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 Angola
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS May, 12th 2008
 
important
 
your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel : +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : jenny.nordgren@seb.se
 The oil boom in combination with recovery from the civil war supports double-digit growth rates.Elections expected later this year could increase political uncertainty.
Country Risk Analysis
oÉÅçîÉêáåÖ=Ñêçã=íÜêÉÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=Åáîáä=ï~ê
K=qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=Öêçïå=ê~éáÇäó=ëáåÅÉ=~=ÅÉ~ëÉÑáêÉ=ï~ë=~ÅÜáÉîÉÇ=áå=OMMO=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜêÉÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=Åáîáä=ï~êK==jçêÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=~äëç=ÄÉÉå=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=ÜáÖÜ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉëK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖäóI=êÉ~ä=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=êÉÅçêÇÉÇ=ONKN=B=áå=OMMT=Ó=íÜÉ=ÜáÖÜÉëí=ÖêçïíÜ=ê~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=pìÄ=p~Ü~ê~å=êÉÖáçå=Ó=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Äó=~=ëÜ~êé=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=çáä=~åÇ=Çá~ãçåÇ=éêçÇìÅíáçå=~åÇ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉK=oÉä~íáîÉäó=íáÖÜí=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÜÉäéÉÇ=âÉÉé=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=çå==~=Ççïåï~êÇ=íêÉåÇ=Ñêçã=çîÉê=NMMB=áå=OMMP=íç=NOB=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=ÇÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=ê~éáÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Éñé~åëáçåK=qÜÉ=åÉ~êJíÉêã=çìíäççâ=Ñçê=êÉ~ä=ÖêçïíÜ=áë=Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ=~ë=çìíéìí=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=Ñêçã=åÉï=çÑÑëÜçêÉ=çáä=ÑáÉäÇ=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ÜáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=ëìééçêí=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=éìêÅÜ~ëáåÖ=éçïÉêK===
eáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Äççëí=ÑáëÅ~ä=~åÇ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éçëáíáçåëK==p
áåÅÉ=OMMRI=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=áå=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=ëìêéäìë=ÇìÉ=íç=ÜáÖÜ=çáä=êÉîÉåìÉë=~åÇ=ïÉ~â=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Å~éáí~ä=ëéÉåÇáåÖK=aÉëéáíÉ=îÉêó=ëíêçåÖ=áãéçêí=ÖêçïíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ëìêéäìë=ëí~óÉÇ=~ÄçîÉ=OM=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMT=~åÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=íç=~äãçëí=rpa=NM=ÄáääáçåI=íêáéäáåÖ=áíë=OMMR=äÉîÉäK=^åÖçä~=Ü~ë=êÉé~áÇ=~ää=~êêÉ~êë=íç=m~êáë=ÅäìÄ=ÅêÉÇáíçêë=~åÇ=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=ëÉííäÉÇ=íÜÉ=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=áëëìÉ=ÅçåÅÉêåáåÖ=ä~íÉ=áåíÉêÉëí=é~óãÉåíëK===
píêçåÖ=êÉä~íáçåë=íç=`Üáå~=Äìí=äáãáíÉÇ=~ÅÅÉëë=íç=Ççåçê=ëìééçêíK=
få=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëI=`Üáå~=Ü~ë=~ÖêÉÉÇ=íç=éêçîáÇÉ=ãìäíá=Äáääáçå=Ççää~ê=çáäJÄ~ÅâÉÇ=äç~åë=EÉëíáã~íÉÇ=~í=rpa=NMJNR=ÄáääáçåëF=íç=ÑìåÇ=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíK=_ÉëáÇÉëI=íÜÉ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=m~êáë=ÅäìÄ=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=Ü~ë=åçêã~äáòÉÇ=áíë=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=êÉä~íáçåëÜáéë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÅêÉÇáíçêë=çéÉåáåÖ=ìé=Ñçê=åÉï=Éñéçêí=ÅêÉÇáíëK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=fjc=êÉã~áå=äáãáíÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ä~Åâ=çÑ=~å=fjcJéêçÖê~ã=äáãáí=~ÅÅÉëë=íç=Ççåçê=ëìééçêíK===
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 2008
 
2
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qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=ÜáÖÜäó=çáäJÇÉéÉåÇÉåí=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÄìëáåÉëë=Åäáã~íÉ=áë=êÉéçêíÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~âÉëí=áå=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇ=ÇìÉ=íç=ïáÇÉëéêÉ~Ç=Åçêêìéíáçå=~åÇ= ÄìêÉ~ìÅê~ÅóK=mêçÖêÉëë=çå=ëíêìÅíìê~ä=êÉÑçêã=áë=ëäçï=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉåÉëë=çÑ=íê~Çáíáçå~ä=Éñéçêí=ëÉÅíçêë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=ÅçÑÑÉÉ=~åÇ=íÉñíáäÉ=áë=Ü~ãéÉêÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ëÜ~êé=êÉ~ä=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=~ééêÉÅá~íáçåK=qÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=~äëç=Ñ~ÅÉ=ã~àçê=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=íç=ÑáÖÜí=éçîÉêíó=E~êçìåÇ=TMB=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçå=ëíáää=äáîÉë=çå=äÉëë=íÜ~å=rpANLÇ~óF=~åÇ=íç=ëíÉã=ëÉé~ê~íáëí=~íí~Åâë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=çáäJêáÅÜ=ÉåÅä~îÉ=çÑ=`~ÄáåÇ~=ëíáää=çÅÅ~ëáçå~ääó=êÉéçêíÉÇ=ÇÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=^ìÖìëí=OMMS=éÉ~ÅÉ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=Öê~åíáåÖ=`~ÄáåÇ~=ëéÉÅá~ä=ëí~íìëI=Äìí=êÉ~ÑÑáêãáåÖ=^åÖçä~Ûë=íÉêêáíçêá~ä=áåíÉÖêáíóK==
bäÉÅíáçåë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=áå=OMMU=~åÇ=OMMVK==
=^åÖçä~=Ü~ë=ÉåàçóÉÇ=~=éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=ëìëí~áåÉÇ=ëí~Äáäáíó=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Åáîáä=ï~ê=áå=OMMO=ÑçìÖÜí=Äó=íÜÉ=êìäáåÖ=mçéìä~ê=jçîÉãÉåí=Ñçê=íÜÉ=iáÄÉê~íáçå=çÑ=^åÖçä~=Ejmi^F=é~êíó=~åÇ=rkfq^=êÉÄÉäëK=qÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=áë=åçï=éêÉé~êáåÖ=Ñçê=äçåÖ=ÇÉä~óÉÇ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=Ó=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ëáåÅÉ=NVVOK=sçíÉê=êÉÖáëíê~íáçå=ï~ë=ÅçãéäÉíÉÇ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=OMMT=~åÇ=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=mêÉëáÇÉåí=açë=p~åíçë=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=äÉÖáëä~íáîÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçå=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ÜÉäÇ=çå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=RJSI=íç=ÄÉ=ÑçääçïÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçå=áå=ãáÇJOMMVK=qÜÉ=êìäáåÖ=jmi^=é~êíó=áë=ïáÇÉäó=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ïáå=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=~åÇ=açë=p~åíçëI=áå=éçïÉê=ëáåÅÉ=NVTVI=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ëÉÅìêÉ=~åçíÜÉê=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=íÉêã=~äíÜçìÖÜ=ÜÉ=Ü~ë=óÉí=ã~ÇÉ=åç=Ñçêã~ä=ëí~íÉãÉåíë=çÑ=êìååáåÖ=Ñçê=mêÉëáÇÉåíK=eçïÉîÉêI=~åçíÜÉê=éçëíéçåÉãÉåí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ÇìÉ=íç=ÇÉä~óë=áå=íÜÉ=éêÉé~ê~íáçåë=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=çÄëíêìÅíáçå=áë=ëíáää=éçëëáÄäÉK===JJ
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qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ÄÉåÉÑáíÉÇ=Ñêçã=~=ëìëí~áåÉÇ=Äççã=çÑ=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉëI=~=ëÜ~êé=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=çÑ=çáä=~åÇ=Çá~ãçåÇ=éêçÇìÅíáçåI=~åÇ=~=éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=ëìëí~áåÉÇ=ëí~Äáäáíó=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=Åáîáä=ï~êK=qÜáë=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=ä~êÖÉ=ëìêéäìëÉë=áå=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=~åÇ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=ÄìáäÇJìé=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉëK=píêçåÖ=êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=`Üáå~=~åÇ=áãéêçîÉÇ=êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=m~êáë=ÅäìÄ=ÅêÉÇáíçêë=~äëç=éêçîáÇÉ=áãéçêí~åí=ëçìêÅÉë=çÑ=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉÅçîÉêó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=íÜçêå=Äó=íÜêÉÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=Åáîáä=ï~êK=kÉ~êJíÉêã=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=çìíäççâ=áë=éçëáíáîÉ=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=åÉï=çÑÑëÜçêÉ=éêçàÉÅíë=ÅçãáåÖ=çåäáåÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=~=ïÉ~â=ÄìëáåÉëë=Åäáã~íÉI=ïáÇÉëéêÉ~Ç=éçîÉêíó=~åÇ=ëÉé~ê~íáëí=íÉåÇÉåÅáÉë=áå=íÜÉ=`~ÄáåÇ~JêÉÖáçå=éçëÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=~åÇ=~êÉ=áëëìÉë=íÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=ÅçãÉ=íç=~=ÜÉ~Ç=ÇìêáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ä~íÉê=íÜáë=óÉ~êK=
 
hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë OMMT
mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF NTdamLÅ~éáí~=EAF PUTMdam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF OOBfåÑä~íáçå=NOB`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam ONBoÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF T_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam UBdçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam NUB
Graph:
The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worsethan average in all respects including to itstraditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weakerliquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk.
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW=
cáíÅÜW===__JLéçëjççÇóDëW=_~P=pCmW==__JLéçë=
 
dê~éÜW
=qÜÉ=éÉåí~Öçå=ëÜçïë=^åÖçä~Dë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ==ëíêçåÖäó=íáäíÉÇ=áå=Ñ~îçìê=çÑ=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=Ñ~Åíçêë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=~åÇ=äáèìáÇáíó=ïÜáäÉ=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áë=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=ïÉ~âÉê=íÜ~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=~ää=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçìåíêáÉëK=
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW=
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mÉÉêëW
káÖÉêá~=hÉåó~=bíÜáçéá~=
-1135791113
ResilienceLiquidityInformationAbsence of eventriskMacro balance
Average EMAngola
How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.
 
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 2008
 
3
Key data:20022003200420052006200720082009
GDP (bill. US$)1114203347667785GDP/capita (US$)0.80.91.32.02.93.94.44.7GDP, real (change)14.4%3.4%16.9%20.6%14.3%22.4%12.9%
8.0%
Investments/GDP58%118%115%137%276%294%313%338%Budget deficit/GDP-9.0%-6.4%-1.6%7.4%14.8%7.9%5.3%
4.7%
Govt debt/GDP77%63%60%41%24%18%16%
17%
CPI inflation (%)169.7%108.0%86.4%43.5%24.8%11.7%12.0%
10.0%
Money demand (%)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Stock prices (%change)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest rates97.396.182.367.719.517.7Exch. Rate ($)43.574.683.587.280.476.780.485Trade/GDP (%)106%107%98%99%86%91%115%102%Oil price (Brent)$252938546573112106
Billions US $
Export of goods8.39.513.524.131.944.167.263.4Imports of goods3.85.55.88.48.815.921.923.2Other:0.0-0.20.10.30.50.50.60.6Current account-0.2-0.70.75.110.713.828.922.3% of GDP-1%-5%3%16%23%21%37%26%Net FDI1.63.51.4-1.5-1.0-1.0-3.0-1.2Loan repayments1.21.31.31.41.71.71.81.9Net other capital flows-2.5-3.3-1.50.4-10.4-13.4-26.4-21.4Balance of payments0.30.71.85.41.11.11.31.6Reserves0.40.61.43.28.69.710.812.1Total debt8.48.78.79.311.812.012.613.4o/w short term debt0.40.40.40.50.60.60.60.7
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates 
Rating history
Fitch Not ratedMoody's Not ratedS&P Not rated
Type of government:
Republic, multiparty presidential regime.Next electionsParliamentary expected in Sept. 2008 and Presidential in mid-2009.
Other:
Latest PC deal1989Recent IMF programsNone.2
Ease of Doing Business Rank (1-178)
13572102108167178050100150200SingaporeSouth AfricaKenyaEthiopiaNigeriaAngolaCongo, Dem. Rep.
 
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