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Currency Daily Report, June 17 2013

Currency Daily Report, June 17 2013

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Published by Angel Broking
17th June, 2013
17th June, 2013

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Published by: Angel Broking on Jun 17, 2013
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Currencies Daily Report
 
Monday| June 17, 2013
 
www.angelbroking.com
 
Content 
OverviewUS DollarEuroGBPJPYEconomic Indicators
Angel Broking Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500
Disclaimer:
The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness andcorrectness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel
Broking
Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated o
n 
Research Team
Reena RohitChief ManagerNon-Agri Commodities and Currencies
Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134
Anish VyasResearch Analyst
anish.vyas@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Overview:
 
 
Currencies Daily Report
 
Monday| June 17, 2013
 
www.angelbroking.com
 
Highlights
RBI Monetary Policy Review at 11.00 am today.
 
India’s WPI inflation declined to 4.7 percent in the last month.
 
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 82.7-mark in June.
 
European CPI remained unchanged at 1.4 percent in May.
 
Asian markets are trading higher today, ahead of major monetary policydecisions of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), that is scheduled for today.
The Federal Reserve’s two
-day meeting will begin tomorrow and the
world’s largest central bank would announce
its decision on Wednesday.Both these decisions are important from the Indian market point of 
view, as the RBI’s meeting would set a tone from the domesticperspective, while the Fed’s decision or statement will help the Indian
markets take further course accordingly.US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5 percent in May as againsta decline of 0.7 percent in April. Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.8points to 82.7-mark in June when compared to rise of 84.5-level in May.
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to 4.7 percent in
May as against a rise of 4.89 percent in April. WPI fuel index dropped to7.32 percent in May from previous rise of 8.8 percent a month ago. WPIfood inflation rose to 8.25 percent in last month as compared to 6.1percent in April.
US Dollar Index
The
US Dollar Index
(DX) declined 1.2 percent in the last week on theback of better than forecast retail sales and jobless claims data from US.Further, expectations of Fed keeping interest rates lower anduncertainty over the Fed regarding reducing its bond buying programexerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched a weeklylow of 80.51 and closed at 80.65 on Friday.
Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis,
Indian Rupee
depreciated 0.8 percent on account of cut in the growth outlook of the economy to 5.7 percent by World Bank.Further, weak global and domestic markets coupled with unfavorableindustrial production and manufacturing output data from the countryadded downside pressure on the currency.However, sharp downside in the Rupee was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX along with favorable inflation data from theeconomy. The currency touched a low of 58.98 in the last week andclosed at 57.49 against dollar on Friday.For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.1,457.70 crores($244.39 million) as on 14
th
June 2013. Year to date basis, net capitalinflows stood at Rs.81,747.40 crores ($15,108.60 million) till 14
th
June2013.
Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, Rupee is expected to trade on a mixednote ahead of RBI
s monetary policy decision. Further trend in theRupee will be dependent on announcement and statement by the Fed ina meeting which will begin tomorrow.
Market Highlights
(% change)
 
as on June 14, 2013
LastPrev.dayWoW MoMYoYNIFTY
5808.4 1.9 -1.2 -5.5 14.9
SENSEX
19177.9 1.9 -1.3 -5.1 4.9
DJIA
15070.18 -0.7 -1.2 -1.9 19.1
S&P
1626.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 22.4
FTSE
16152.9 0.2 -3.2 -7.3 20.6
KOSPI
1959.2 -1.5 1.8 -1.4 2.0
BOVESPA
58497.8 0.2 13.3 5.0 4.3
NIKKEI
12686.5 1.9 -0.1 -12.4 48.0
Nymex Crude(
July’
13) - $/bbl
97.85 1.2 1.9 1.9 16.6
Comex Gold (
Aug’
13)- $/oz
1387.30 0.7 0.1 0.2 -14.3
ComexSilver(
July’13
) $/oz
21.95 1.7 1.0 -1.7 -22.7
LME Copper (3month) -$/tonne
7091.00 0.4 -2.0 -9.6 -6.2
CRB Index(Industrial)
- - - - -
G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -Yield
102.09 0.0 2.7 -2.3 -1.1
Source: Reuters
US Dollar
(% change)
 
as on June 14, 2013
 
LastPrev.dayWoW MoM YoYDollar Index
80.65 -0.1 -1.2 -4.4 1.5
US $ / INR (Spot)
57.49 0.9 -0.8 -4.9 -3.7
US $ / INR
June’13
 Futures (NSE)
57.64 -0.79 0.69 4.86 3.22
US $ / INR June
’1
3Futures (MCX-SX)
57.64 -0.81 0.63 4.87 3.20
Technical Chart
 –
USD/INR
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
valid for June 17, 2013
 
Trend Support ResistanceUS Dollar/INR June
’1
3(NSE/MCX-SX)
Down 57.50/57.30 57.80/58.0
 
 
Currencies Daily Report
 
Monday| June 17, 2013
 
www.angelbroking.com
 Euro
(% change)
 
as on June 14, 2013
 
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoYEuro /$ (Spot)
1.3346 -0.2 0.9 3.6 5.6
Euro / INR (Spot)
76.64 0.8 -1.4 -8.7 -11.7
Euro / INR June
’1
3Futures (NSE)
76.8 -0.80 1.16 7.90 9.46
Euro / INR June
’1
3Futures (MCX-SX)
76.8 -0.80 1.13 7.89 9.44
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart
 –
Euro
Source: Telequote
 GBP
(% change)
 
as on June 14, 2013
 
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY$ / GBP (Spot)
1.5703 -0.10 0.9 3.1 -0.1
GBP / INR (Spot)
90.287 -0.89 1.68 8.20 4.03
GBP / INRJune
’1
3 Futures(NSE)
90.11 -0.92 1.13 7.31 3.95
GBP / INR June
’1
3 Futures(MCX-SX)
90.11 -0.88 1.07 7.33 3.96
Source: Reuters
 
Technical Chart
 –
Sterling Pound
Source: Telequote
 
Euro/INR
The
Euro
appreciated 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable industrial production data fromthe region supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched aweekly high of 1.339 and closed at 1.3346 against the dollar on Friday.However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of weak globalmarkets coupled with cut in the economic outlook by the World Bank forthe Euro Zone.European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.4percent in the month of May. Core CPI rose to 1.2 percent in May fromearlier rise of 1 percent a month ago. Employment Change fell by 0.5percent in Q1 of 2013 with respect to earlier fall of 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012.
Outlook
In today’s session, we expect the Euro to
strength on the back of Italy
sannouncement of 3 billion Euros investment in infrastructure projects.The jobs markets and infrastructure sector will get a boost and willsupport an upside in the currency.Technical Outlook
valid for June 17, 2013
Trend Support ResistanceEuro/INR June
’1
3(NSE/MCX-SX)
Down 76.50/76.20 77.0/77.30
GBP/INR
On a weekly basis,
Sterling Pound
appreciated 0.9 percent on the backof weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from thecountry acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Sterling Poundtouched a high of 1.5734 and closed at 1.5703 against dollar on Friday.However, weak global markets prevented sharp gains in the currency.
UK’s Conference Board (CB) Leading Index decline to 0.2 percent in April
as against a rise of 0.4 percent in earlier month.
Outlook
We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will support anupside in the prices.Technical Outlook
valid for June 17, 2013
Trend Support ResistanceGBP/INR June
’1
3(NSE/MCX-SX)
Sideways 89.95/89.70 90.40/90.65

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