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Glenn Butts / Kent Linton Page 1 4/17/2009
 
APresentation Paper 
TheTheJoint Confidence Level Paradox:Joint Confidence Level Paradox:--A History of DenialA History of Denial
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 PRESENTERS:Glenn Butts: CCC, MRICS, CGC, CMC, CFC  Kent Linton: EVMS & Cost Estimating -SAIC/Craig Technologies
20092009NASA Cost SymposiumNASA Cost Symposium
(Tuesday, April 28th)(Tuesday, April 28th)
 
APresentation Paper 
TheTheJoint Confidence Level Paradox:Joint Confidence Level Paradox:--A History of DenialA History of Denial
--
 PRESENTERS:Glenn Butts: CCC, MRICS, CGC, CMC, CFC  Kent Linton: EVMS & Cost Estimating -SAIC/Craig Technologies
20092009NASA Cost SymposiumNASA Cost Symposium
(Tuesday, April 28th)(Tuesday, April 28th)
 
 
NASA's Joint Confidence Level Paradox:A History of Denial
NASA 2009 Cost Estimating Symposium
Introducing the Joint Confidence Level -Probabilistic Calculator (JCL-PC)
(The authors provide Historical Evaluation of Cost and Schedule Estimating Performance During NASA's Tenure as an Agency - Following which they introduce an optimum Hybrid model for more accurately calculatingCost and Schedule estimates in NASA'sComplex systems engineering environment.)
Glenn Butts / Kent Linton Page 2 4/17/2009
 
NASA's Joint Confidence Level Paradox - A History of Denial 2009 Cost Estimating Symposium 
 
Page 3 4/17/2009
The authors have endeavored to make objective determinations in selectinghistorical information that seemed most appropriate toward achieving a fair andequitable treatment of the subject matter presented herein. Although some data isin conflict with others, every effort has been made to validate content integrity byciting sources within footnotes and carefully inputting the referenced data, thuspreserving original accuracy, correctness, value, sufficiency, and completeness of the information. While no error was knowingly permitted to remain in thispresentation, the authors shall have no liability to any customer or other using partyfor any loss, expense, or damages (direct or indirect) including consequential,incidental, special, or punitive damages, lost profits or lost revenue arising out of orcaused by any inadvertent error or omission in connection with the informationcontained herein.
This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protectionin the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed inits entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this workmay contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyrightholder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately.
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