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Gallup 2012 polling review

Gallup 2012 polling review

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Published by Brett LoGiurato
Gallup reviews its 2012 election poll failures.
Gallup reviews its 2012 election poll failures.

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Published by: Brett LoGiurato on Jun 04, 2013
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06/04/2013

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June 4, 2013
GALLUP 2012 PRESIDENTIALELECTION POLLING REVIEW
 
 
Gallup 2012 Presidential Election Polling Review 
Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Gallup 2012 Presidential Election Polling Review ...................................................................... 4Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 4Summary of Research Areas ....................................................................................................... 7
 A. Survey and Sample Design Factors .................................................................................................................7
1. Tracking Design ...........................................................................................................................................7 2. RDD List-Assisted Landline vs. Listed Landline Samples ..........................................................................7 
B. Survey Field Management ..............................................................................................................................
8
 
 3. The Gallup Name......................................................................................................................................... 84. Race of Interviewer ..................................................................................................................................... 8 5. Gender of Interviewer ................................................................................................................................. 96.
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....................................................................107. Geographic Distribution of Interviews ......................................................................................................108. Interview Completion Time ....................................................................................................................... 119. Cellphone and Landline Phone Distribution ............................................................................................. 12
C. Data Handling ................................................................................................................................................ 12
10. Measuring and Weighting Race .............................................................................................................. 1211. Handling of Third-Party Candidates ....................................................................................................... 1312. Candidate Name Order in Question......................................................................................................... 1413. Likely Voter Estimating ........................................................................................................................... 14
 Appendix A ............................................................................................................................... 16
 
Gallup 2012 Presidential Election Polling Review 
Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.3
COPYRIGHT STANDARDS
This document contains proprietary research, copyrighted materials, and literary property of Gallup, Inc. It isfor the guidance of your company only and is not to be copied, quoted, published, or divulged to others outsideof your organization. Gallup
®
are trademarks of Gallup, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of theirrespective owners.This document is of great value to both your organization and Gallup, Inc. Accordingly, international anddomestic laws and penalties guaranteeing patent, copyright, trademark, and trade secret protection protect theideas, concepts, and recommendations related within this document.No changes may be made to this document without the express written permission of Gallup, Inc.

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