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Ukraine
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS October 27, 2008
 
important
 
your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel 
:
+46 8 
 
763 96 05. E-mail 
 
: jenny.nordgren@seb.se
Political chaos, rapidly growing macroeconomic imbalances and the recent sharp slowdown in theeconomy risk triggering a currency crises and further financial instability. However, hopes are that the planned IMF loan of USD 16.5 billion will restore confidence and economic and financial stability.
Country Risk Analysis
=
aÉÉéÉåáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÅêáëáëK=
lå=lÅíçÄÉê=UI=mêÉëáÇÉåí=vìëÅÜÉåâç=ÇáëëçäîÉÇ=íÜÉ=m~êäá~ãÉåí=~åÇ=Å~ääÉÇ=Ñçê=åÉï=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=éä~ååÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=ÜÉäÇ=çå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=NQ=J=íÜÉ=íÜáêÇ=é~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÉäÉÅíáçå=áå=~ë=ã~åó=óÉ~êëK=qÜÉ=ãçîÉ=ÑçääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ=Åçää~éëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÑçêãÉê=êìäáåÖ=Åç~äáíáçå=çå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=PI=OMMU=êÉëìäíáåÖ=Ñêçã=~=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=ëéäáí= ÄÉíïÉÉå=râê~áåÉÛë=íïç=íçé=äÉ~ÇÉêëI=mêÉëáÇÉåí=vìëÜÅÜÉåâç=~åÇ=mêáãÉ=jáåáëíÉê=vìäá~=qóãçëÜÉåâçI=ÑçêãÉê=lê~åÖÉ=oÉîçäìíáçå=~ääáÉë=ïÜç=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÅçãÉ=ÄáííÉê=êáî~äë=ïáíÜ=ÇáÑÑÉêáåÖ=îáëáçåë=çÑ=Üçï=râê~áåÉ=ëÜçìäÇ=Ü~åÇäÉ=êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=oìëëá~=~åÇ=tÉëíK=qóãçëÜÉåâç=Ó=íÜÉ=ÑçêãÉê=Ñêçåí=ÑáÖìêÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=lê~åÖÉ=êÉîçäìíáçå=Ó=Ü~ë=êÉÅÉåíäó=íìêåÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=b~ëí=~ë=áåÇáÅ~íÉÇ=Äó=ÜÉê=åÉìíê~ä=ëí~åÅÉ=çå=oìëëá~=áå=íÜÉ=ï~ê=ïáíÜ=dÉçêÖá~K=qÜáë=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ=ëçãÉ=áëëìÉë=ÅçåÅÉêåáåÖ=ÜÉê=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~åÅÉ=~åÇ=ÜÉê=éçëáíáçåáåÖ=~ÜÉ~Ç=çÑ=íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçå=áå=É~êäó=OMNMK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=oìëëá~=áë=~å=áãéçêí~åí=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=é~êíåÉê=Ñçê=râê~áåÉI=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÑçêíÜÅçãáåÖ=åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=çÑ=åÉñí=óÉ~êÛë=Ö~ë=éêáÅÉëI=~åÇ=ÜÉê=íìêå~êçìåÇ=ÅçìäÇ=éêçÄ~Ääó=é~êíäó=ÄÉ=Éñéä~áåÉÇ=Äó=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÅçåëáÇÉê~íáçåëK=`ìêêÉåí=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÅÜ~çë=êáëâ=ÅçãéäáÅ~íáåÖ=~åÇ=ÇÉä~óáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=fjcJéêçÖê~ã=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=rpa=NSKR=Äáääáçå=äç~å=ëáåÅÉ=áí=êÉèìáêÉë=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=~=ÅçãéêÉÜÉåëáîÉ=éçäáÅó=é~Åâ~ÖÉI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=~Ççéíáçå=çÑ=ÉãÉêÖÉåÅó=äÉÖáëä~íáçå=ëìééçêíáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãK=
Industrial Production
Source: Reuters EcoWin 
JanAprJulOctJanAprJul0708
      I    n      d    e    x
80859095100105110115120
OverallBasic Metals andFabricated Metal Products
=
mäìããÉíáåÖ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó
K=^ÑíÉê=ã~åó=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ëíêçåÖ=éÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=ëìééçêíÉÇ= Äó=ëíêçåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜ=Éñéçêí=éêáÅÉëI=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=áë=åçï=áå=~=ëíÉÉé=ÇÉÅäáåÉI=ÇêáîÉå=áå=é~êí=Äó=ëÜ~êé=Ñ~ää=áå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ëíÉÉä=éêáÅÉë=ÜìêíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãÉí~ä=
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis October 27, 2008
ëÉÅíçê=~ÅÅçìåíáåÖ=Ñçê=QM=B=çÑ=íçí~ä=Éñéçêíë=~åÇ=S=B=çÑ=damK=qÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=êÉã~áåë=ÜáÖÜ=~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=OM=BI=~äÄÉáí=Ççïå=Ñêçã=áíë=éÉ~â=~í=PN=B=áå=j~ó=íÜáë=óÉ~êK=
=pìÄëí~åíá~ä=~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉë
K==qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ü~ë=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=ïáÇÉå=ÇìÉ=íç=îÉêó=ëíêçåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÖêçïíÜ=~åÇI=ãçêÉ=êÉÅÉåíäóI=íÜÉ=ÉêçÇáåÖ=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉåÉëë=çÑ=râê~áåÉÛë=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=áåÇìëíêóK=qÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=ëÜ~êéäó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=íç=rpa=UKT= Äáääáçå=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=rpa=PKQ=Äáääáçå=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇ=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=çÑ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êÛë=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=QKO=B=çÑ=dam=íç=~êçìåÇ=T=B=íÜáë=óÉ~êK=píêçåÖ=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïëI=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó=caf=Äìí=~äëç=ëíÉééÉÇ=ìé=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=ÄçêêçïáåÖI=Ü~îÉ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=Ñìääó=ÅçîÉêÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~ääçïáåÖ=~=ÄìáäÇJìé=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=rpa=PU=Äáääáçå=áå=^ìÖìëí=Ñêçã=rpa=PO=Äáääáçå=ÉåÇ=çÑ=OMMTK=páåÅÉ=^ìÖìëíI=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïë=Ü~îÉ=ëäçïÉÇ=ÄêáåÖáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=Ççïå=íç=rpa=PQ= Äáääáçå=áå=lÅíçÄÉêK===
mêÉëëáåÖ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=ëíêÉëëÉë=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=~å=fjcJäç~å
K=dÉåÉê~ä=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄí=EÇçãÉëíáÅ=~åÇ=ÉñíÉêå~äF=íç=dam=êÉã~áåë=äçï=~í=NM=B=çÑ=dam=ÉåÇJOMMTK=eçïÉîÉêI=ÜáÖÜÉê=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Ñêçã=~Äêç~Ç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=Öêçëë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=rpa=NMM=Äáääáçå=ãáÇJOMMU=Ñêçã=rpa=PM=Äáääáçå=ÉåÇJOMMQI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=ëÜ~êé=êáëÉ=áå=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Äó=Ä~åâë=íç=rpa=PU=Äáääáçå=Ñêçã=rpa=N=Äáääáçå=ä~êÖÉäó=ÇìÉ=íç=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=Äó=ÑçêÉáÖå=é~êÉåíë=EëÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=çå=é~ÖÉ=QFK=qÜáë=äÉ~îÉë=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=îìäåÉê~ÄäÉ=íç=Ä~ä~åÅÉJçÑJé~óãÉåí=êáëâë=~åÇ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáåÖ=ÖäçÄ~ä=äáèìáÇáíó=ÅçåÇáíáçåëK=få=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜáëI=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=~ÖêÉÉÇ=fjcJéêçÖê~ã=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=~=rpa=NSKR=Äáääáçå=äç~å=ìåÇÉê=~=OQJãçåíÜ=pí~åÇJ_ó=^êê~åÖÉãÉåí=ïçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=É~ëÉ=íÜÉ=éêÉëëáåÖ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=~åÇ=ÅçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=êÉëíçêÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëí~ÄáäáíóK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=äç~å=ïçìäÇ=çåäó=ÅçãÉ=áÑ=râê~áåÉÛë=é~êäá~ãÉåí=~ééêçîÉë=~=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=çÑ=ÉãÉêÖÉåÅó=äÉÖáëä~íáçå=~áãÉÇ=~í=ëìééçêíáåÖ=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=äáèìáÇáíóK==
mêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=Åçåíáåì
ÉK=qÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâI=ïÜáÅÜ=âÉéí=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Üêóîåá~=äáííäÉ=ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=Ççää~ê=íÜêçìÖÜçìí=OMMT=~åÇ=OMMSI=~ääçïÉÇ=áí=íç=íê~ÇÉ=ãçêÉ=ÑêÉÉäó=íÜáë=óÉ~êK==få=j~óI=íÜÉ=çÑÑáÅá~ä=r^eLrpa=ê~íÉ=ï~ë=êÉî~äìÉÇ=íç=QKUR=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=RKMR=äÉîÉä=éêÉî~áäáåÖ=ëáåÅÉ=^éêáä=OMMR=~åÇ=áå=lÅíçÄÉê=íÜÉ=çÑÑáÅá~ä=ê~íÉ=ï~ë=ÇÉî~äìÉÇ=íç=QKVR=~åÇ=ÑäìÅíì~íáçåë=ã~êÖáåë=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=íç=HLJ=U=B=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=Q=BK==eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ=Äó=OM=B=áå=lÅíçÄÉê=ÑçêÅáåÖ=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=íç=áåíÉêîÉåÉ=êÉéçêíÉÇäó=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=~êçìåÇ=rpa=P=Äáääáçå=Ñêçã=áíë=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅìêêÉåÅó=êÉëÉêîÉëK=açïåï~êÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=éÉêëáëí=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=íÉêãëJçÑ=íê~ÇÉ=~åÇ=éççê=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ÉîÉå=áÑ=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=fjcJäç~å=ÅçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=~îçáÇ=~=ÅìêêÉåÅó=ÅêáëáëK=
Exchange rate
Source: Reuters EcoWin 
Jan08MarMayJulSep
      U      S      D      /      U      A      H
4.504.755.005.255.505.756.00Reference rate4.95 +/- 8 %
2
 
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis October 27, 2008
=
_~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=íìêÄìäÉåÅÉK=
râê~áåÉÛë=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉÇ=ëçãÉ=ÇÉéçëáí=ïáíÜÇê~ï~äë=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñ~áäìêÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=ëáñíÜ
‐
 ÄáÖÖÉëí=Ä~åâI=mêçãáåîÉëíI=~ãáÇ=~=äáèìáÇáíó=ëèìÉÉòÉK=qÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=Ü~ë=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=ëÉîÉê~ä=ëìééçêí=ãÉ~ëìêÉë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=Ä~å=çå=É~êäó=ïáíÜÇê~ï~ä=çÑ=íÉêã=ÇÉéçëáíë=~åÇ=Éñíê~=äáèìáÇáíó=ëìééçêí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâK=qÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=áë=ÜáÖÜäó=Ççää~êáëÉÇ=ïáíÜ=RN=B=çÑ=äç~åë=ÇÉåçãáå~íÉÇ=áå=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅìêêÉåÅóK=fÑ=~ééêçîÉÇ=ëççåI=íÜÉ=fjcJé~Åâ~ÖÉ=ïçìäÇ=Öç=~=äçåÖ=ï~ó=áå=éêÉîÉåíáåÖ=~=ãÉäíÇçïå=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉ=ìåÜÉÇÖÉÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ÄçêêçïáåÖI=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó= Äó=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇëI=~=ëÜ~êé=Ççïåï~êÇ=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=ÅäÉ~ê=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=áãé~Åí=çå=~ëëÉí=èì~äáíó=áå=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãK=qÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=êáëâ=áåëçäîÉåÅó=çÑ=ïÉ~âÉê=Ä~åâëK===J=G=J=
=
qÜÉ=râê~áåá~å=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=ëìÑÑÉêáåÖ=Ñêçã=ä~êÖÉ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ÜáÖÜ=áåÑä~íáçåI=~=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê=ÉñíÉêå~ä= Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=åÉÉÇëK=fí=áë=åçï=ëäçïáåÖ=~Äêìéíäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëÜ~êéäó=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ëíÉÉä=éêáÅÉë=ÜìêíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=Éñéçêí=ëÉÅíçêK=qÜÉ=ÅçãÄáå~íáçå=çÑ=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ã~êâÉí=íìêãçáäI=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåÅÉêí~áåíó=Ü~îÉ=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=ÇÉéçëáí=ïáíÜÇê~ï~äI=ÜáÖÜÉê=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ãçåÉó=ã~êâÉí=ê~íÉë=~åÇ=Ççïåï~êÇ= éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÜìêíáåÖ=íÜÉ=~äêÉ~Çó=ïÉ~â=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=râê~áåÉÛë=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=êÉäá~åÅÉ=çå=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ñáå~åÅÉ=ã~âÉë=áí=é~êíáÅìä~êäó=îìäåÉê~ÄäÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ëáíì~íáçåK=qÜáë=Ü~ë=íêáÖÖÉêÉÇ=ëÉîÉê~ä=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉë=Äó=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉëK==râê~áåÉ=Ü~ë=~ëâÉÇ=Ñçê=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=~ëëáëí~åÅÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=fjcK=qÜÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=fjcJéêçÖê~ã=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=rpa=NSKR=Äáääáçå=äç~å=ÅçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=êÉëíçêÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëí~ÄáäáíóK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜ~í=ÇÉéÉåÇë=çå=íÜÉ=râê~áåá~å= é~êäá~ãÉåí=~ÇçéíáåÖ=ÉãÉêÖÉåÅó=äÉÖáëä~íáçå=íç=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãI=Ä~ä~åÅáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=~åÇ=~ÇÇêÉëë=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåíJ~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=éêçÄäÉã=~ë=êÉèìáêÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=fjcK===
=
Key ratios 2008
Population45.9GDP/capita ($)4592GDP (change)6%Inflation 25%
`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam
-7.1%Reserves/imports (months)3.7Budget balance/GDP-1.6%Government debt/GDP13%25%
Graph:
Ukraine shows no particular strengths but isgenerally weaker than the average emerging marketcountry as illustrated by the red solid line fallinguniformly inside the blue broken one.
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW=
cáíÅÜW===_HLåÉÖ~íáîÉjççÇóDëW=_NI=ëí~ÄäÉpCmW==_LåÉÖ~íáîÉ
 
mÉÉêëW
_ê~òáä=
mÜáäáééáåÉë=
qìêâÉó=
024681012
ResilienceLiquidityInformationAbsence of eventriskMacro balance
Ukraine Average EM Russia
How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.
===
3
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