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China, P.R.: Hong Kong
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS May 22, 2008
 
important
 
your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel 
 
: +46 8 
 
763 83 92. E-mail 
 
:rolf.danielsen@seb.se Hong Kong continues to excell on all country risk indicators and Beijing’s signal of last December toallow general suffrage for Hong Kong’s elections in 2017 is positive for political event risk as well.
Country Risk Analysis
píêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=ÅçåíáåìÉë=çå=íÜÉ=Ä~Åâ=çÑ=éêáî~íÉ=ÇÉã~åÇK
==få=OMMTI=ÖêçïíÜ=ëäçïÉÇ=íç=SIPBI=Äìí=ï~ë=ëíáää=~=ÖççÇ=êÉëìäí=çåäó=ëäáÖÜíäó=Ççïå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=TB=Éñé~åëáçå=~ÅÜáÉîÉÇ=áå=OMMSK==qÜ~í=ã~êâÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÑçìêíÜ=óÉ~ê=çÑ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=~êçìåÇ=TBK==^ë=áå=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~êëI=Äìçó~åí=éêáî~íÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ï~ë=íÜÉ=ã~áå=ÇêáîÉê=~ë=éêáî~íÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=êçëÉ=UB=ïÜáäÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=SB=ÖêçïíÜ=~åÇ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Åçåëìãéíáçå=êçëÉ=çåäó=ëäáÖÜíäó=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=OB=áå=êÉ~ä=íÉêãëK==mÉçéäÉëÛ=ëÉåíáãÉåí=êÉã~áåÉÇ=ëíêçåÖI= ÄççëíÉÇ=Äó=ÖççÇ= àçÄ=çééçêíìåáíáÉëI=ï~ÖÉ=ÜáâÉë=~åÇ=~= ÄççãáåÖ=ëíçÅâ=ã~êâÉí=íÜêçìÖÜ=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êK===
Growth and budget balance
-2%2%6%10%
   2   0   0   2   2   0   0   3   2   0   0  4   2   0   0   5   2   0   0   6   2   0   0   7   2   0   0   8   2   0   0   9
GDP (change)Budget balance/GDP
=
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=aÉëéáíÉ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=íç=~=ëìêéäìë=çÑ=AOR=ÄáääKI=Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=NPIPB=çÑ=damI=~Äçìí=çåÉ=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=éçáåí=ÜáÖÜÉê=íÜ~å=áå=OMMSK==qÜ~í=ÉñÅÉéíáçå~ä=êÉëìäí=çïÉÇ=áíë=ëìÅÅÉëë=ã~áåäó=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçåíáåìáåÖ=ëìêÖÉ=çÑ=ëÉêîáÅÉë=Éñéçêíë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áå=íçìêáëã=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅÉK==OR=ãáääáçå=åçåJêÉëáÇÉåíë=îáëáíÉÇ=eçåÖ=hçåÖ=áå=OMMTI=çÑ=ïÜáÅÜ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=Ü~äÑ=Å~ãÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇI=ïÜáäÉ=Ä~åâë=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=Éñé~åÇ=íÜÉáê=ÄìëáåÉëë=~Äêç~Ç=~ë=ëÉÉå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=OUB=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíëK==^ë=~=êÉëìäí=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=êçëÉ=íç=ANRP=ÄáääKI=ëçãÉ=AOM=Äáää=ìé=çå=OMMSI=~ë=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=áå=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=ï~ë=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=áåíÉêîÉåÉ=íç=éêÉîÉåí=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÄêÉ~âáåÖ=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ÅÉáäáåÖ=JJ=áKÉK=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖ=ëáÇÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=î~êá~íáçå=Ä~åÇ=~êçìåÇ=áíë=ÅÉåíê~ä=é~êáíó=íç=íÜÉ=rp=Ççää~êK==qÜÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=~êÉ=åçï=~ë=ä~êÖÉ=~ë=íÜÉ=î~äìÉ=çÑ=eçåÖ=hçåÖÛë=~ååì~ä=ãÉêÅÜ~åÇáëÉ=áãéçêíë=ÇÉëíáåÉÇ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=íÉêêáíçêó=áíëÉäÑI=áKÉK=~ÑíÉê=ÉñÅäìÇáåÖ=íê~åëáí=íê~ÇÉ=íç=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇK==qÜÉó=~êÉ=~äëç=~Äçìí=íÜêÉÉ=íáãÉë=ä~êÖÉê=íÜ~å=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=ëíçÅâ=çÑ=
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 22, 2008
2
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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 22, 2008
3
åÉîÉê=ÉñÅÉÉÇÉÇ=UB=çÑ=íÜÉ=ïçêâÑçêÅÉK==qçÇ~ó=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=áë=Ççïå=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=QBK=pçãÉ=óÉ~êë=~Öç=ÇçìÄíë=äáåÖÉêÉÇ=~ë=íç=ïÜÉíÜÉê=eçåÖ=hçåÖ=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=ãÉÉí=íÜÉ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=Ñêçã=åÉï=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅÉåíêÉë=éä~ååÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áå=pÜ~åÖÜ~áK==qçÇ~ó=áí=ëÉÉãë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇ=áë=Ñ~ê=ÄÉÜáåÇ=eçåÖ=hçåÖ=áå=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖáåÖ=áíë=éçëáíáçå=áå=íÜ~í=~êÉ~K===
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W====fí=ã~ó=ëÉÉã=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÅäçëÉ=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=íç=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇ=êÉéêÉëÉåíë=~=Çáëéêçéçêíáçå~ä=êáëâ=íç=íÜÉ=íÉêêáíçêóK==^ë=åçíÉÇ=~ÄçîÉI=çîÉê=êÉÅÉåí=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=íÜÉ=êáëÉ=çÑ=`Üáå~=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÄçíÜ=~=Ä~åÉ=~åÇ=~=Äççå=íç=eçåÖ=hçåÖK==qçÇ~ó=íÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=éêÉî~áäëI=Äìí=~=éçëëáÄäÉ=ëÜ~êé=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇ=ïçìäÇ=ÅÉêí~áåäó=Ü~îÉ=~=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=íÜÉ=íÉêêáíçêóK==pÜçìäÇ=ëìÅÜ=~=ëäçïÇçïå=ÄÉÅçãÉ=äçåÖJäáîÉÇI=íÜÉ=íÉêêáíçêó=ïçìäÇ=Ñ~ÅÉ=íÜÉ=åÉÉÇ=íç=êÉëíêìÅíìêÉ=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áåK==kçÄçÇó=Å~å=ë~ó=Éñ~Åíäó=Üçï=íÜ~í=ïçìäÇ=ìåÑçäÇI=Äìí=ÅçãÑçêí=Å~å=ÄÉ=í~âÉå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=eçåÖ=hçåÖ=Å~êêáÉë=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçëí=êÉã~êâ~ÄäÉ=íê~Åâ=êÉÅçêÇë=áå=ãçÇÉêå=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Üáëíçêó=çÑ=ê~éáÇ=êÉëíêìÅíìêáåÖëK==^=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=é~éÉê=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=fjc=éçáåíë=çìí=eçåÖ=hçåÖÛë=éêÉJÉãáåÉåÅÉ=Ñçê=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=~ë=~=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅÉåíêÉ=áå=ÄçíÜ=~=êÉÖáçå~ä=~åÇ=~=ÖäçÄ~ä=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉK
N
==pìÅÜ=~Çî~åí~ÖÉë=áåÅäìÇÉ=~=ëíêçåÖ=íê~Çáíáçå=Ñçê=êìäÉ=çÑ=ä~ïI=äçï=äÉîÉä=çÑ=ÅçêêìéíáçåI=áåÇÉéÉåÇÉåí=ÅçìêíëI=ÖÉçÖê~éÜáÅ~ä=äçÅ~íáçåI=ãçÇÉêå=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=~åÇ=ÅçããìåáÅ~íáçåëI=~=îáÄê~åí=Åìäíìê~ä=Ä~ëáë=~åÇ=~=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ÜáÖÜ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=ÉÇìÅ~íáçå=~åÇ=âåçïäÉÇÖÉ=çÑ=båÖäáëÜK=
Export shares
China29%US20%EU19%Japan6%Others26%
China's share has been corrected for transit trade,estimated at about 50% of the total.
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Hong Kong SAR as a Financial Center for ASIA: Trends and Implications. IMF WP/08/57
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