Securities and Futures ActCap. 289 of Singapore). ANZ is licensed in Singapore under the Banking Act Cap. 19 of Singapore and is exempted from holding a

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