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THECLASHOFCIVILIZATIONSSamuelP.Huntington
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THENEXTPATTERNOFCONFLICTWorldpoliticsisenteringanewphase,andintellectualshavenothesitatedtoproliferatevisionsofwhatitwillbe--theendofhistory,thereturnoftraditionalrivalriesbetweennationstates,andthedeclineofthenationstatefromtheconflictingpullsoftribalismandglobalism,amongothers.Eachofthesevisionscatchesaspectsoftheemergingreality.Yettheyallmissacrucial,indeedacentral,aspectofwhatglobalpoliticsislikelytobeinthecomingyears.Itismyhypothesisthatthefundamentalsourceofconflictinthisnewworldwillnotbeprimarilyideologicalorprimarilyeconomic.Thegreatdivisionsamonghumankindandthedominatingsourceofconflictwillbecultural.Nationstateswillremainthemostpowerfulactorsinworldaffairs,buttheprincipalconflictsofglobalpoliticswilloccur betweennationsandgroupsofdifferentcivilizations.Theclashofcivilizationswilldominateglobalpolitics.Thefaultlinesbetweencivilizationswillbethebattlelinesofthefuture.Conflictbetweencivilizationswillbethelatestphaseintheevolutionofconflictinthemodernworld.ForacenturyandahalfaftertheemergenceofthemoderninternationalsystemwiththePeaceofWestphalia,theconflictsoftheWesternworldwerelargelyamongprinces--emperors,absolutemonarchsandconstitutionalmonarchsattemptingtoexpandtheirbureaucracies,theirarmies,theirmercantilisteconomicstrengthand,mostimportant,theterritorytheyruled.Intheprocesstheycreatednationstates,andbeginningwiththeFrenchRevolutiontheprincipallinesofconflictwerebetweennationsratherthanprinces.In1793,asR.R.Palmerputit,"Thewarsofkingswereover;thewarsofpeopleshadbegun."Thisnineteenth-centurypatternlasteduntiltheendof WorldWar1.Then,asaresultoftheRussianRevolutionandthereactionagainstit,theconflictofnationsyieldedtotheconflictofideologies,firstamongcommunism,fascism-Nazismandliberaldemocracy,andthenbetweencommunismandliberaldemocracy.DuringtheColdWar,thislatterconflictbecameembodiedinthestrugglebetweenthetwosuperpowers,neitherofwhichwasanationstateintheclassicalEuropeansenseandeachofwhichdefineditsidentityintermsofitsideology.Theseconflictsbetweenprinces,nationstatesandideologieswereprimarilyconflictswithinWesterncivilization,"Westerncivilwars,"asWilliamLindhaslabeledthem.ThiswasastrueoftheColdWarasitwasoftheworldwarsandtheearlierwarsoftheseventeenth,eighteenthandnineteenthcenturies.WiththeendoftheColdWar,internationalpoliticsmovesoutofitsWesternphase,anditscenter-piecebecomestheinteractionbetweentheWestandnon-Westerncivilizationsandamongnon-Westerncivilizations.Inthepoliticsofcivilizations,thepeoplesandgovernmentsofnon-WesterncivilizationsnolongerremaintheobjectsofhistoryastargetsofWesterncolonialismbut jointheWestasmoversandshapersofhistory.THENATUREOFCIVILIZATIONSDuringthecoldwartheworldwasdividedintotheFirst,SecondandThirdWorlds.Thosedivisionsarenolongerrelevant.Itisfarmoremeaningfulnowtogroupcountries
 
notintermsoftheirpoliticaloreconomicsystemsorintermsoftheirlevelofeconomicdevelopmentbutratherintermsoftheircultureandcivilization.Whatdowemeanwhenwetalkofacivilization?Acivilizationisaculturalentity.Villages,regions,ethnicgroups,nationalities,religiousgroups,allhavedistinctculturesatdifferentlevelsofculturalheterogeneity.ThecultureofavillageinsouthernItalymaybedifferentfromthatofavillageinnorthernItaly,butbothwillshareinacommonItalianculturethatdistinguishesthemfromGermanvillages.Europeancommunities,inturn,willshareculturalfeaturesthatdistinguishthemfromAraborChinesecommunities.Arabs,ChineseandWesterners,however,arenotpartofanybroaderculturalentity.Theyconstitutecivilizations.Acivilizationisthusthehighestculturalgroupingofpeopleandthebroadestlevelofculturalidentitypeoplehaveshortofthatwhichdistinguisheshumansfromotherspecies.Itisdefinedbothbycommonobjectiveelements,suchaslanguage,history,religion,customs,institutions,andbythesubjectiveself-identificationofpeople.Peoplehavelevelsofidentity:aresidentofRomemaydefinehimselfwithvaryingdegreesofintensityasaRoman,anItalian,aCatholic,aChristian,aEuropean,aWesterner.Thecivilizationtowhichhebelongsisthebroadestlevelofidentificationwithwhichheintenselyidentifies.Peoplecananddoredefinetheiridentitiesand,asaresult,thecompositionandboundariesofcivilizationschange.Civilizationsmayinvolvealargenumberofpeople,aswithChina("acivilizationpretendingtobeastate,"asLucianPyeputit),oraverysmallnumberofpeople,suchastheAnglophoneCaribbean.Acivilizationmayincludeseveralnationstates,asisthecasewithWestern,LatinAmericanandArabcivilizations,oronlyone,asisthecasewithJapanesecivilization.Civilizationsobviouslyblendandoverlap,andmayincludesubcivilizations.Westerncivilizationhastwomajorvariants,EuropeanandNorthAmerican,andIslamhasitsArab,TurkicandMalaysubdivisions.Civilizationsarenonethelessmeaningfulentities,andwhilethelinesbetweenthemareseldomsharp,theyarereal.Civilizationsaredynamic;theyriseandfall;theydivideandmerge.And,asanystudentofhistoryknows,civilizationsdisappearandareburiedinthesandsoftime.Westernerstendtothinkofnationstatesastheprincipalactorsinglobalaffairs.Theyhavebeenthat,however,foronlyafewcenturies.Thebroaderreachesofhumanhistoryhavebeenthehistoryofcivilizations.InAStudyofHistory,ArnoldToynbeeidentified21majorcivilizations;onlysixofthemexistinthecontemporaryworld.WHYCIVILIZATIONSWILLCLASHCivilizationidentitywillbeincreasinglyimportantinthefuture,andtheworldwillbeshapedinlargemeasurebytheinteractionsamongsevenoreightmajorcivilizations.TheseincludeWestern,Confucian,Japanese,Islamic,Hindu,Slavic-Orthodox,LatinAmericanandpossiblyAfricancivilization.Themostimportantconflictsofthefuturewilloccuralongtheculturalfaultlinesseparatingthesecivilizationsfromoneanother.Whywillthisbethecase?First,differencesamongcivilizationsarenotonlyreal;theyarebasic.Civilizationsaredifferentiatedfromeachotherbyhistory,language,culture,traditionand,mostimportant,religion.ThepeopleofdifferentcivilizationshavedifferentviewsontherelationsbetweenGodandman,theindividualandthegroup,thecitizenandthestate,parentsandchildren,husbandandwife,aswellasdifferingviewsoftherelativeimportanceof rightsandresponsibilities,libertyandauthority,equalityandhierarchy.Thesedifferencesaretheproductofcenturies.Theywillnotsoondisappear.Theyarefarmorefundamentalthandifferencesamongpoliticalideologiesandpoliticalregimes.Differencesdonotnecessarilymeanconflict,andconflictdoesnotnecessarily,mean
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violence.Overthecenturies,however,differencesamongcivilizationshavegeneratedthemostprolongedandthemostviolentconflicts.Second,theworldisbecomingasmallerplace.Theinteractionsbetweenpeoplesof differentcivilizationsareincreasing;theseincreasinginteractionsintensifycivilizationconsciousnessandawarenessofdifferencesbetweencivilizationsandcommonalitieswithincivilizations.NorthAfricanimmigrationtoFrancegenerateshostilityamongFrenchmenandatthesametimeincreasedreceptivitytoimmigrationby"good"EuropeanCatholicPoles.AmericansreactfarmorenegativelytoJapaneseinvestmentthantolargerinvestmentsfromCanadaandEuropeancountries.Similarly,asDonaldHorowitzhaspointedout,"AnIbomaybe...anOwerriIbooranOnitshaIboinwhatwastheEasternregionofNigeria.InLagos,heissimplyanIbo.InLondon,heisaNigerian.InNewYork,heisanAfrican."Theinteractionsamongpeoplesofdifferentcivilizationsenhancethecivilization-consciousnessofpeoplethat,inturn,invigoratesdifferencesandanimositiesstretchingorthoughttostretchbackdeepintohistory.Third,theprocessesofeconomicmodernizationandsocialchangethroughouttheworldareseparatingpeoplefromlongstandinglocalidentities.Theyalsoweakenthenationstateasasourceofidentity.Inmuchoftheworldreligionhasmovedintofillthisgap,oftenintheformofmovementsthatarelabeled"fundamentalist."SuchmovementsarefoundinWesternChristianity,Judaism,BuddhismandHinduism,aswellasinIslam.Inmostcountriesandmostreligionsthepeopleactiveinfundamentalistmovementsareyoung,college-educated,middle-classtechnicians,professionalsandbusinesspersons.The"unsecularizationoftheworld,"GeorgeWeigelhasremarked,"isoneof thedominantsocialfactsoflifeinthelatetwentiethcentury."Therevivalofreligion,"larevanchedeDieu,"asGillesKepellabeledit,providesabasisforidentityandcommitmentthattranscendsnationalboundariesandunitescivilizations.Fourth,thegrowthofcivilization-consciousnessisenhancedbythedualroleoftheWest.Ontheonehand,theWestisatapeakofpower.Atthesametime,however,andperhapsasaresult,areturntotherootsphenomenonisoccurringamongnon-Westerncivilizations.Increasinglyonehearsreferencestotrendstowardaturninginwardand"Asianization"inJapan,theendoftheNehrulegacyandthe"Hinduization"ofIndia,thefailureofWesternideasofsocialismandnationalismandhence"re-Islamization"oftheMiddleEast,andnowadebateoverWesternizationversusRussianizationinBorisYeltsin'scountry.AWestatthepeakofitspowerconfrontsnon-Weststhatincreasinglyhavethedesire,thewillandtheresourcestoshapetheworldinnon-Westernways.Inthepast,theelitesofnon-WesternsocietieswereusuallythepeoplewhoweremostinvolvedwiththeWest,hadbeeneducatedatOxford,theSorbonneorSandhurst,andhadabsorbedWesternattitudesandvalues.Atthesametime,thepopulaceinnon-Westerncountriesoftenremaineddeeplyimbuedwiththeindigenousculture.Now,however,theserelationshipsarebeingreversed.Ade-Westernizationandindigenizationofelitesisoccurringinmanynon-WesterncountriesatthesametimethatWestern,usuallyAmerican,cultures,stylesandhabitsbecomemorepopularamongthemassof thepeople.Fifth,culturalcharacteristicsanddifferencesarelessmutableandhencelesseasilycompromisedandresolvedthanpoliticalandeconomicones.IntheformerSovietUnion,communistscanbecomedemocrats,therichcanbecomepoorandthepoorrich,butRussianscannotbecomeEstoniansandAzeriscannotbecomeArmenians.Inclassandideologicalconflicts,thekeyquestionwas"Whichsideareyouon?"andpeoplecouldanddidchoosesidesandchangesides.Inconflictsbetweencivilizations,thequestionis"Whatareyou?"Thatisagiventhatcannotbechanged.Andasweknow,
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