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Estonia
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS December 16, 2008
 
important
 
your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel 
 
: +46 8 
 
763 83 92. E-mail 
 
: rolf.danielsen@seb.se
Estonia has now officially entered an economic recession, with possibly no significant upturn in sight before 2011 at the best. Hopes are now pinned on the government’s ability to steer the economy through turbulent times.
Country Risk Analysis
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=e~îáåÖ=éçëíÉÇ=~=ëã~ää=MIOB=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=OMMUI=íÜÉ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=íêÉåÇ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=áå=nO=~åÇ=nP=ïáíÜ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó=NB=~åÇ=íÜÉå=QB=Åçåíê~Åíáçå=áå=~ååì~ä=dam=JJ=óÉ~êJçåJóÉ~ê=EóçóF=Éëíáã~íÉK===qÜÉëÉ=åìãÄÉêë=é~áåí=~=éáÅíìêÉ=çÑ=~å=~Çî~åÅáåÖ=êÉÅÉëëáçå=íÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=éêçîÉ=ÇÉÉéÉê=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=éêçíê~ÅíÉÇ=íÜ~å=~=åçêã~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÇçïåíìêåK=mêáî~íÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=~åÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇ=~êÉ=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ê~éáÇäóK==oÉí~áä=ë~äÉë=ïÉêÉ=Ççïå=TB=óçó=áå=lÅíçÄÉêI=ã~êâáåÖ=~å=ÉîÉå=ÇÉÉéÉê=Çêçé=áå=êÉ~ä=íÉêãë=~Ö~áåëí=~å=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=~í=NMBK=mêáî~íÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=~êÉ=ÄÉáåÖ=Üáí=Äó=ê~éáÇäó=ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=ÅçåëíêìÅíáçå=~ë=íÜÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=åÉï=ÜçìëáåÖ=Ü~ë=Ñ~ääÉå=ëÜ~êéäó=ïáíÜ=éêáÅÉë=Ççïå=ëçãÉ=OMJPMB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=~=Ü~äÑK=^ãçåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÅçãéçåÉåíë=çåäó=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=éêçîáÇÉÇ=ëçãÉ=ëíáãìäìë=ïáíÜ=~Åíáîáíó=ìé=QJRB=ëç=Ñ~ê=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=áå=êÉ~ä=íÉêãëK===
fãéçêí=ÖêçïíÜ=Ñ~ääë=ê~éáÇäóX=Éñéçêíë=ÖêçïíÜ=áë=ëíáää=éçëáíáîÉ=Äìí=íê~áäáåÖ
K=cçääçïáåÖ=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ìåìëì~ä=ê~éáÇ=Éñé~åëáçåI=íÜÉ=áãéçêí=Äáää=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=åáåÉ=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=OMMU=ÇêçééÉÇ=OBI=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=áãéçêíÉÇ=Å~êë=~åÇ=~ééäá~åÅÉë=áå=é~êíáÅìä~êK==bñéçêí=ÖêçïíÜI=Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=Ü~ë=êÉã~áåÉÇ=éçëáíáîÉ=Éñé~åÇáåÖ=Äó=ëçãÉ=TIRB=áå=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇI=~äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜ~í=áë=çåäó=Ü~äÑ=íÜÉ=ê~íÉ=~ÅÜáÉîÉÇ=áå=OMMTK==jçêÉçîÉêI=áí=ï~ë=éêçÄ~Ääó=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=~=êÉîáî~ä=çÑ=íÜÉ=íê~åëáí=íê~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ=oìëëá~I=ïÜáÅÜ=ã~ó=åçï=éêçîÉ=íÉãéçê~êó=~ë=oìëëá~=áíëÉäÑ=áë=ëÉí=Ñçê=~=ëäìãéK==qÜÉ=ÉåÇ=êÉëìäí=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=~=Åçåíê~Åíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=VB=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMUI=Ççïå=Ñêçã=NUB=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~êK=qÜÉ=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=áåíç=OMMVI=ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=ïÉ=ëÉÉ=~=êáëâ=íÜ~í=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉë=ã~ó=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íÉ=ãçêÉ=ëÜ~êéäóI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=Éñéçêíë=çÑ=ëÉêîáÅÉëK=cçê=áåëí~åÅÉI=bëíçåá~Ûë=îáí~ä=íçìêáëã=ëÉÅíçê=ã~ó=ÄÉ=
GDP growth
-4%0%4%8%12%2003 2005 2007 2009
History Forecast
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Dec. 16, 2008
 
2
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K=få=lÅíçÄÉêI=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=ÇÉÅäáåÉÇ=íç=VIUB=óçó=~ÑíÉê=Ü~îáåÖ=éÉ~âÉÇ=~í=~êçìåÇ=NOB=áå=gìåÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=áå=~=Åçìåíêó=~ë=çéÉå=~ë=bëíçåá~=íÜÉ=`mf=áë=ÜÉ~îáäó=áåÑäìÉåÅÉÇ=Äó=êÉä~íáîÉäó=ëí~ÄäÉ=áãéçêí=éêáÅÉëK=cçê=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉåÉëëI=ï~ÖÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=áë=íÜÉ=ãçêÉ=áãéçêí~åíK=qÜ~í=áë=~äëç=êÉÇìÅáåÖ=Äìí=ä~íÉëí=ëí~íáëíáÅë=ëíáää=ëÜçï=áí=~í=NRB=óçóI=Ççïå=Ñêçã=ëçãÉ=OMJORB=áå=OMMT=JJ=äáâÉäó=ï~óë=~ÄçîÉ=~åó=êÉ~ëçå~ÄäÉ=ãÉ~ëìêÉ=çÑ=éêçÇìÅíáîáíó=ÖêçïíÜK==`çåëÉèìÉåíäóI=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=ÅçåíáåìÉë=íç=É~í=áåíç=êÉã~áåáåÖ=Åçëí=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉåÉëëK=eçéÉë=~êÉ=íÜ~í=ïáíÜáå=~=Ñê~ãÉïçêâ=çÑ=~=éçëëáÄäó=ãçêÉ=ÑäÉñáÄäÉ=íÜ~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=ä~Äçìê=ã~êâÉí=JJìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=áë=~äêÉ~Çó=~í=QB=~åÇ=êáëáåÖI==ÑìêíÜÉê=ï~ÖÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=ïáää=ëççå=ÄÉ=~êêÉëíÉÇ=~åÇ=áå=ã~åó=Å~ëÉë=êçääÉÇ=Ä~ÅâI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ïÜÉêÉ=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=áå=OMMT=ïÉêÉ=ÖáîÉå=ìé=íç=PMB=ê~áëÉëK==
Wage growth
Source: Reuters EcoWin 
2004 2006 2008
   A  n  n  u  a   l   %  -  c   h  a  n  g  e
0510152025
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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Dec. 16, 2008
 
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