Space
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launch vehicle production, launch services, pro-duction of earth-based tracking and control ter-minals, handheld global positioning system(GPS) or telephone receiver/transmitters equip-ment, sophisticated satellite control earth sta-tions, satellite insurance, and the sale of space- based services.The value of information collected or trans-mitted via space systems is immeasurable, as isthe value of direct applications of space technol-ogy to society. Additionally, U.S. corporationsgain efficiencies and a competitive advantage inthe world market as a result of their access tospace-based information.The benefits of space-based systems reachevery level of U.S. society. Satellite dishes pro-vide direct TV to over 10 million households.Satellite navigation systems in American cars areroutine. Space systems provide crucial data forenvironmental monitoring, real-time weatherforecasts, and long-term trend assessments. Ac-curate weather projections have profoundly af-fected agriculture, severe weather warnings, avi-ation operations, maritime operations, and manyother aspects of daily life.
Space and Oceans:
Can They Be Controlled?
Space and Oceans:
Can They Be Controlled?
CHAPTER TWENTY
S P A C E A N D O C E A N S
S
pace and oceans have become an im-portant component of international af-fairs. Prospects for controlling them ina manner that serves U.S. interests, theWestern community, and peace and stability areaddressed here. Control of both mediums likelywill face growing challenges.
Space
Transformation from the industrial to the in-formation age is far from complete, but the rate of change is accelerating. Because the United Statesis at the forefront of the information age, ad-vanced technology and information have beenthe engine of economic strength and militaryprowess. Space-based capabilities have becomeso intertwined with U.S. society that continuedunimpeded access to space has become a vitalU.S. interest.In the 21
st
century, space systems will be thenexus among economic, diplomatic, and militaryelements of national power. The United Stateshas $100 billion invested in space today; in thenext century this investment could approach 10percent of the U.S. gross domestic product(GDP). This includes satellite manufacturing,
Growth of Commercial Space Worldwide
Sources:
Air Force Magazine,
March 1998; Air Force Scientific Advisory Board,“Space Roadmap for the 21
st
Century Aerospace Force,”November 1998.
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Key Trends
Increasing Commercial Activityin Space
In 1997, the world spent $79 billion on spacesystems. By 2001, it is expected to reach $117 bil-lion. In 1996, the United States spent more in thecommercial space sector than on military space.This trend will increase. Currently, some 600satellites are in orbit, with roughly a third belong-ing to the United States. Within the next decade,the world will launch over 1,500 satellites, withthe commercial sector responsible for the vastmajority. They will provide customers with com-munications, remote sensing, and navigation ca-pabilities approaching the capabilities and techni-cal sophistication of military capabilities.The projected growth in space systems ismost evident in commercial satellite communi-cations. Emerging technologies and huge poten-tial profits have led to fierce competition amongsatellite manufacturers, communication systemoperators, and the developing internationallaunch industry. No fewer than eight majorcommunication projects are underway. Withinthe next decade, these projects will launch over500 satellites.The Iridium communications system beganoperating in 1998 and has completed its 66-satel-lite constellation. Teledesic’s system is scheduledto go online in 2001, with full service in 2003.Teledesic hopes to eventually have 288 low-earth-orbit satellite systems and provide sub-scribers with what has been described as world-wide, fiber optics, quality data transmission.These mobile telephone systems and others willoffer a superior “communication systems in being” to anyone with a credit card.Once the purview of governments, commer-cial remote-sensing systems are entering themarketplace. The demand for high-resolutionimagery is expanding into such areas as farming,land management, urban planning, environmen-tal monitoring, cartography, and hydrology. Ac-cording to Commerce Department estimates,growth in commercial remote sensing systemssales and services will increase from $150 millionin 1990 to $2 billion in 2000. Within the next 4years, 20 new commercial remote sensing satel-lites are expected to be in operation.Not only are commercial assets plentiful,their products are becoming inexpensive andtechnologically sophisticated. Today’s commer-cial systems offer a variety of technologies for im-agery, including electro-optical systems, syntheticaperture radar, and infrared systems. Previously,the industry standard was 10- to 30-meter resolu-tion imagery. Soon, commercially available satel-lites will offer 1-meter resolution imagery. Al-ready a foreign commercial/civil system offers broad area, high-resolution multispectral imageryfor $4,000, and recently, a U.S. agency proposedselling Landsat–7 data for as little as $400 a scene.Commercial growth in the use of the GPS isstaggering. What was essentially a system de-signed for military applications has become a vi- brant industry. The Commerce Department re-ports that global sales for GPS receivers were$867 million in 1994 and nearly $1.3 billion in1995 and are projected to grow to $8 to $10 bil-lion by 2000. In 1995, more than 500,000 GPSusers were in the United States By 2000, thisnumber is projected to be 2.5 million. Initially de-veloped by the Defense Department, the militaryshare of the GPS receiver market is steadilyshrinking. By 2000, it will represent only 1.5 per-cent of the total.GPS technology enables precision track-ing—a critical capability with many military and
199119962001 Year0204060
B i l l i o n U S $
11.526.757.5Ground EquipmentSatellite ServicesSatellitesLaunches
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commercial applications. Delivery companieslike UPS and FEDEX closely monitor their fleets,enabling them to accomplish efficient deliveryschedules. Construction contractors use GPS tostreamline complex surveying projects. Automo- bile manufacturers are offering consumers suchGPS services as location and direction finding,trip-tracking, and emergency-response assis-tance. Hikers use GPS to navigate unfamiliar ter-rain. Its potential uses are nearly unlimited.Since the Gulf War, GPS has significantly im-proved the accuracy of both its position data andtiming data. According to the U.S. Space Com-mand, precision timing provided by GPS proba- bly offers the greater commercial value. Cellularphone calls are measured by GPS-provided stan-dards. Computer use and many other time-sensi-tive applications depend on GPS to provide tim-ing for billing purposes. The recent 30-secondtime error in one satellite caused a 1-day failureof a cellular net, costing millions of dollars.The U.S. Government’s 1996 GPS policystatement recognizes the civil and commercialsignificance of GPS. Previously, GPS signals weredegraded for commercial users. The new policydirected the Department of Defense (DOD) todiscontinue this practice and to provide world-wide users with the same accurate navigationsignals as provided military users.
Increasing Military Useof Commercial Systems
Anation wages war the way it produceswealth. Just as oil was essential for industrial-agewarfare, space-based information will be centralto war in the information age. Space systems have become integral to military operations from thestrategic level all the way down to the tacticallevel of warfare. Remote sensing, weather, andcommunication satellites provide the means of gathering, harnessing, processing and distributinginformation. The GPS directly supports new gen-erations of weapons, including the most advancedTomahawk and standoff attack munitions.
Existing or Planned Satellite Systems of 10-Meter or Better Resolution
System Status Resolution Swath Width Data Sources Operator Spectral Bands Sensor(s) WWW Revisit Time
EarlyBirdLost 12/97Pan=3mPan=36kmEarthWatchEarthWatchPan,G,R,NIRPan,MSwww.digitalglobe.com2 to 5 daysMS=15mMS=925kmdepending onlatitudeQuickBirdExpected 1999Pan=1mPan=22kmEarthWatchEarthWatchPan,MS,NIRPan,MSwww.digitalglobe.com1 to 4 daysMS=4mMS=22kmdepending onlatitudeIKONOS–1 &Expected mid-Pan=1m11kmSpace ImagingSpace ImagingPan,VNIRPan,MSwww.spaceimaging.comEvery 3-5 daysIKONOS–2to late 1998MS=4mfrom a differentangle; 140 daysfor the same pathin the same orbitIRIS IC/IDOperationalPan=5.8mLISS=141kmSpace ImagingIndian RemoteLISS 3,WIFS,PanLISS 3 (Linearwww.spaceimaging.com24 daysMS3=23.5m,Pan=70km(in U.S.)Sensing AgencyImaging Self70.5m,188mWIFS=774kmScanner),Pan& WIFS (WideField Sensor)OrbView–3Expected 1999Pan=1 & 2mPan=8kmOrbImageOrbImage,Inc.Pan,MSPan,MS,HSwww.orbimage.comLess than 3 daysMS=4mMS=8kmHS=8mHS=5kmRADARSATOperationalMicrowave;50–500kmSpace ImagingCanadian SpaceC BandSyntheticwww.spaceimaging.com24 days8–100m(in U.S.)Agency (CSA)ApertureRadarResource 21Expected 199910–20m cirrus205kmBoeingResource 21MSMSwww.boeing.comTwice in 25 min100+mx400kmResource 21per day at equator;twice weekly withnadir viewResursOperationalMS=2m,10m180km,200kmU.S.Spin–2Sovinfom-sputnikPan,DigitizedKVR–1000www.spin-2.com16–17 daysphotographsCameraSPOT 4OperationalPan=10m60km,2250kmSPOT ImageCNES & SPOT ImageMS,VNIR,Pan,2 HRVs (Hautewww.spot.com26 daysMS=20mside-lookingResolution Visible)
Source:
Commercial Space & Military Information Dominance,Assessing Security on the New Frontier,
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis,June 1998.
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