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Onderzoek KMI en Universiteit Gent over de temperatuurverschillen tussen stad en platteland

Onderzoek KMI en Universiteit Gent over de temperatuurverschillen tussen stad en platteland

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Published by De Standaard
Overdag is het in de binnenstad gemiddeld 1 tot 1,5 graden warmer dan op het platteland, maar het verschil kan oplopen tot 5 graden. Dat blijkt uit een studie van het KMI en de UGent.
Overdag is het in de binnenstad gemiddeld 1 tot 1,5 graden warmer dan op het platteland, maar het verschil kan oplopen tot 5 graden. Dat blijkt uit een studie van het KMI en de UGent.

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Published by: De Standaard on Jun 11, 2013
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
 Int. J. Climatol.
(2013)Published online in Wiley Online Library(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.3734
Assessment of three dynamical urban climate downscalingmethods: Brussels’s future urban heat islandunder an A1B emission scenario
R. Hamdi,
a
*H. Van de Vyver,
a
R. De Troch
a,b
and P. Termonia
a,b
a
 Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium
b
 Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Belgium
ABSTRACT:
A new high-resolution dynamical downscaling strategy to examine how rural and urban areas respond tochange in future climate, is presented. The regional climate simulations have been performed with a new version of thelimited-area model of the ARPEGE-IFS system running at 4km resolution coupled with the Town Energy Balance (TEB)scheme. To downscale further the regional climate projections to a urban scale, at 1-km resolution, a stand-alone surfacescheme is employed in offline mode. We performed downscaling simulations according to three model set-ups: (1) referencerun, where TEB is not activated neither in 4km simulations nor in 1km urban simulation, (2) offline run, where TEB isactivated only for 1km urban simulation and (3) inline run, where TEB is activated both for regional and urban simulations.The applicability of this method is demonstrated for Brussels Capital Region, Belgium. For present climate conditions,another set of simulations were performed using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global reanalysisERA40 data. Results from our simulations indicate that the reference and offline runs have comparable values of daytimeand nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) and lower values than the inline run. The inline values are closer to observations.In the future climate, under and A1B emission scenario, the three downscaling methods project a decrease of daytime UHIbetween
0.24 and
0.20
C, however, their responses are different for nocturnal UHI: (1) reference run values remainsunaltered, (2) for the offline runs, the frequency of present climate weak nocturnal UHI decreases to the benefit of negativeUHIs leading to a significant decrease in the nocturnal UHI over the city and (3) for the inline run, nocturnal UHIs staysalways positive but the frequency of the strong UHI decreases significantly in the future by 1
C. The physical explanationis put forth. Copyright
2013 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS
urban heat island; climate change; dynamical downscaling; TEB; Brussels
 Received 25 September 2012; Revised 30 January 2013; Accepted 19 April 2013
1. Introduction
Today more than half of the human population livesin urban areas (Martine and Marshall, 2007) and by2020 almost 80% of Europeans will live in urban areas.Since cities are emerging as first responders of climatechange, scientists, urban planners and policy makersare beginning to work together in order to understandand monitor the interaction between urban areas andclimate change and to consider adaptation and mitigationstrategies (Rosenzweig
et al
., 2010). To maintain orimprove the quality of living in cities, urban plannersneed detailed information on future urban climate on theresidential scale. However, because impervious surfacescover only 0.34% of the world’s land area (Sutton
et al
., 2009), most of the global climate models (GCMs)that are utilized for climate change research do notaccount for urban surfaces (Best, 2006). The latest report
*Correspondence to: R. Hamdi, Royal Meteorological Institute,Avenue Circulaire, 3, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium.E-mail: rafiq.hamdi@meteo.be
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC, 2007) recognizes that urban warming in additionto greenhouse gas-induced warming has not explicitlybeen taken into account in climate change simulations.In fact, urban air temperatures are substantially higherthan corresponding temperatures in the surrounding ruralareas. This so-called urban heat island (UHI) effect thatarises from changes in the radiative, thermal, moistureand aerodynamic properties is most pronounced for night-time minimum temperatures (Oke
et al
., 1991). Theinfluence of the UHI effect and its response to increasedgreenhouse-gas concentration has received little attentionin the IPCC AR4 report (Christensen
et al
., 2007).In the last decade, increasingly sophisticated urbanparameterizations were used to improve the represen-tation of urban surface characteristics within the landsurface models coupled to mesoscale atmospheric mod-els. Numerous urban parameterization that simulate thesurface energy and water balance of the urban canopy aredescribed in the literature (see Masson, 2006 for a review)with varying levels of sophistication from relatively sim-plistic bulk approach (Lynn
et al
., 2009) to single-layer
Copyright
2013 Royal Meteorological Society
 
R. HAMDI
et al.
models (Masson, 2000; Kusaka
et al
., 2001; Jin
et al
.,2007) to the most sophisticated multi-layer schemes(Martilli
et al
., 2002; Hamdi and Masson, 2008). Cli-mate change modelling groups working at global scalesare now beginning to implement urban parameterizationwithin the land surface model component of their climatemodels. Recently, McCarthy
et al
., (2010) included capa-bility for sub-grid scale variation in surface properties,allowing multiple land surface types to occupy each GCMgrid cell and an urban land surface scheme (Best
et al
.,2006) has been included within the Hadley Centre GlobalClimate Model (HadAM3). In their study, McCarthy
et al
., (2010) investigated the changes in the UHI inten-sity under doubled CO
2
conditions and anthropogenicheat scenarios using the HadAM3 atmosphere-only withprescribed sea surface temperature. Similarly, Oleson
et al
., (2011) used the Community Atmosphere Modelversion 3.5 (CAM3.5) coupled to the Community LandModel-Urban (CLMU) to investigate UHI characteristicsfor present day through the end of the 21st century underan IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A2 scenario.This study has been expanded in Oleson (2012) to anal-yse climate change simulations being performed for theIPCC AR5 as part of the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, the response of urbanand rural areas is computed for present-day conditionsand three plausible trajectories of future climate con-ditions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs)]:RCP8.5, PCR4.5, and RCP2.6; Moss
et al
., (2010).However, because of the coarse resolution of GCMs,climate change signals projected by GCMs may notcapture certain mesoscale features of the UHI (Oleson
et al
., 2011). In fact, UHIs can induce thermodynami-cally driven regional-scale flows (i.e. the UHI circula-tion). In calm or low wind conditions, the warmer airin the city core rises, pulling air near the surface radi-ally inwards. A radially outward return flow may developaloft. A dome of heated air often forms above the city.For slightly stronger ambient winds, a plume of heatedair may extend downstream of the city transporting sen-sible heat between rural and urban areas (Hidalgo
et al
.,2008). Similarly, heat islands in adjacent cities may inter-act on occasion through advection so as to increase theheat island intensity in the downwind city (Zhang
et al
.,2009). Moreover, Guo
et al
., (2006) and Zhang
et al
.,(2009) conducted case studies investigating the effectsof urbanization in Beijing, China, on mesoscale con-vective precipitation events, and their results suggestedthat after urbanized modification, the surface latent heatflux is dramatically reduced because of the decrease inthe moisture availability, while the sensible heat fluxincreases. This helps to decrease the convective avail-able potential energy and the total precipitation in thewhole domain, and especially in the urbanized region.Recently, Miao
et al
., (2009) investigated the impacts of urban processes and urbanization on a localized, summer,heavy rainfall in Beijing using finescale simulations withthe Weather Research and Forecasting model. The resultsconfirm that urban surfaces tend to cause the rainfall tobe more locally concentrated and that the city does playan important role in determining storm movements andrainfall amounts. All these features are not resolved inthe aforementioned GCMs simulations. Another inher-ent limitation of these global climate simulations is that,traditionally, UHIs have been quantified by direct com-parison of temperatures between two or more stationsrepresenting urban and rural references, but the global cli-mate model cannot replicate such a diagnostic due to thecoarse resolution in comparison to urban heterogeneity.Moreover, the atmospheric forcing (e.g. long-wave radi-ation) of these global climate simulations is prescribedidentically over rural and urban surfaces that are withinthe same grid cell (McCarthy
et al
., 2010; Oleson
et al
.,2011). Furthermore, the urban class in these simulationsis almost exclusively medium density which neglects theareas that may have the largest heat islands with highdensity and tall building district. These density classesare likely to be more relevant in distinguishing betweenthe climate where people work and where people live(Oleson
et al
., 2011).Urban planners need climate scenarios including all theeffects caused by local urban features. For this reason,techniques for downscaling global climate model simu-lations have been used. One of the most used techniquesis based on the use of high-resolution regional climatemodels (RCM). Recently, McCarthy
et al
., (2012) usedthe latest version of the Hadley Centre Regional Cli-mate model HadRM3 at 25-km resolution coupled toa simple urban land-surface scheme (Best
et al
., 2006)to assess the sensitivity of UK urban climates to large-scale greenhouse gas induced climate change, local forc-ing from urban land use, and anthropogenic heat fluxresulting from energy use in urban areas. Kusaka
et al
.(2012a, 2012b) and Adachi
et al
. (2012) used the WeatherResearch and Forecast (WRF) model with a 3-km gridincrement coupled to an urban canopy model to studythe projected urban climate for the 2070s August, underSRES A1B scenario, in the three largest urban areas inJapan, Tokyo, Osaka and Nayoga. To further increase thehorizontal resolution over urban areas, Fr¨uh
et al
. (2011)and Lemonsu
et al
. (2013) propose a method that firstlyprojects the global climate at the regional scale accordingto both dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques,and then simulates in offline mode the urban climate byusing the specific urban climate model, MUKLIMO_3and SURFEX-TEB, respectively. However, because of the offline mode of these simulations, the UHI signa-ture is not included in the atmospheric forcing. Thus, thecontribution and feedback processes by UHI and climatechange are not taken into account when increasing thehorizontal resolution. Therefore, in this study we proposea new dynamical downscaling method at 1-km horizontalresolution using the limited area version of the ARPEGE-IFS model, ALADIN (Bubnova
et al
., 1995), coupledwith the TEB single-layer urban canopy model (Masson,2000). The applicability of the method is demonstratedfor the Brussels Capital Region (BCR), centrally locatedin Belgium, with a size of 161.78km
2
and a registered
Copyright
2013 Royal Meteorological Society
Int. J. Climatol.
(2013)
 
BRUSSELS’S FUTURE URBAN HEAT ISLAND
population of 1031215 on 1 January 2007, estimated bythe National Institute of Statistics (INS, 2009).
2. Data and methods
2.1. Model descriptionsThe atmospheric model used for the downscaling isALARO (Gerard
et al
., 2009), which is a new versionof the hydrostatic limited area ALADIN model with arevised and modular structure of the physical param-eterization. In Gerard
et al
. (2009), a new approachwas proposed, with an integrated sequential treatmentof resolved condensation, deep convection and micro-physics together with the use of prognostic variables. Thisnew parameterization allows for the production of con-sistent and realistic results at resolutions ranging fromfew tens of kilometers down to less than 4km (the so-called the grey zone, more details can be found in Gerard
et al
., 2009). It allows also handling feedback mecha-nisms present in nature and up to now only treated inmodels where the mesh size permits a fully explicit sim-ulation of convective clouds. This new version is usedoperationally by the meteorological services of the RoyalMeteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium to make short-range high-resolution weather forecasts. Recently, thisnew version was tested in a regional climate reanalysis-driven simulation over Belgium (Hamdi
et al
., 2012a).The objective of this study was to explore the abil-ity of high-resolution dynamical downscaling with thefinest grid size of 4km and sophisticated model physicsscheme to better represent summer maximum surface airtemperature over Belgium with emphasis on reproducingthe extremes. This new version reduced considerably theoriginal warm bias when using the diagnostic convec-tive scheme based on Bougeault (1985), which suggestsits ability to simulate weakly forced convective cloud inthe summer over Belgium. It showed also that the con-sistent treatment of deep convection and cloud-radiationinteraction when increasing the horizontal resolution isvery important when studying high temperatures events.In this study, ALARO is used with the Foucart–Morcretteradiation scheme (Morcrette, 1991). It has a shortwaveradiation scheme (Fouquart and Bonnel, 1980) with sixspectral bands, whereas the longwave radiation is com-puted by the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM)code (Mlawer
et al
., 1997).The newly developed surface scheme of M´et´eo-FranceSURFEX (SURface Externalis´ee; Le Moigne, 2009) hasbeen implemented in ALARO relying on the algorith-mic structure proposed by Best
et al
. (2004). SURFEXis an externalized surface scheme that can be run eitherin a coupled mode, in which case the atmospheric forc-ing is provided by the host atmospheric model (ALAROin our case), or in a stand-alone mode where the atmo-spheric drivers are derived either from observations ormodel output and fed to the surface scheme such thatit is decoupled from the atmospheric part of a model.Therefore, no feedback exists between the surface andthe upper air part of the atmosphere. In SURFEX, eachgrid box is made of four adjacent surfaces: nature, urbanareas, sea or ocean and lake, associated with specificparameterization. Horizontal interaction does not existbetween the different surface area tiles. The coverageof each of these surfaces in known through the globalECOCLIMAP database (Masson
et al
., 2003). Sea tilesuse the Exchange Coefficients from Unified Multicam-paigns Estimates (ECUME) parameterization (Belamariand Pirani, 2007). Inland waters use the classical for-mula of Charnock (1955). The interactions between soil,biosphere and atmospheric (ISBA) model (Noilhan andPlanton, 1989) is used for vegetated areas and finally theTEB single-layer urban canopy model (Masson, 2000) isused for urban tiles. TEB is based on the canyon con-cept, where the town is represented with a roof, a roadand two facing walls. The advantage is that relativelyfew individual surface energy balance evaluations needto be resolved, radiation interactions are simplified, andtherefore computation time is kept low. Water, energy andmomentum fluxes are computed by each parameterizationand then aggregated at the grid-mesh scale according tothe cover fraction of each tile. Recently, in the study of Hamdi
et al
., (2012b), the TEB scheme was implementedwithin ALARO running operationally at 4km resolution.The primary question addressed was the ability of TEBto function at this relatively coarse resolution and, thus,assessing its potential use in an operational configurationto improve sensible weather performance over Belgium.The results show that promising improvements with ademonstrated positive impact are achieved by introduc-ing TEB. The 2-m temperature and 2-m relative humid-ity improve compared to measurements in urban areas.Important urban characteristics, such as increased heatstorage and Bowen ratio and the UHI effect, were suc-cessfully reproduced. In addition, comparison of windspeed and wind direction above the urban canopy indi-cate that the structure of the flow in urban areas is betterreproduced with TEB.2.2. Regional climate simulationsWe utilize global climate scenarios from the ARPEGE-Climat (Gibelin and equ´e, 2003) GCM from M´et´eo- France. Climate projections were produced within theFP6 ENSEMBLE project. We take the ARPEGE-Climattime slice 2071–2100 resulting from the IPCC SRESA1B scenario to estimate future change. Within thisscenario, the mean temperature over Belgium is projectedto increase by 3
C at the end of the 21st century. Forreference, the A1B scenario describes a future worldof very rapid economic growth, global population thatpeaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and therapid introduction of new and more efficient technologieswith a balance across fossil and non-fossil sources.The evaluation period 1961–1990 is chosen for thecomparison of observations and simulation results. Inaddition, another set of simulations for the present climateconditions were performed using the European Center
Copyright
2013 Royal Meteorological Society
Int. J. Climatol.
(2013)

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