Professional Documents
Culture Documents
t
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
D
27
82
50
51
44
80
61
57
PM
PMC
IE
52.500
56.750
56.250
59.000
60.500
54.625
56.500
57.625
59.750
0.915
0.903
0.764
1.339
IE=
fc=
3.921
1.020
IEprm
0.764
1.339
0.915
0.903
0.764
1.339
0.915
0.903
IEaj=
Parmetros iniciales:
a= 65.471
b=
2.778
IE1=
0.779
IE2=
1.366
IE3=
0.933
IE4=
0.921
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
IEaj
0.779
1.366
0.933
0.921
0.779
1.366
0.933
0.921
3.999
DD
34.660
60.029
53.591
55.375
56.483
58.565
65.380
61.889
Clculo de a y b:
t=
-28
DD= 445.972
t*DD= -1444.208
t^2=
140
n=
8
a= 65.471
b=
2.778
Pronsticos iniciales:
F1/0= 53.166
F2/0= 97.023
F3/0= 68.860
F4/0= 70.533
Coeficientes de suavizacin:
= 0.15
= 0.10
1
2
3
4
MAD
11.476
BIAS% MAD%
-10.40% 13.00%
e^2
96.708
408.242
145.347
14.493
664.790
MSE
166.198
e/D
-0.156
-0.168
-0.142
0.052
-0.414
F
35.853
66.665
48.125
50.065
44.510
81.844
58.493
60.299
|e|
e^2
8.853 78.376
15.335 235.162
1.875
3.516
0.935
0.874
0.510
0.260
1.844
3.400
2.507
6.285
3.299 10.883
35.158 338.756
t*DD
-242.620
-360.174
-267.955
-221.500
-169.449
-117.130
-65.380
0.000
t^2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
BIAS%
1.70%
MAD%
8.80%
65.471
2.778
= 0.05
1
2
3
4
|e|/D
0.156
0.168
0.142
0.052
0.518
e
8.853
-15.335
-1.875
-0.935
0.510
1.844
-2.507
3.299
-6.146
1
2
3
4
140
120
100
80
60
40
Demanda rea
20
Pronstico
0
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
D
30
60
40
35
70
50
45
75
70
52.778
PM
PMC
IE
43.333
45.000
48.333
51.667
55.000
56.667
63.333
43.333
45.000
48.333
51.667
55.000
56.667
63.333
1.385
0.889
0.724
1.355
0.909
0.794
1.184
IE=
fc=
2.966
1.011
IEprm
0.759
1.308
0.899
0.759
1.308
0.899
0.759
1.308
0.899
IEaj=
Parmetros iniciales:
a= 67.677
b=
3.739
IE1=
0.767
IE2=
1.322
IE3=
0.909
1
2
3
Pronsticos iniciales:
F1/0= 54.776
F2/0= 99.355
F3/0= 71.715
IEaj
0.767
1.322
0.909
0.767
1.322
0.909
0.767
1.322
0.909
2.998
DD
39.113
45.386
44.004
45.632
52.950
55.006
58.670
56.732
77.008
Clculo de a y b:
t=
-36
DD= 474.501
t*DD= -1673.680
t^2=
204
n=
9
a= 67.677
b=
3.739
F
28.966
54.868
41.126
37.569
69.697
51.322
46.173
84.526
61.518
e
-1.034
-5.132
1.126
2.569
-0.303
1.322
1.173
9.526
-8.482
0.765
|e|
1.034
5.132
1.126
2.569
0.303
1.322
1.173
9.526
8.482
30.667
MAD%
5.80%
67.677
3.739
F Rnd
55
100
72
Coeficientes de suavizacin:
= 0.15
= 0.10
= 0.05
Al final del periodo 1:
D1=
63
a1= 73.024
b1=
3.900
IE1n=
0.772
IE=
3.003
fc=
0.999
IEnorm1=
0.771
IEnorm2=
1.321
IEnorm3=
0.908
1
F2/1= 101.617
2
F3/1= 73.388
3
F4/1= 65.322
Errores promedio al cabo de
t
F
D
1
54.776
63
2
101.617
80
3
75.224
85
|e|
8.224
21.617
9.776
39.617
e^2
67.634
467.295
95.570
630.499
e/D
-0.131
0.270
-0.115
0.025
|e|/D
0.131
0.270
0.115
0.516
120
100
80
60
60
BIAS
1.206
MAD
13.206
MSE
210.166
40
20
BIAS% MAD%
0.80% 17.20%
0
-8
-7
-6
-5
e^2
1.069
26.337
1.268
6.600
0.092
1.748
1.376
90.745
71.944
201.179
omedio iniciales:
MSE
22.353
t*DD
-312.904
-317.702
-264.024
-228.160
-211.800
-165.018
-117.340
-56.732
0.000
t^2
64
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
e/D
-0.034
-0.086
0.028
0.073
-0.004
0.026
0.026
0.127
-0.121
0.035
|e|/D
0.034
0.086
0.028
0.073
0.004
0.026
0.026
0.127
0.121
0.525
Demanda real
Pronstico
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1