African Petroleum Plc
Interim Results: 3 Months Ended March 31, 2008
Research Update
AP 3M, March 2008 Interim Results
WEST AFRICA
A Member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange
May 14, 2008
1
Chart 1: Revenues, 3M Interim and FY2008 Forecast
Strong earnings growth; positive outlook (on the back of capital raise and Zenon merger):
AP recentlyreleased interim results for the three month (3M) period to March 31, 2008. Turnover was up 34.3% to N35.1bn(US$297.5m) compared to the corresponding period in 2007. In a similar vein, Profit before Tax (PBT) was up51.4% to N3.2bn (US$27.1m). This is an impressive performance, following closely on similarly strong FY2007results. We expect the company to maintain this trend going forward, as new management appears to havere-aligned the company’s business model to focus more on higher margin, non-regulated products (such asdiesel for electricity generating sets). AP appears to be benefiting from access to Zenon supply sources for diesel.Zenon is a virtual monopoly in diesel importation into Nigeria. We expect strong long term growth to comefrom the AP/Zenon merger, but remain
NEUTRAL
on AP at this time; with a
N320.00
12 month price target.
Chart 2: PBT, 3M Interim and FY2008 ForecastSource: NSE, Afrinvest Research Source: NSE, Afrinvest ResearchPrice Target (Naira)
320.00
Share Price, Naira (May 14, 2008)
293.98
Market Cap (Naira, bn)
231.9
Market Cap (US$, bn)
2.0
52-Week Range (Low - High)
57.00 - 300.98
ROE (FY 2008E), %
77.4
2008E P/E, Times
26.7
Shares Outstanding (m)
788.8
Company Description:African Petroleum (AP) is one of the major retail marketersin the Nigerian downstream petroleum sector, with thethird largest market share. Previously governmentcontrolled, AP has now been acquired by a leadingprivately owned downstream operator: Zenon. Plans areunderway to merge AP and Zenon into one company.Chart 3: Key Ratios and StatisticsChart 4: Last Twelve Months Price Performance, versus NSESource: Afrinvest Research Source: NSE, Afrinvest Research
26.235.1140.4-20.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.02007 3M 2008 3M 2008 FYE
50.0150.0250.0350.0450.0550.0
M a y - 0 7 J u n - 0 7 J u l - 0 7 A u g - 0 7 S e p - 0 7 O c t - 0 7 N o v - 0 7 D e c - 0 7 J a n - 0 8 F e b - 0 8 M a r - 0 8 A p r - 0 8 M a y - 0 8
NSEAP
%, Rebased to 100
2.13.212.8-2.04.06.08.010.012.014.02007 3M 2008 3M 2008 FYE
Naira, BillionsNaira, Billions
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