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AU/AWC/079/1999-04
AIR WAR COLLEGEAIR UNIVERSITY
CHINA: REGIONAL HEGEMON OR TOOTHLESS TIGER?
byJoseph F. Cheney, Lt Col, USAFA Research Report Submitted to the FacultyIn Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation RequirementsAdvisor: Dr. Lawrence E. GrinterMaxwell Air Force Base, AlabamaApril 1999
Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
 
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the author(s) anddo not reflect the official policy or position of the US government or the Department of Defense. In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303, it is not copyrighted, but is theproperty of the United States government.ii
 
Contents
 
Page
DISCLAIMER ....................................................................................................................ii
PREFACE .......................................................................................................................... iv
ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................v
INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................1
WHAT IS HEGEMONY AND WHY DO CHINA’S LEADERS WANT IT?.................. 4
Hegemony: A Framework of Reference ....................................................................... 4
WhyDoes China Seek Hegemony?..............................................................................6
What Form Would Chinese Hegemony Take? ............................................................. 7
WHERE IS CHINA ALONG THE PATH TO HEGEMONY? ....................................... 10
WHAT WILL CHINA DO IN THE NEAR TERM?........................................................ 22
WHERE ARE THE DANGER SPOTS? .......................................................................... 29
HOW SHOULD US POLICY COPE WITH AN ENIGMATIC CHINA? ...................... 37
CONCLUSIONS...............................................................................................................42
BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................................44
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