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1President Obama and Sudan
This is the third installation in a series of open letters to President Obama spelling out a practical roadmap to end the crisis in Sudan.
On March 30, key aciviss me wih Presiden Barack Obama and his Special Envoy orSudan, Major General Scot Graion, in he Wes Wing o he Whie House. PresidenObama made i clear ha his adminisraion would work vigorously o bring an end ohe war in Darur and help implemen he Comprehensive Peace Agreemen, or CPA, beween he Norh and Souh. Aer exensive consulaions wih members o PresidenObama’s eam, U.N. ocials, diplomas rom oher key counries, and Sudanese acors,his paper is an atemp o pu orward a blueprin o achieve Presiden Obama’s objec-ive o a comprehensive peace or all o Sudan. Te good news is ha his is a goal shared widely hroughou he inernaional communiy. Te key missing ingredien or isachievemen is sraegic leadership rom he Unied Saes.In his paper we lay ou he srucures we hink are necessary o achieve peace in Darurand implemen i in he Souh, Eas, and ransiional zones beween he Norh and Souh,all areas o acive or poenial conic. We also lay ou a se o ocused and meaningulsicks and carros necessary o leverage he various paries o nd a peaceul soluion o heinerlocking conics wihin Sudan and regionally.In Darur, he expulsion o key humaniarian aid groups and closure o Sudanese aid orga-nizaions have creaed increasingly precarious condiions or he 2.7 million inernally-dis-placed camp dwellers, alhough some arrangemen o expedie he resumpion o some aidoperaions appears o be pending. Brual harassmen o Sudanese human righs deendershas silenced inernal voices o dissen. Presiden Omar el-Bashir’s use o sarvaion as a weapon o war is an atemp o disrac he world rom he real issues o accounabiliy inDarur, he elecions in Sudan early nex year and he implemenaion o he CPA. TeSudanese governmen should ace clear coss rom he inernaional communiy or so blaanly abrogaing is responsibiliy o proec is own populaion.In he Souh, here is a mere one year and nine monhs le beore he scheduled dae oran independence reerendum, and he CPA implemenaion is grinding o a hal on key  benchmarks. Meanwhile, localized violence demonsraes boh he Souh’s insiuionalragiliy and vulnerabiliy o radiional divide-and-conquer sraegies direced romKharoum. I le unchallenged, Bashir will coninue o view efors o omen violence,
President Obama and Sudan
A Blueprint for Peace
John Prendergast, Omer Ismail, Jerry Fowler, and Sam Bell
 
2President Obama and Sudan
insabiliy, and displacemen in he Souh and Darur as his mos efecive insrumens o con-rol. Bashir’s use o proxy miliias—he Janjaweed in Darur, he Murahaliin in Norh-Souh border areas, and oher miliias hroughou he Souh—has served as an efecive means orhim o mainain power in Kharoum, bu i has also unleashed he cenriugal orces ha could violenly rip Sudan apar.Presiden Obama mus be rm in responding o he impending humaniarian crisis, promo-ing proecion o civilians and accounabiliy, and working oward a viable long-erm peace haincludes boh Darur and a reinvigoraed CPA. I he expulsion o key groups rom Darur andelsewhere was suddenly lied by Kharoum, he siuaion on he ground would improve grealy.Bu he essenial dynamics o he siuaion would remain unaccepable—wih no clear peaceprocess or Darur, he CPA raying, UNAMID inefecive, civilians desperaely vulnerable, andPresiden Bashir sill a waned ugiive rom inernaional jusice.
Forging a multilateral peace strategy
Here’s he opporuniy: a global consensus exiss or peace in Sudan, even i here is no agree-men on he bes pah o achieve his goal. China, he Arab League, he Arican Union, heEuropean Union, and he Unied Saes all wan peace, bu litle has been done o build henecessary inrasrucure o help bring i abou. Wha has long been missing in Sudan is America’ssraegic leadership. Te rebels, he ruling pary, Sudan’s neighbors, and oher key acors have all been waiing or Presiden Obama and his eam o engage.Te CPA isel was reached aer a susained invesmen in diplomacy, led in par by he UniedSaes, suppored by relevan regional and inernaional powers, and backed by signican incen-ives and pressures. Ta hard-won agreemen would no now be in jeopardy i he invesmen indiplomacy had been mainained and he inernaional communiy had coninued is pressure oensure ha he agreemen was implemened. I is no oo lae or he Unied Saes o reinves inensuring ha he ousanding issues prevening ull implemenaion o he CPA are addressed,and he Obama adminisraion mus ake hese seps or wach he possible violen disinegraiono Sudan and desabilizaion o he broader region over he nex several years.Te Obama adminisraion mus lead in consrucing a mulilaeral sraegy or peace by esab-lishing an inclusive peace process or Darur, revializing implemenaion o he CPA and he dan-gerously negleced Easern Sudan Peace Agreemen, and ending Sudan’s proxy war wih Chad.oward ha end, General Graion should ocus on building a mulilaeral coaliion o counries wih signican leverage. A he same ime as he processes are being consruced, he UniedSaes should assiduously work o creae he necessary unilaeral and mulilaeral carros andsicks o press he paries in he direcion o a peaceul and comprehensive setlemen o Sudan’smuliple, inerlocking conics. I is vial ha he adminisraion work closely wih oher key governmens in dealing wih Sudan; a reliance on bilaeral diplomacy will provide Kharoum heopporuniy o play one pary of agains he oher, as i has hisorically done wih grea success.
Darfur peace process:
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Te srucure should be similar o he Naivasha alks ha producedhe CPA, and some o he ingrediens are already in place. As did Kenyan General LazaroSumbeiywo wih he Naivasha process, AU-UN Mediaor Djibril Bassolé should lead heDarur process, which can be based in Doha, Qaar (alhough Qaar’s recen diplomaic sup-
 
3President Obama and Sudan
por or Bashir in he wake o he ICC indicmen has impaired is credibiliy as a aciliaoro negoiaions). He mus be suppored by a srong eam o diplomas and regional expersand backed by a small group o counries wih leverage, high-level suppor, and ull-imerepresenaion a he alks. We believe ha his inner circle should include he Unied Saes,Unied Kingdom, France, China, and Egyp. An ouer circle group o counries and mulilaeralorganizaions (UN, AU, Arab League) should also be engaged in a ormal manner o discouragespoilers, and oher key naions such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, and Souh Arica wouldneed o be horoughly consuled. Te Darur peace alks will need srong civil sociey repre-senaion, including women, i hey are o produce a susainable agreemen. For example, heMo Ibrahim Foundaion is supporing he Darur Civil Sociey Conerence o help Daruriansariculae a peace iniiaive ha will include civil sociey represenaives rom Greaer Darurin an efor orge “a consrucive vision shaping he uure o Darur around he principles o peace, securiy, jusice and—above all—developmen.” Tis iniiaive is no inended o beparallel o on-going peace efors, bu o serve as a complemen o such efors. Similarly, heInsiue or Inclusive Securiy has done considerable work designed o promoe he role o  women a he negoiaing able.
CPA implementation:
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Te Assessmen and Evaluaion Commission esablished by he CPA is clearly insucien o monior and press he paries o implemen he deal—largely becausei lacks sucienly senior represenaion and clear reporing guidelines. As a mater o inerna-ional peace and securiy, CPA implemenaion should be a he oreron o he U.N. Securiy Council’s agenda and he Council should back a new ad-hoc mechanism o guide implemena-ion. Te Obama adminisraion should quickly work wih oher Securiy Council members,relevan U.N. agencies, and he regional Inergovernmenal Auhoriy on Developmen, orIGAD, o esablish core benchmarks or he paries, a clear imeline, and genuine penalies orailure o mee deadlines. An inernaional meeing on CPA implemenaion could provide a vehicle or reenergizing efors around he CPA and provide he launching pad or he creaiono he ad-hoc implemenaion mechanism.
Chad-Sudan peace process:
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Te Sudanese governmen coninues o seek a miliary soluionor Darur hrough regime change in Chad, and Chad coninues o back he JEM in response.Te Obama adminisraion should work wih France and China o suppor high-level negoia-ions in Libya aimed a reducing sae suppor or oreign-armed groups and evenual normal-izaion o relaions.
Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement monitoring:
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Easern Sudan remains volaile. Te Obamaadminisraion should work wih is inernaional parners—paricularly he UK and Norway—and wih he Erirean and Saudi governmens o esablish a monioring group or he agreemenha will repor on implemenaion and make recommendaions or improvemens.
Building the necessary leverage
 A serious peace process wih credible mediaion puting orward air proposals will secure a dealor Darur. A compeen and higher level oversigh mechanism wih he involvemen o counries wih inuence will ensure he implemenaion o he CPA. Having he righ balance o meaning-ul pressures and incenives will ensure ha prospecs or success are much greaer.
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