Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more ➡
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Add note
Save to My Library
Sync to mobile
Look up keyword
Like this
0Activity
×
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Conn Econ Summer_2013 (1)

Conn Econ Summer_2013 (1)

Ratings: (0)|Views: 84|Likes:
Published by Jordan Fenster
UConn's Connecticut's Economy Summer 21013
UConn's Connecticut's Economy Summer 21013

More info:

Published by: Jordan Fenster on Jun 17, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See More
See less

06/17/2013

pdf

text

original

 
CRIME AND EDUCATION AT ACROSSROADS
Crime and Public Spending Controlling Gun ViolenceThe Cost o Equal Educational Opportunit
SUMMER 2013
 
2
 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMY 
Summer 2013
CONNECTICUTECONOMIC INDICATORS
(Percent change: 2012-Q1 to 2013-Q1)
Indicatos of Cuent Economic Activity 
 Total Nonarm Jobs +0.3%Number Unemploed -3.3%Labor Force -1.7%Manuacturing  Jobs -1.6%Average Weekl Hours +0.1%Average Hourl Earnings -9.8%CT Mg. Production Index -4.4%New Auto Registrations -2.9% Travel and Tourism Index -3.7%Bradle Airport Passengers -4.7%Freight -9.0%State Tax ReceiptsIncome 2.8%Sales -7.9%Real Estate Conveance +20.9%Electricit Sales +2.3%State Exports +5.4%Personal Income (est.) +2.7%Coincident GDI -0.1%
 Indicatos of Futue Economic Activity 
Initial Unemploment Claims -2.5%Housing Permits +0.5%Net New Business Starts -25.7%Leading GDI +2.3%
CONTENTS
Summe 2013 – Volume 21 Numbe 3
Taking Stock ........................................
2
Crime in Connecticut ..........................
3
Gun Violence .......................................
5
Centerfold: Town Crime Rates............
8
Paying for ECS ...................................
10
Labor Market Outlook .......................
12
Labor Market Data ............................
13
Quarterly Forecast .............................
14
A Forward Look .................................
16
 TAKING STOCK 
Back on Track?
The meager 0.3% increase in jos during the four quarters ending 2013-Q1elies Connecticut’s reneed dnamism. Jos jumped  nearl 3,500 in thelatest quarter, maring one of the est outings for the recoer to date, and sug-gesting the state’s recentl derailed recoer might again e ac on trac.
Construction jobs were up smartly—1,400 for the quarter. Brisk activity innonresidential building (e.g., commercial buildings, schools) and nonbuilding construction (i.e., infrastructure) helped fuel the rise. Recent advances in hous-ing permit activity should further prop up the residential end of the market andprovide continued support for industry jobs in coming months.Leisure and hospitality also contributed to the quarter’s strength. The restau-rant and lodging industry beefed up staffing by 3,000 on top of a similar additionin 2012-Q4. Unfortunately, the casinos didn’t benefit from the heightened socialactivity. Local government jobs in Norwich-New London, where the gaming jobsare tallied, dropped another 350—a typical attrition rate of late and a big reasonrecovery has eluded this major labor market area.In a sign that renewed state job growth may have staying power, professionaland business service jobs advanced by 2,100, thanks to a big jump in administra-tive, support and waste services, a category that includes employment services.In recent quarters temporary help, a leading indicator of overall job growth, hasshown a stronger and more consistent pattern of expansion than has total employ-ment. There’s also little evidence that employers are substituting temp workers forpermanent hires (graphs). With luck, the gains will continue (page 14).Sustained job growth would do much to restore the state’s housing market, which seems to be lagging the U.S. in its recovery. Home prices are still sliding according to the constant quality home price index at UConn’s Real Estate Center.But permits are up, as are housing sales. And though down a bit from last quarter,real estate conveyance tax receipts are at their highest level in five years.This quarter’s issue takes us to the intersection of crime and the classroom. Weexamine recent trends in violent and property crimes and consider the likely effectsof changing gun laws on gun deaths and industry employment. We also look atthe state’s constitutional mandate to provide a “substantially equal education” toits schoolchildren and ask what the added cost of meeting this legal requirement would mean to the typical household.
1015202530354020102005200019951990 150015501600165017001750000s000s Temp Jobs Total Jobs
1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5% Average Temp Jobs as % Total Jobs20102005200019951990
 Jobs with temporar emploment service irms are growing briskl, and leading the rebound inConnecticut’s broader econom (let). Temp jobs as a percent o total jobs are near their 20-ear average (right), suggesting emploers are not substituting temp workers or permanent hires.
 TEMP JOBS SIGNAL CONTINUED EXPANSION
 
Summer 2013
 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMY 
3
By DENNIS HEFFLEy 
The murder of 26 students and staffmemers at Sand Hoo ElementarSchool, shoced the nation and theorld, draing reneed attention tothe hot-utton issue of gun control.Connecticut legislators quicl enact-ed ne las that require acgroundchecs for gun purchases, an cer-tain tpes of eapons, and prohiitthe purchase or sale of high-capac-it magazines. Spurred  the polls,seeral other states hae adoptedsimilar measures, ut spending the NRA and other gun loists con-tinues to slo legislatie efforts.
There are other impediments to suchlaws, including the common percep-tion that we live in a more crime-filled world. Some regard this as a valid rea-son for not restricting, or even encour-aging, gun ownership, in the belief that crime will only be controlled by more guns in law-abiding hands. Butthe perceived increase in crime ratesis generally unfounded (http://www.utexas.edu/features/2008/crime/).Crime rates have declined sharply, andthis decline has occurred at the sametime that the percentage of familiesowning guns has fallen (
NY Times 
,3/9/13). But let’s examine these trendsone at a time.
LOwER CRIME RATES
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program compiles, analyzes,and publishes data on seven index crimes, including four types of vio-lent crime (murder, rape, robbery,aggravated assault) and three typesof property crime (burglary, larceny,vehicle theft). Yearly state-level data on the number of such crimes and theresulting crime rates—reported hereas crimes per 1,000 residents—areavailable for years 1960-2011. Thetwo graphs show the violent crimerate and the property crime rate forConnecticut and the U.S.Over the entire period, Connecticuthas experienced a significantly lowerrate of violent crime than the nationas a whole, averaging about 1.8 fewerviolent crimes per thousand persons.Both the country and the state saw dramatic increases in violent crimesduring the 1960s and 1970s. A brief respite in the early 1980s gave way to further increases, with the violentcrime rate peaking for Connecticutin 1990, at 5.54 per thousand, andat 7.58 per thousand for the U.S. in1991. Since then, violent crime rateshave fallen back to levels not seensince the 1970s: 3.86 for the U.S. and2.73 for Connecticut. Property crimerates reveal a similar pattern, peaking for the U.S. and the state in 1980,then again in the early 1990s, followedby major reductions to 1967 levels.These improvements are impressiveand tend to contradict casual claimsabout rampant or ever-rising crime,but they also need to be put into per-spective.
First 
, national or state-leveldata mask the enormous variation incrime rates across towns or neighbor-hoods. Our centerfold data, for exam-ple, show that recent crime rates perthousand for Connecticut’s 169 townsrange from zero to 13.51 for violentcrimes, and from 1.52 to 50.31 forproperty crimes. When it comes tocrime, location clearly matters, so thereduction in state-level crime rates may offer little solace if you live in a high-crime area.
Second 
, while U.S. crimerates generally have declined in recentdecades, we have miles to go in match-ing the crime-control record of othercountries. A 2002 study published by 
012345678CT Violent US Violent 
          2          0          1          0          2          0          0         5          2          0          0          0          1          9          9         5          1          9          9          0          1          9          8         5          1          9          8          0          1          9         7         5          1          9         7          0          1          9          6         5          1          9          6          0
SOURCE:
The Connecticut Economy 
, based on U.S. Department of Justice data (www.bjs.gov/ucrdata/).
102030405060CT Property US Property 
          2          0          1          0          2          0          0          5          2          0          0          0          1          9          9          5          1          9          9          0          1          9          8          5          1          9          8          0          1          9          7          5          1          9          7          0          1          9          6          5          1          9          6          0
SOURCE:
The Connecticut Economy 
, based on U.S. Department of Justice data (www.bjs.gov/ucrdata/).
Crimes per 1000Crimes per 1000
CRIME, PUBLIC SAFETy,AND EDUCATION
 VIOLENT CrIMES PEr 1000 PErSONS IN CT  AND THE US, 1960-2011PrOPErTY CrIMES PEr 1000 PErSONS IN CT AND THE US, 1960-2011
 
       G       r       A       P       H
1
G       r       A       P       H
2

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->