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Romania
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS February 18, 2009
 
important
your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
 
Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel 
 
: +46 8 
 
763 83 92. E-mail 
 
: rolf.danielsen@seb.se
Years of overheating driven by rapid credit growth and procyclical fiscal policies reached the tipping point last fall and Romania risks a near term hard landing.
Country Risk Analysis
 
=
^ÑíÉê=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ëíÉää~ê=éÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ëäçïë=~ÄêìéíäóK==
få=OMMUI=ÖêçïíÜ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=UIQB=~ë=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ=êÉÅçîÉêÉÇ=Ñêçã=ÇêçìÖÜí=íÜÉ=éêÉÅÉÇáåÖ=óÉ~êI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=Äççã=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=áåíç=íÜÉ=åÉï=óÉ~ê=ÄìçóÉÇ=Äó=ëíêçåÖ=Éñéçêíë=~åÇ=ÄìääáëÜ=ëÉåíáãÉåí=~ãçåÖ=áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=ÅçåëìãÉêëK=oÉ~ä=Éëí~íÉ=ÅçåëíêìÅíáçå=ëíÉ~ãÉÇ=Ñçêï~êÇ=éçïÉêÉÇ=Äó=ÖÉåÉêçìë=ÅêÉÇáíë=Ñêçã=Ä~åâë=é~êíáÅìä~êäó=áå=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íç=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇëK==^ë=~=êÉëìäí=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ïÉåí=áåíç=çîÉê=ÖÉ~êI=ÅêÉ~íáåÖ=éêÉëëìêÉë=áå=éêçÇìÅí=~åÇ=ä~Äçê=ã~êâÉíëK==qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=Ü~Ç=~äêÉ~Çó=íáÖÜíÉåÉÇ=ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó=ÇìÉ=íç=ÉãáÖê~íáçå=çÑ=àçÄJëÉÉâÉêë=íç=fí~äó=~åÇ=pé~áåK=`çãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=äçåÖJëí~åÇáåÖ=ëíêìÅíìê~ä=áåÑäÉñáÄáäáíáÉë=ä~Äçê=ëÜçêí~ÖÉ= ÄÉÅ~ãÉ=~ÅìíÉ=~åÇ=ëÉåí=ï~ÖÉ=ÇÉã~åÇë=ëç~êáåÖK===oáëáåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=éêáÅÉ=éêÉëëìêÉë=ÑçääçïÉÇ=~åÇ=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ÜáÖÜ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ÑìÉä=~åÇ=ÑççÇ=éêáÅÉë=íç=ÇêáîÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=áåíç=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=íÉêêáíçêó=Ñçê=ëÉîÉê~ä=ãçåíÜëK==Ó=qÜáë=Å~ãÉ=íç=~=ëìÇÇÉå=Ü~äí=áå=íÜÉ=Ñ~ää=~ë=êáëâ=~ééÉíáíÉ=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=éäìããÉíÉÇ=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=äáèìáÇáíó=~ää=Äìí=ÇêáÉÇ=ìéK=f=å=oçã~åá~I=Ä~åâë=~äãçëí=ÑêçòÉ=åÉï=ÅêÉÇáíë=áå=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=ê~éáÇäó=ÅççäáåÖ=~Åíáîáíó=áå=íÜÉ=ÜçìëáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=~åÇ=ëÜ~êéäó=êÉÇìÅáåÖ=áãéçêí=ÖêçïíÜK==qÜ~í=éêÉîÉåíÉÇ=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÖêçïáåÖ=çìí=çÑ=ÅçåíêçäI=äÉ~îáåÖ=áí=~í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=äÉîÉä=êÉä~íáîÉ=íç=dam=~ë=áå=OMMTI=ïÜáÅÜI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ëíáää=ãÉ~åí=~=ÜÉÑíó=NQBLdamK==tÜáäÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáíë=áå=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~êë=ìëÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=~äãçëí=Ñìääó=ÅçîÉêÉÇ=Äó=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=EcafFI=íÜ~í=ëÜ~êÉ=ï~ë=Ççïå=íç=çåäó=Ü~äÑ=áå=OMMUK==
(long and medium term)
Bank loans to households
Foreign exchange, long term, households [ + Foreign exchange, medium term, households]Lei, long term, households [ + Foreign exchange, medium term, households]
Source: Reuters EcoWin 
2005200620072008
   R   O   N   (   b   i   l   l   i  o  n  s   )
0102030405060
Leueuro etc
=
qÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÄÉÅçãÉë=~=ÅçåÅÉêå
K==cçê=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=oçã~åá~=éêáÇÉÇ=áíëÉäÑ=çÑ=éêìÇÉåí=ã~Åêç=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=íÜ~í=Ü~Ç=É~êåÉÇ=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=~å=áåîÉëíãÉåí=Öê~ÇÉ=ê~íáåÖ=ïáíÜ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉëK=qÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ü~Ç=ÄÉÉå=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=ïÉää=ïáíÜáå=j~~ëíêáÅÜí=ÅêáíÉêá~I=~äíÜçìÖÜ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~Ç=Ñ~Åáäáí~íÉÇ=íÜ~í=êÉëìäíK==_ìí=
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis June 21, 2008
 
2
 
OMMU=ÄÉáåÖ=~å=ÉäÉÅíáçå=óÉ~êI=éçäáíáÅá~åë=ïÉåí=çìí=çÑ=íÜÉáê=ï~ó=áå=éêçãáëáåÖ=ÖÉåÉêçìë=ï~ÖÉ=ÜáâÉë=Ñçê=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=~åÇ=~=ÖÉåÉêçìë=Äççëí=íç=éÉåëáçåëK==qÜáë=åçí=çåäó=ÑìÉääÉÇ=ï~ÖÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=~í=ä~êÖÉI=Äìí=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=çíÜÉê=çîÉêëéÉåÇáåÖ=~åÇ=í~ñ=êÉÇìÅíáçåë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=çÑ=s^q=çå=ÑççÇ=áíÉãë=íç=ëÉåÇ=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çåíç=~=êáëáåÖ=íê~àÉÅíçêóK==^í=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ï~ë=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ=ê~éáÇäó=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=Ñêçåíäç~ÇáåÖ=çÑ=éÉåëáçå=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=Äó=íÜÉ=çìíÖçáåÖ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK====få=íÜÉ=ÉîÉåíI=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÉåÇÉÇ=áå=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=RB=çÑ=damI=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=íïáÅÉ=~ë=ãìÅÜ=~ë=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=íïáÅÉ=~ë=ãìÅÜ=~ë=éä~ååÉÇ=~í=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=óÉ~êK====
táää=íÜÉ=åÉï=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=íìêå=íÜÉ=íáÇÉ\=
=qç=ëíÉã=íÜÉ=çåÖçáåÖ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáçå=íç=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçëáíáçåI=íÜÉ=çìíÖçáåÖ=~Çãáåáëíê~íáçå=Ü~Ç=éìí=íÜÉ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=é~êäá~ãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçå=íç=ÜáâÉ=íÉ~ÅÜÉêëÛ=ë~ä~êáÉë=Äó=RMB=~ë=çÑ=g~åì~êó=OMMV=çå=ÜçäÇ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=áí=äÉÑí=çÑÑáÅÉK==eçïÉîÉêI=ÇÉëéáíÉ=íÜ~í=ÉåÅçìê~ÖáåÖ=ëáÖå=çÑ=êÉåÉïÉÇ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éêìÇÉåÅÉI=ã~åó=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÇçìÄí=íÜÉ=áåÅçãáåÖ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=åÉáíÜÉê=íÜÉ=~Äáäáíó=åçê=íÜÉ=éÉêëÉîÉê~åÅÉ=íç=Å~êêó=íÜêçìÖÜ=~åó=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=ÑáëÅ~ä=êÉëíê~áåí=áå=OMMVI=~åÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=áå=íÜÉ=ÄÉëí=çÑ=Å~ëÉë=ïáää=ÉåÇ=áå=~=åÉï=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=êÉëìäí=çÑ=OMMUK==oÉÅÉåí=Ç~í~=áåÇáÅ~íÉ=éäìåÖáåÖ=í~ñ=êÉîÉåìÉë=ïÜáäÉ=ãçëí=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=ÅçããáíãÉåíë=ÅçåíáåìÉK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=íÜÉ=åÉï=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëáíì~íáçå=áë=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇ=~åÇ=Ü~ë=åçí=Ä~ëáÅ~ääó=ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~äÉã~íÉ=Å~ìëÉÇ=Äó=~=Ñê~ÖãÉåíÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ä~åÇëÅ~éÉK==qÜÉ=kçîÉãÄÉê=OMMU=ÉäÉÅíáçå=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=îáêíì~ä=Çê~ï=ÄÉíïÉÉå=íÜÉ=~ääá~åÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëçÅá~ä=ÇÉãçÅê~íë=EpmaF=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÅçåëÉêî~íáîÉë=E`mF=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÇÉãçÅê~íáÅ=äáÄÉê~äë=EaimF=ÄçíÜ=çÑ=ïÜáÅÜ=ïçå=PPB=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçíÉëK=qÜÉ=íïç=ïáååÉêë=ÑçêãÉÇ=~=Åç~äáíáçå=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáíÜ=~=ÅçãÑçêí~ÄäÉ=ã~àçêáíó=áå=é~êäá~ãÉåíK=tÜáäÉ=íÜ~í=ã~ó=ëçìåÇ=éêçãáëáåÖI=íÜÉ=ìåÇÉêäóáåÖ=íÉåëáçåë=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉëÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=ÄÉÇJã~íÉë=~êÉ=é~äé~ÄäÉI=~ë=ëÉÉå=áå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=çÑ=ëÉêáçìë=Åçêêìéíáçå=ÅÜ~êÖÉëK==mêÉëëìêÉë=~êÉ=ãçìåíáåÖ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçëíéçåÉÇ=ï~ÖÉ=ÜáâÉë=Ñçê=íÉ~ÅÜÉêëI=ïÜáÅÜ=áå=íìêå=ïáää=íêáÖÖÉê=ÇÉã~åÇë=Ñçê=ëáãáä~ê=ê~áëÉë=Ñçê=çíÜÉê=Öêçìéë=çÑ=éìÄäáÅ=ÉãéäçóÉÉëK===
táää=ãçåÉí~êó=ÅçãÉ=íç=íÜÉ=êÉëÅìÉ\=
få=OMMRI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=~ÇçéíÉÇ=~å=áåÑä~íáçå=í~êÖÉíáåÖ=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅóK==aÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=éÉ~âáåÖ=çÑ=áåÑä~íáçå=áå=OMMU=~í=UIQB=~ë=~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=íÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ä=àìÇÖãÉåí=áë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Ü~ë=éìêëìÉÇ=íÜáë=éçäáÅó=ïáíÜ=ëçãÉ=ëìÅÅÉëë=ÖáîÉå=íÜÉ=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=ÉåîáêçåãÉåí=çÑ=~=éêçJÅóÅäáÅ~ä=ÑáëÅ~ä=ëí~åÅÉK==tÜÉå=íÜÉ=~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=íáÇÉ=íìêåÉÇ=áå=ãáÇJOMMUI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=ÜáâÉ=ê~íÉë=íç=ëçÑíÉå=íÜÉ=Ñ~ää=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK==eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=íÜ~í=éêçîÉÇ=áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=áå=nQI=áí=~äëç=áåíÉêîÉåÉÇ=Ñçê=ëçãÉ=AQ=ÄáääK=áå=íÜÉ=ÑçêÉñ=ã~êâÉíI=ÇÉéäÉíáåÖ=êÉëÉêîÉë=Äó=~=íÉåíÜ=íç=APQ= ÄáääKK==qÜÉó=~êÉ=ëíáää=èìáíÉ=~ÇÉèì~íÉ=áå=íÉêãë=çÑ=R=ãçåíÜë=áãéçêí=ÅçîÉê~ÖÉI=Äìí=Çï~êÑÉÇ=Äó=ANT=ÄáääK=~ãçêíáò~íáçå=~åÇ=ëçãÉ=APM=ÄáääK=ëÜçêíJíÉêã=äç~åë=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÇìÉ=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=NO=ãçåíÜëK==
 Romania has made significant strides in catching up with EU income levels, but fast real  convergence has gone hand in hand with growing macroeconomic imbalances. Once EU  accession prospects looked  secure, foreign capital flooded into Romania to take advantage of perceived improvements ininvestments risk and returns, triggering an absorption boom.
(IMF 2008)
=
oáëáåÖ=êáëâ=çÑ=ëíê~áåÉÇ=äáèìáÇáíó
K==qÜ~í=ïçìäÇ=åçí=ÄÉ=çÑ=ãìÅÜ=ÅçåÅÉêå=ìåÇÉê=åçêã~ä=ÅáêÅìãëí~åÅÉëI=Äìí=íÜÉ=êáëâ=éçáåíÉÇ=çìí=Äó=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=åìãÄÉêë=çÑ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=áë=çÑ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÅêÉÇáí=ÅêìåÅÜ=~åÇ=äáèìáÇáíó=ëèìÉÉòÉK==qÜ~í=êáëâ=áë=~ÅÅÉåíì~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=Ç~åÖÉê=íÜ~í=ëçãÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=é~êÉåí=Ä~åâë=ëóëíÉã=ÅçìäÇ=ïáíÜÇê~ïI=~ÑíÉê=Ü~îáåÖ=
 
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis June 21, 2008
 
3
 
Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=~=íÜáêÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ÅêÉÇáí=ÄççãK==kçíáåÖ=íÜ~í=ÑçêÉáÖå=Ä~åâë=Åçåíêçä=VMB=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãI=íÜÉ=êÉëìäí=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=ëáíì~íáçå=ÄÉÑçêÉ=äçåÖ=ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=oçã~åá~=áë=ãçêÉ=ëçäîÉåí=íÜ~å=ã~åó=éÉÉêëK=bñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=ëí~åÇë=~í=~Äçìí=RMB=çÑ=damI=äÉëë=íÜ~å=Ü~äÑ=íÜÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=íÜÉ=_~äíáÅ=ÅçìåíêáÉëK==lìí=çÑ=íÜ~í=ÇÉÄí=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Åçìåíë=Ñçê=çåäó=~=ãáåçê=é~êíI=äáâÉ=áå=íÜÉ=_~äíáÅëK==tÜáäÉ=íÜáë=ëÜçìäÇ=ãáíáÖ~íÉ=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=~å=çìíêáÖÜí=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=áå=íÜÉ=åÉ~ê=íÉêãI==Åçãé~åáÉë=~åÇ=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇëI=~êÉ=ëççå=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉÅçãÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ääó=îìäåÉê~ÄäÉK=qÜ~í=áë=åçí=çåäó=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=ïÉ~â=áåÅçãÉ=éêçëéÉÅíë=~ë=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íÉë=ëÜ~êéäó=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=NB=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMV=~åÇ=éÉêÜ~éë=OMNMI=Äìí=~äëç= ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëíÉÉé=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉI=ÜìêíáåÖ=Åçãé~åáÉë=~åÇ=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇë=ïáíÜ=ÇÉÄí=áå=Éìêçë=~åÇ=pïáëë=cê~åÅI=êÉéêÉëÉåíáåÖ=RSB=çÑ=~ää=Ä~åâ=äç~åë=íç=íÜÉ=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçêK====JJGJJ==
fåîÉëíçê=îáÉï=çå=oçã~åá~=Ü~ë=ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=ëÜ~êéäó=íç=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ãççÇ=áå=êÉÅÉåí=íáãÉë= Ñêçã=ÉÄìääáÉåí=çéíáãáëã=çåäó=~=óÉ~ê=~ÖçK==qÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=Äó=ëÉîÉê~ä=åçíÅÜÉë=Ñêçã=ÇÉÅÉåí=áåîÉëíãÉåí=Öê~ÇÉë=áåíç=ëéÉÅìä~íáîÉ=Öê~ÇÉëK==táíÜ=íÜÉ=çåÖçáåÖ=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=äáèìáÇáíó=~åÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ëáíì~íáçå=oçã~åá~=ÅçìäÇ=ëççå=ÄÉ=Üáí=Äó=ëÉîÉêÉ=Å~éáí~ä=ÑäáÖÜí=~åÇ=áå~Äáäáíó=íç=êçää=çîÉê=ÑçêÉáÖå=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=~í=êÉ~ëçå~ÄäÉ=ê~íÉëK==tÜáäÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=ëìÑÑáÅÉ=íç=ÅçîÉê=êÉä~íáîÉäó=ãçÇÉëí= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=ëÉêîáÅÉ=~åÇ=~=ê~éáÇäó=ëÜêáåâáåÖ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=OMMVI=íÜÉ=çåìë=ïáää=ÄÉ=çå=íÜÉ=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=íç=ãÉÉí=áíë=çÄäáÖ~íáçåë=áå=~å=ÉåîáêçåãÉåí=çÑ=ëÜ~êéäó=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=~åÇ=~=éêçÄ~Ääó=ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK=tÉ=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=íÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ä=Åçìåíêó=êáëâ=ãçêÉ=ëíÉÉéäó=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=êáëâK==
=
Key ratios 2009
mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF ON
GDP/capita ($)7201GDP (change)0,6%Inflation 4,1%Curr.acc. balance/GDP-12%Reserves/imports (months)4,4Budget balance/GDP(*)-5,2%Government debt/GDP(*)14%
Graph:
The graph shows Romania as relatively strong onresilience -- i.e. good long term factors, compared withmany peers, while weakness is on the macro balance.Event risk is high but milder than in Ukraine.
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW=
cáíÅÜW=__HLkbdpCmW=__HLkbd
mÉÉêëW
râê~áåÉi~íîá~oìëëá~=
024681012
ResilienceLiquidityInformationAbsence ofevent riskMacro balance
RomaniaUkraine
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