In Case You Missed It: LOCAL EXPERTS: ABQ ECONOMY TURNING AROUND AMONG OTHER POSITIVE SIGNS, CITY

SEES SIGNIFICANT DIP IN UNEMPLOYMENT ALBUQUERQUE, NM According to an article in Friday's Albuquerque Journal, local experts believe that the worst economic climate since the Great Depression appears to be turning around in the city. Among other positive signs, Albuquerque saw a significant dip in unemployment last month, demonstrating that steady and responsible leadership has put the city on the right track. The article went on to say: "Among the positive signs: Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions of the December jobs report were in an upward direction; construction employment has been growing; and payroll growth, as measured by the states largest workers compensation insurance underwriter, is consistently positive in all areas of the state." The news also comes on the heels of a recent report that showed a 24 percent increase in pending home sales, the highest number since May 2006. ABQ economy: The worst might be over The Albuquerque Journal By Winthrop Quigley Fri, Jun 7, 2013 http://www.abqjournal.com/main/207855/news/the-worst-might-be-over-2.html Aprils employment gains in the Albuquerque metropolitan area marked the best performance the citys economy has seen in four years. While one month does not a trend make, some local experts are allowing themselves to consider the possibility that the worst might be over for an economy that has been staggering long after the national recession ended in 2009. The Department of Workforce Solutions said the Albuquerque Metropolitan Statistical Area gained 2,700 jobs between April 2012 and April 2013, a 0.7 percent growth rate. The department called the job growth numbers positive signs for the MSA that was hit hard during the recession. The MSA includes Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance and Valencia counties. The MSA lost 1,400 jobs year-over-year in March, according to seasonally adjusted Workforce Solutions data, but it still gained 2,200 jobs over February.

State and national labor statistics for May are to be released today. MSA-level data for May wont be available until late June. Workforce Solutions public information officer Joy Forehand said the department isnt celebrating yet, though the latest numbers are exciting. Were starting to see sustained improvement in employment numbers statewide since October, she said. Albuquerque has been the last area to show significant improvement. She cautioned that Aprils good employment numbers will be revised when the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics uses its statistical tools to polish the data. Were cautious, she said. Were watching for a few months to see where the trend is going. Lee Reynis of the University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research believes whats going on is were beginning to see the economy turn around. Among the positive signs: Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions of the December jobs report were in an upward direction; construction employment has been growing; and payroll growth, as measured by the states largest workers compensation insurance underwriter, is consistently positive in all areas of the state. The construction sector has been negative for a very long time, though less negative as we started this year, Reynis said. In April, the sector added 1,000 jobs, possibly because residential real estate values have been improving. Historically in Albuquerque, when construction is doing well other sectors of the economy do well, too. Improvement in construction and rising home prices indicate there is some underlying strength in the economy that is encouraging people to move here, get houses and take jobs, Reynis said. Where that strength is, assuming its really there, is not clear yet. The data do show the MSA continues to add jobs in education and health services, leisure and hospitality (which now represents 40,000 jobs in the Albuquerque area), information, wholesale trade, finance, and in state and local government. Area manufacturers and the professional and business services sector continue to shed jobs. New Mexico Mutual looked at its workers compensation insurance premium data beginning in 2008 to see if they show a trend. Premiums are based on payrolls and can suggest whether New Mexicos employers are increasing the number of hours employees work and the number of workers employed.

Statewide, the analysis showed payrolls grew quarter over quarter for the last eight quarters in a row, said senior vice president Lou Volk. The most recent quarter grew 2 percent from the previous quarter. Over the last two years weve seen sporadic growth in different places around the state, with the exception of southeastern New Mexico, which has been consistent because of oil and gas, said vice president for business development Susan Wilson. What were starting to see now is a more consistent pattern (of growth) across the state instead of surges of local growth triggered by some strictly local phenomenon. An improving economy eventually reveals itself in greater demand for energy. So far that hasnt happened in the Albuquerque area, according to the electric company. PNM Resources spokesman Pahl Shipley said, As of the first quarter, our numbers showed economic growth in the Albuquerque metro area still sluggish. PNMs load forecast is down as much as 1 percent compared to last year. Some of this can be attributed to the economy. However, its also partly due to the fact that our existing customers are becoming more energy efficient and reducing their usage. Shipley added, We have seen the economic data from UNM and other recent statistics regarding increased housing starts and home prices, and we, too, are hopeful the worst is over.