RETAILNETGROUP STRATEGY ALERTRNG's Latest Chain Retail Forecasts for Latin AmericaApril 2009
We recently completed a major update for our chain retailer database in Latin America and wanted to briefly highlighta few of the themes we came across during our update.For those not familiar with RNG's coverage in Latin America,
we closely track, monitor, & forecast over $200billion dollars in chain retail sales
accounting for close to 20% of formal retail sales in a region with a combinedGDP of more than $3.5 trillion dollars.Please read on for the five biggest themes coming out of from our update. Subscribers can access these detailedviews at the banner & market level atretailnetgroup.com.As always, please reach out with any questions or concerns - we are here to help.Sincerely,Aaron Chio Senior AnalystRetailNet Group
I. Chain retail sales will slow down significantly...
... but continue to grow sales & share. (Figure 1)Despite talks of potential deflation in developed markets, inflation still remains high throughout most of Latin America.In addition, currency depreciations will impact prices of imported goods, further pressuring costs & price pointshigher. These two things should somewhat offset economic slowdown in the region - at least nominally.Nonetheless, RNG is still forecasting a
marked slowdown in sales & store growth across the board
down fromdouble digit, 11.9%, to single digit, 6.9%, sales growth for chain retailers.
Figure 1: Sales & stores forecasts, Top 25 retailers in Latin America