TIAD Project Solid State Drives+Saahil Goel

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk
Technology, Innovation, Adoption,

Diffusion – Final Project
By Saahil Goel
Solid State Hard

Disk Technology
TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 1

By Saahil Goel
Contents
Management Summary............................................................................................................. ...3

Introduction.................................................................................................................... ..............4
History......................................................................................................................... .............4
Technology............................................................................................................... ................4
Cost Vs. Performance....................................................................................... .......................5
Value Proposition of SSD...................................................................................................... .......6
For the individual consumer…........................................................................................ ..........6
For the business user…................................................................................... ........................7
For the enterprise…..................................................................................... ............................8
Performance....................................................................................... ..................9
Power................................................................................ .................................10
Adoption Dynamics.............................................................................................. ......................11
Notebook Users............................................................................................................ ..........11
Enterprise Users................................................................................................................... ..13
Obstacles to adoption........................................................................................................ .....15
Conclusion................................................................................................ .............................15
Market Share Dynamics........................................................................................................ .....16
Effect of SSD on current incumbents.................................................................................. ....17
Disruptive or Sustaining?....................................................................................................... .17
Competitors & Complementors................................................................. .............................19
Next generation prediction...................................................................................... ...................20
Conclusion.................................................................................................................. ...............21
References..................................................................................................... ...........................29

By Saahil Goel
Solid State Hard Disk Technology
Management Summary
Solid-state disks (SSDs) utilize “flash-based” NAND memory arranged in

several arrays to form a usable hard disk. The technology has been around
for almost four decades but has only recently become viable for application
as hard disks due to a reduction in cost and drastic improvements in
performance. The underlying architecture that leads to benefits of SSDs is
the lack of any moving parts - leading to lower power consumption, lesser
heat generation and a much faster (up to 10 times) read access response as
compared to traditional hard drives. The absence of any platter media also
leads to a much more robust and durable hard disk.
SSDs are currently bundled with handheld devices such as MP3 players,
SmartPhones, digital cameras and global positioning systems. Since these
devices are shock-prone and battery conscious, SSDs are a perfect
alternative as compared to traditional hard drives. These products find
appeal with the individual consumer and contain relatively small capacity
disks, making them economically viable. It is the business traveler’s
consumer segment that benefits more from the use of SSDs in their
notebooks. Since performance is valued more by business travelers over
cost, SSDs are able to provide these users with robust and high-performance
notebooks.
The segment that stands to benefit (and has benefited) the most from this
technology, is the enterprise consumer. Even minor cost savings arising from
lower power, cooling and space requirements can mean significant savings
for an enterprise making SSD a very attractive technology for them.
Traditional hard drives cannot match the input/output requirements imposed
on them by CPU’s because of which IT shops use only 10% to 20% of a hard
drive’s actual capacity to delivery maximum throughout. However, since
SSDs offer a read performance at least 5 times greater, as compared to hard
drives, this problem is solved. Not only do enterprises save from the indirect
effects of using this technology, they need to spend only one-fifth the capital
that they would have previously spent – leading to a lower total cost of
ownership. Further, with rapidly increasing performance that this technology
offers and the ever-declining prices, the solid-state disk is a must-have for
every enterprise today.
This technology would be considered a ‘disruptive technology’ as per Clayton

Christen’s theory on “The Innovator’s Dilemma”. SSD’s began by serving the
military in the early 70’s, an extremely niche market. After that, it was
available as flash drive technology. Later it was adopted by enterprises as

By Saahil Goel
application accelerator technology – up until this point where it is actually

well on its way to replace the traditional hard drive. All this time traditional
hard drive manufactures concentrated their efforts on improving the existing
technology and completely ignored the “threat” posed by SSDs. Now these
dinosaurs face extinction as the solid-state drive comet is ready to hit them
by surprise.
Introduction
History
Solid State Memory technology has been around for over three decades,
however the application of this technology had never been as storage media
until recently. In the 70s and 80s, Random Access Memory (RAM) “Disks”
where popular as boot media1. Other applications that did involve use of
solid-state technology for storage were for specialized industrial use only. For
example, solid-state hard-drives were used in the late seventies to
accelerate field seismic data acquisition for oil companies. The cost of a
gigabyte of RAM chips then was around $1 million2. By the turn of the
century, solid-state drive technology had improved in performance to an
extent that it became viable for consumer use as “flash drives” or portable
Universal Serial Bus (USB) drives. These USB-drives served the same
purpose as floppy drives or re-writeable CD’s – temporary storage of small
amounts of data for physical transportation or for back up. However, as
prices for increased capacities of flash drives came down, other applications
became more commonplace for this technology as well. As early as 2004,
companies such as BiTMICRO were experimenting with use of SSD as flash
solid-state hard disk. In 2005, Samsung, the Korean electronics giant,
entered the market with 1.8” and 2.5” solid-state disk drives. In 2006,
NextCom became the first manufacturer to sell notebooks with solid-state
hard drives instead of the older mechanical ones. Since 2006 up until now,
the predictable trend with technology, i.e. increase in performance and
decrease in price, has been followed leading to higher adoption of this
technology among end-consumers.
Technology
The term “solid-state” refers to electronic circuitry built entirely out of semi-
conductors originally used to define products such as the transistor radio
that used electronic parts rather than mechanical vacuum tubes3. Solid-state
hard drives or solid-state disks (SSD) are storage devices with no moving
parts. SSDs consist of an array of semi-conductor memory, organized as disk

By Saahil Goel
drives that are driven by integrated circuits (ICs)4 (See figure 1). These disks
retain information (like “flash drives”) even when there is no power. SSDs are
designed to look like traditional hard disks with the standard dimension of a
1.8, 2.5 or 3.5-inch hard drive. They utilize the ATA or SATA drive interfaces
to ensure compatibility with all electronic devices they may be potential
components of, in the future.
Since there are no moving parts to a SSD, there are several advantages over
the traditional hard drive. There is no motor to spin magnetic platters and
drive heads, as in the existing drive, leading to the single most useful
advantage of lower seek time, or latency. Since information is stored on flash
memory chips, it is instantly accessible. The SSD also uses less power,
makes virtually no noise and is more reliable than its traditional counterpart.
These advantages have made these disks favorable for portable computing
requirements and for applications that require instant access to data. In
addition, since SSDs do not have any moving parts they are able to
withstand conditions that are relatively more adverse. While a simple jerk
can damage a traditional hard drive, SSDs have a much higher tolerance for
jerks and other kinds of impact. The need for higher input/output
performance has been driving the need for rapid development of SSD’s. High
performance computers and other enterprise applications (ex: SAN) that
require data to be delivered in near real-time speed are the early adopters of
this technology5.
Another variant of the SSD is the “Hybrid Drive” which utilizes a small
amount of “cache” memory, which is an SSD chip and the rest of the storage
utilizes the traditional mechanical technology6. By storing boot processes on
the hybrid drive, boot up times for personal computers can be significantly
improved. By retaining the traditional structure of the hard drive and trying
to provide benefits of the solid state drive along with that, makes this
product a potential superstar when it comes to end-consumer adoption.
Cost Vs. Performance

Some key manufacturers such as Intel and Toshiba are aiming to lower the
price of SSDs by moving from single-level-cell (SLC) to multi-level-cell (MLC)
technology7. SLC-based SSD’s are able to store only one bit of data per
memory cell, thereby providing higher performance. On the other hand, MLC-
based SSD’s are able to store four or more bits per cell, thereby providing
more storage capacity per square inch – i.e. higher capacity for the same

By Saahil Goel
cost. However, the downside of this is lower performance. MLC’s are usually
twice as slow as SLC’s at present.
Value Proposition of SSD

Solid-state drives offer value for mainly two segments of consumers.
Corporate enterprises or specialized businesses that require quicker access
to data, and notebook users that prefer lighter, faster and more technically
advanced mobile computing. For the individual consumer, SSDs also hold
value by providing primary storage for mobile handheld devices such as MP3
players, cell phones and Global Positioning System devices.
For the individual consumer…

Individual customers stand to gain from the use of SSDs in notebooks,
tablets and other portable computing devices for the benefits of size,
reliability, durability, power consumption and speed mentioned above.
However, another area where SSDs have found a ready market is handheld
devices such as mobile phones, MP3 players, GPSs and digital cameras. In
2007, Intel introduced an Ultra-Small Solid-State Drive that is smaller than a
penny in size and weighs less than a drop of water8. These disks range
between 2 GB and 16GB storage capacity and are being used for storing
mobile operating systems, applications, file data, music and photos. Devices
such as the iPhone already utilize large (8GB to 16GB) flash-based SSDs for
storing their operating system, applications, music and other data. Since
Smartphones are geared towards increasing storage capacities, the SSD
market will grow rapidly for handheld devices, in effect lowering the cost and
increasing the density of storage. According to Gregory Wong, president of
Forward Insights, a consulting and market research firm "Smartphones are
increasing storage capacities taking the lead from the iPhone, and the iPhone
itself will likely see a 32GB product rolled out soon”9.
Handheld devices have the tendency to be exposed to varying temperature

levels, are shock, vibration & drop prone, and require ultra fast access to
data to be efficient. SSDs can withstand harsh environments (operating
temperatures of 0 deg. C to 70 deg. C), and can resist high degrees of impact
and therefore are the preferred storage medium for handheld devices10.
Finally, since power is very precious for handheld devices, SSD is clearly a

By Saahil Goel
winner for the handheld market. In fact, some claim that its dominance and
demand in the handheld market will bring the prices down overall and make
it a viable alternative for use with notebook computers.
The only disadvantage for the individual consumer is the cost associated
with large SSD hard drives in notebooks. The cost per GB for SSD drives is
anywhere between 10 to 20 times that of traditional hard drives11. However,
handheld devices have smaller hard drives and the performance benefits can
outweigh the costs. Further, as more development goes into the technology
and adoption increases, the prices are bound to come down (Please see
figure 8 for the comparison between SSD and HDD with respect to $/GB).
For the business user…

This product holds considerable value for the business user who values high-
end technology, faster notebook performance, longer battery life, reliability,
durability but is not afraid to pay a price differential. “Road Warriors”,
business people that are constantly on the move, and corporate executives
may greatly benefit from the increased battery life, better operating system
& application performance and higher durability offered by the solid-state
hard drive. Solid state drives correct all issues that arose with the use of
older mechanical hard drives – for example, excessive heat generation,
damage due to dropping the drive, slower access times, required spin-up
time12. Since flash based memory drives do not require any spin-up time they
greatly help reduce battery consumption that arises from accessing data on
the hard-drive, making them perfect candidates for mobile computing.
Spinning head drives drain power about five times as much as SSDs (Note:
hard drive power consumption ranges between 5 to 15% of the total battery
drainage of a laptop)13 (See figure 2 for a comparative chart of battery
usage by various components of a notebook computer).
Due to lack of moving parts, solid-state drives generate less heat – which
means that notebook cooling-fans have to work less and there is virtually no
noise originating from these drives. SSDs are electronic in nature and not
mechanical which allows them to be incredibly thin and small, thereby
reducing the “board real estate” for electronic devices such as laptops and/or
MP3 players. Since there is no platter media to harm, the SSD can withstand
extremes of temperature and can tolerate much greater impact than the
traditional mechanical hard drive can. While traditional hard drives can take

By Saahil Goel
about 50g of shock when in use, SSDs can take about 1500g. This makes
them a lot more robust and durable.
The only disadvantages of SSD for business users at this time might be the
shorter life spans and slower “write-times” as compared to traditional hard
drives. A study found that the write speeds on the MacBook Air (which uses a
64 GB SSD) were less than half as fast as 4200-RPM disk14. Partially, the
reason for this slowness has to do with the way current operating systems
are designed. Current operating systems are not designed to optimize disk
usage based on write access alone – instead, they are designed to utilize
equal read and write performance offered by standard mechanical hard
drives. In the future, newer operating systems may be able to fix this
problem. Also, faster write speeds will be achieved in the SSD arena as more
prominent research firms enter the market and more development takes
place.
For the enterprise…

For corporate enterprises, the possibilities with SSD are significantly more
than those available to individuals. Until a few years back, using SSDs at the
enterprise level would not have made economic sense. However, recent
improvements in technology have made SSDs more viable than traditional
hard drives in the enterprise storage market. “The technology has become
economical enough to favorably compare to traditional disk drives—at least
in a price-performance context. In addition, many seemingly
insurmountable shortcomings have been resolved.”15
At the enterprise level, scale and volume are important words and the
benefits offered by SSDs are multiplied. To begin with, the value that
enterprises can (and are) drive from SSDs are those of faster response times.
Since SSDs have a faster read response time, compared to traditional HDDs,
they are apt for enterprise/server-based environments where data needs to
be served to users as quickly as possible. There are also other efficiencies
such as lower data-center floor space, lower cooling requirements and higher
data reliability. “The performance benefits of flash SSDs over traditional hard
drives remain very much undisputed, and the almost nonexistent access
time seems to turn flash SSD into perfect replacements for enterprise class
hard drives.”16

By Saahil Goel
Up until now, the traditional hard drive has been the bottleneck affecting
data delivery speeds in an enterprise setting. No matter how great the
improvements in CPU processing capacities were, the critical bottleneck has
been the mechanical hard drive17. In light of this fact, it is very beneficial for
enterprises to adopt an SSD-based application storage infrastructure to boost
their user request response times.
Giant hardware manufacturers, such as Sun Microsystems, have already

announced their plans and strategies to employ SSDs in their servers for
storage media as opposed to the traditional HDD18. Not only will SSDs help
boost performance of Sun’s new servers, SSDs will be used to extend the life
of legacy server systems as well. Further, many disk array vendors such as
EMC and Hitachi Data Systems (HDS) are bundling their disk systems with
SSD.
Performance
As per Joseph Reger, CTO of Fujitsu Siemens Computers, in an enterprise

setting SSDs are shown to deliver 200 times more performance as compared
to regular HDDs19. Also with trends of rapid fall in prices, and exponential
improvements in capacity and density, the SSD technology holds much
promise for the enterprise world. SSDs offer read speeds that are much
faster than hard drives, but write speeds that are only considerably higher
(or even lower in some cases) there are very specific applications for SSD in
the enterprise. For example, SSDs are frequently used for database indexing
while a regular hard drive may be used for storing the actual data 20. Since
database indexes are written on a much lower frequency than the actual
data itself, a faster read access time can vastly improve the performance of
data delivery for applications. Other applications include Directory Services
that use the Lightweight Directory Access Protocol (LDAP) for user
authentication, which also requires lesser number of writes compared to the
number of read operations.
Enterprise applications that require random read operations such as online

transaction processing, stock transaction history, data warehouse queries
and data analytics applications all can benefit greatly from SSD-enabled
server systems due to the “read-intensive” nature of these applications21.
Specialized applications could range from fingerprint matching and highly
encrypted authentication systems for the military and government.

By Saahil Goel
Power
Another key value that SSDs bring to the enterprise is their low power
consumption. SSDs require about a fifth of the power required for a similar
sized hard drive22. With server storage running into terabytes, SSDs can
introduce significant cost savings for large enterprise data centers. In
addition to use of less direct power, since SSDs generate less heat, cooling
requirements for these hard drives are also lower. For example, a study
concluded that SSDs use 15% less power as compared a 7200-RPM hard
drive23 (Please see figure 3 for a comparative chart between power
consumption data for SSD and a traditional 7200-RPM hard drive). Power
savings occur in two ways – first, there is lower power consumption per drive
because there are no moving parts and second, fewer drives are required for
the same operational performance24. As a by-product, expensive data-center
floor space is also saved by up to 99% due to the small size of these disks
and the requirement of fewer disks for equivalent storage size as compared
to a platter hard drive25.
In conclusion, the Solid State Disk holds promise for each of three consumer
segments – individual, business and enterprise – analyzed above. The
following table explains the various aspects of the SSD that appeal to the
different user segments.
Consumer Performanc Power Reliability Durability Space Price

Segment e Savings Savings
Individual V. Important Not Important Important Important Very
Consumer Important Importa
nt
SSD X X X X
Feature
Business V. Important V. V. V. Not Not
User Important Important Important Important Importa
nt
SSD X X X X
Feature
Enterpris V. Important V. V. Not Very Not
e Data Important Important Important Important Importa
Center nt
SSD X X X X
Feature

By Saahil Goel
As per the above table as far as all consumer segments are concerned, SSDs
add maximum value through their superior performance and higher
reliability. SSDs are currently expensive and only the “Individual
Consumer” market segment is affected by this factor.
Adoption Dynamics
Since there are two distinct applications of SSDs – i.e. as storage for
notebooks and as storage space for servers and business applications –
adoption dynamics will also be different for the two segments.
Notebook Users
The segment of consumers that would adopt the SSD technology fairly early
will be the ‘innovators’ or the “geeks”. While the Road Warriors segment
will adopt this technology fairly early for economic benefits, “geeks” or
technology-loving individuals will take it upon themselves to pay the extra
premium for the technology for exploration and learning benefits. Since this
segment of users intends to dispose of their income towards new gadgets
and technology, they would be the first one to ride the wave of adopting
solid-state-disks. Their motivation is to experiment with new technology and
be the first ones to do so. They are the trend-setters for any new technology
in the marketplace.
The “Road Warrior” segment of notebook users, or business professionals

who are constantly on the move – including consultants, corporate
executives, sales professionals, etc. stand to benefit greatly from this
technology. This is the consumer segment that is meant to be the ‘early
adopters’ of this technology. As described in an earlier part of this paper,
these professionals use “power notebooks” that weigh less, consume less
power and are more durable. A hard drive, that radically boosts performance,
weighs tremendously less, is more durable and reliable and is noiseless,
would be an obvious choice for any of these consumers26. SSDs offer speeds
up to the equivalent of 40,000 rpm as compared to a traditional hard drive
top speed of 7,200 rpm. Therefore, business professionals that use power
notebooks would be one of the early adopters of notebooks. The fact that
SSDs are modular in nature and can be plugged directly into an existing
laptop, is luring manufacturers towards bundling these drives and marketing

By Saahil Goel
even more rugged, powerful and efficient machines to their customers. Even
though companies will have to bear slightly higher costs for this technology
at this point, the savings that arise from user satisfaction and increased
productivity actually decrease the TCO (total cost of ownership). Thus,
support from companies (those that employee road warriors) will also greatly
drive adoption of this technology by this consumer segment.
The ‘early majority’ of adopters will include light travelers and/or self-
employed consultants. These are users that do not want to be on the cutting
edge of new technology. While they do not want to take the risk of being
pioneers, they do however want to benefit from tested technology27. These
are the users will tip the market over to start mass production. Since these
users are likely to a little price sensitive they will wait till the prices are
somewhat similar to the traditional hard drive and will then make their
decision to purchase this new technology. This market segment does not
have a company paying for their technology needs, thereby increasing their
risk. Yet, they want to experience the tested new technology. Therefore, even
though they will adopt a little later, they will adopt in huge numbers.
The ‘late majority’ of adopters will include users such as students and
professors who do not want to even think of investing in a technology that
will not yield them the most benefit28. At best, they are followers at worst
they are laggards. This group of users are the quintessential “imitators” and
they follow suit once the majority has accepted and adopted the solid-state-
disk technology.
Since SSDs do not offer significant a performance-price factor for individual

notebook users, they are likely to be ‘laggards’ when it comes to adoption
of the solid-state disk drive. The “Average User” is usually price sensitive,
and weight & performance insensitive. Since she does not lug around her
computer from day to day, she need not concern herself with the
performance efficiency that is brought about by SSDs at a much higher
price29. However, these users are indirect early adopters since this same
segment also uses portable MP3 players, handheld cellular phones. However,
for the scope of discussion, this section concentrates on individual notebook
users only.
Based on the above discussion the curve for adoption of SSDs for notebook
users is presented in figure 430.

By Saahil Goel
As displayed in the above graph, for the “early majority” to adopt the SSD
technology there will need to be a significant momentum or the “band-
wagon” mentality to cross the chasm from the “early adopters”31. The drop in
price and increase in SSD performance may bring about this. The historical
trend so far has been in accordance with what the lifecycle model expects
and therefore it is expected that the “early majority” will soon adopt this
model.
Since its inception in 2007, SSD technology is only beginning to be adopted

by “early adopters”. Following this trend, the early majority should embrace
this technology around 2011 to 2012. According to David Reinsel, group vice
president for storage and semiconductors research at IDC, the SSD
technology will “probably not be available and adopted en masse until
2010.”32 According to the technology lifecycle adoption graph, the ‘late
majority’ should adopt SSDs around 7 to 8 years after the ‘early majority’ has
adopted it – i.e. around 2020 and laggards would follow thereby diminishing
new adoptions and replacing traditional hard drives completely from the
market (Please refer to figure 4 for adoption lifecycle estimates with year).
Enterprise Users
Since the value proposition of SSD for enterprise users is very different from
that of notebook users, the adoption cycle followed by enterprises will be
very different as well. One of the chief reasons for quick adoption of SSDs in
the enterprise market is the fact that the traditional hard drive acts as a
bottleneck in the enterprise technology infrastructure. While server
processors double their computing capacity every 18 to 24 months (as per
Moore’s Law), even high-end hard disk drives, with spin rates of 10,000 to
15,000 RPM cannot keep up with the Input/Output requests generated by a
server processor33. To combat this problem, system administrators typically
hold less data on each hard-drive, but host many hard-drives to ensure that
adequate throughput is achieved. With exponential increases in random
read times, a few SSDs can replace dozens of high-end disk drives.
Therefore, the use of “cost per MB” as a comparison parameter is inaccurate
in the enterprise setting. A more appropriate measure could be “total cost of
storage per application” or total cost of ownership. In addition to
performance, other factors such as lesser data center floor space, lower
power and cooling requirements make SSDs a good option for any enterprise.

By Saahil Goel
The “innovators” and “early adopters” in this case will be enterprises

who are heavily dependent on random read data. For example, banks that
allow their customers to interact with ATM machines can get improvements
in response time up to 30%. With increasing records to maintain in enterprise
databases, this would be a must-have improvement, especially at minimal
extra or even less cost34. Other enterprises who can greatly benefit from
higher I/O performance from storage devices can be “On-Demand”
AntiVirus/Email scanning35, marketing analytics companies, etc.
Even companies that are not wholly dependent on applications that require
faster random read times from storage devices can take advantage of SSDs.
Many companies have already moved to a “hybrid” model where they use
SSD for applications which can benefit, and stick to the traditional hard drive
system for other applications. These companies would be classified as “early
majority”. One of the factors that has helped crossing the chasm from early
adopters to early majority, is that equipment and server manufacturers have
started to bundle their products with SSDs. This instills confidence and trust
in risk averse organizations about the authenticity of the new technology and
promised savings. Besides, there are practically no down sides – not even
costs. As described earlier, some server manufacturing giants such as Sun
Microsystems have already taken the bold step. Also, with the current rate of
decline in SSD prices and exponential improvements it will not be long before
the early majority is saturated.
That being said, many risk averse, or “late majority” organizations will
delay implementation of SSDs in their environments until other successful
companies have pioneered and proved it to be successful. This seems to be
the current phase (2009) that the enterprise SSD market is in – i.e. moving
from early majority to late majority. As per Mary Shacklett, “This may be the
year when SSDs move from niche technology for a select few that need the
highest performance to one that gains a larger foothold in more data
centers.”36
The “laggards” in this case will be smaller enterprises that do not have
mission critical technology requirements or that do not rely on storage disk
performance. These users will slowly migrate one the market absolutely
forces them to do so by way of SSDs becoming the standard storage
mechanism.

By Saahil Goel
Based on the above discussion the curve for adoption of SSDs for enterprise
users is presented in figure 5.
Obstacles to adoption
Despite the various benefits that SSD offers for business users and for
enterprises, there are obstacles that must be overcome for broad adoption.
First and foremost is the requirement for better write endurance37. The
number of write cycles to any block of flash memory is limited – i.e. it
becomes unusable after a certain number of write operations. The problem is
exaggerated in applications of SSD which have a high write-to-read-ratio.
Even though for some applications SSDs may have longer life spans
compared to traditional hard drives, for others – such as in an enterprise
environment – they may be lower. For example, Intel has designed a SSD for
notebooks with a guaranteed 5-year lifespan (with estimated 100GB of
writing every day!)38. Manufacturers are also developing technology where
“hidden” spare memory is provided with the disk which are transparently
employed the moment a sector of the SSD goes dead.
Another important limitation to broad adoption is the absence of standards in

the SSD market. With absence of standards in the SSD market, there might
be compatibility issues and a lot of re-invention, hampering the growth of
SSDs in the enterprise market39. One of the factors hampering adoption is
the presence of multiple vendors in the market – each offering different
qualities of product, and each offering the same promises. Therefore, a bad
reputation of one vendor can hurt other vendors as well. Introduction of
standards will help make product claims more credible and testable.
Organizations such as Storage Networking Industry Association (SNIA) are
working towards common standards for SSD40. Many hard disk (Hitachi,
Western Digital & Seagate) and server manufacturers (Sun, EMC and IBM),
are also beginning to adopt SSD as their preferred choice and will spur
creation of industry standards and substantiated product characteristics.
Conclusion
The notebook user adoption lifecycle of SSDs will take longer and will have
smoother rises and falls. On the other hand, the enterprise user adoption
lifecycle will be shorter in duration and will have a very steep rise but a

By Saahil Goel
smoother fall (Please see figure 6 for a superimposed lifecycle adoption

graph for Notebook and Enterprise users of SSD technology over the next
two decades). Therefore, SSDs will penetrate the enterprise use market
much quicker as compared to the notebook user market. The momentum
gained from penetration into the enterprise market will bring down prices
and improve technology which will eventually help both the market
segments. There are some barriers to adoption, such as “write endurance”
and lack of standards. However, with the rapid pace of development in this
technology, these barriers should go away.
Please note that the above analysis related to predictions about adoption
may not be totally accurate. The technology adoption lifecycle curve makes
perfect sense when a technology is introduced and then no incremental
technological advancements take place. While in the case of SSDs, there are
several efforts underway to improve the quality of the product, the capacity
and the density (which would decrease the cost). Therefore, the entire
lifecycle might be shorter than the current period highlighted above. Since it
is difficult to predict the rate of technological advancement in the years to
come, it is difficult to predict how fast the ‘early majority’ and the ‘late
majority’ will adopt this technology. The above time estimations can be
assumed worst-case estimates.
Market Share Dynamics
The current U.S. market for SSDs – both for notebook users and for
enterprise users is $10B41. This is mainly because enterprises have readily
adopted SSDs for use as “server accelerators”. Where IT managers would
spend double the capital on more CPU’s, they can get the same or better
performance with utilizing SSDs. With Sun, IBM and EMC adopting SSDs as
the standard server “performance” storage, the future for SSDs looks very
bright.

By Saahil Goel
Effect of SSD on current incumbents
The top hard disk manufacturers up to 2007 were Seagate (34.6% MS),
Western Digital (20.5% MS) and Hitachi GST (17.2% MS)42. In the 1990s there
were about 60 HDD Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Today, there
are less than 50. Similarly, SSDs had about 10 OEMs in 1990 and today have
around 50. Even though a lot of the OEMs have become larger by
consolidation, there is definitely a trend of the rise of SSDs43 (Please see
figure 7).
After the introduction of SSD, all three have decided to enter the SSD market
to ensure they ride on top of the wave. Hitachi GST was the first one to
declare its entry into the SSD market in 2008 in partnership with Intel.
Hitachi plans to provide the market with a 1TB SSD by 2010. Hitachi’s EVP
John Fowler recognizes that the SSD market is still in infancy, but it is bound
to become the most exciting innovation in system and storage design44.
Seagate entered the market in 2008 and declared that it would produce
high capacity SSDs target only to the enterprise user for now. Seagate CEO
Bill Watkins also mentioned, “Seagate is thinking of going to SSDs in the long
term to replace hard drives.”45 Western Digital also followed suit by
entering the SSD market in 2009 by acquiring “SiliconSystems” for $65M46.
This gives Western Digital a lead over Seagate and Hitachi as they are ready
provide consumers with SSDs immediately47. However, all three ex-HDD
manufacturers need to be mindful of the strong competition they are going
to face from new entrants in this market as they may already have a lead.
Disruptive or Sustaining?
A sustaining innovation is one that improves a product or service that

creates a continuous market by allowing customers greater benefits 48. On the
other hand, a disruptive technology is one that creates a new or unexpected
market by applying a different structure or application of a technology.
Thus, while hard disk manufacturers were providing sustaining innovations

all through the 90s by increasing the density (and hence capacity) of storage
medium, flash based storage acted as a disruptive innovation by catering to

By Saahil Goel
only a small customer segment initially – handhelds, military application and

mobile phones were the only first customers for flash drives.
Even though SSDs might be currently worse off in some comparisons with
traditional hard drives (such as $/GB), there are other areas (jolt protection,
durability, low power consumption, no moving parts) which the traditional
hard drive just cannot match. The market segment is interested in the
aforementioned characteristics, will be the first one to replace HDDs with
SSDs. When flash memory was first available in the mid-nineties, it had very
small storage capacities and appealed only to handheld manufacturers. Over
the years, technological improvements have made it a potential storage
medium standard for the coming years49. Since the flash-drive technology
was not an improvement over the traditional hard drive, it attracted only a
small customer segment and offered lower margins and returns initially. The
big hard drive manufacturers did not invest in the technology and continued
to innovate around the traditional technology. In fact, up until recently,
manufacturers such as Western Digital were complacent to enter the market
– even after there have been several reports of the high adoption rates of
SSDs.
Hard drive manufacturers do not distinguish much between end consumers

(notebook/desktop users) and between enterprise customers. Their rate of
innovation for each market segment has been mostly equal. However, with
the introduction of flash-based storage, enterprise customers have found a
fringe benefit of exponentially better performance. Also, for some
applications (high random read speed), SSDs are the most suited technology
in the market currently. SSD is disruptive in nature in that it was able to
replace hard drive technology in the enterprise segment in only 2-3 years – a
segment that hard drives took three decades to penetrate. While in the past
enterprises relied on SSDs only for application acceleration, with the sharp
decline in prices, the corporate world is likely to save greatly on total cost of
ownership by use in other applications as well. This will boost adoption ever
further, thereby causing eventual replacement of hard drives.
SSD technology may not be disruptive for the notebook user right now due to
high costs, but rapid technology improvements will soon make that a reality.

By Saahil Goel
Competitors & Complementors
Even though there are as many as 50 SSD players in the market, primary
competitors are chip and semi-conductor manufacturers such as Intel,
SanDisk, Toshiba, Micron and Samsung50. There is bound to be consolidation
amongst many of these over the next few years as happened with traditional
HDDs in the 80s51.
The above-mentioned competitors have an obvious first-mover advantage in

the market as compared to the traditional hard drive manufacturers. In
addition, since many of them are well established semi-conductor companies
and possess the necessary marketing prowess and research & development
capabilities to succeed. While traditional hard drive manufacturers such as
Seagate and Western Digital have years of experience with mechanical hard
drives, Samsung, SanDisk and Toshiba have years of experience with semi-
conductors. With SSDs set to replace traditional hard drives in the
marketplace, semiconductor experts definitely have an upper hand. While
Samsung and SanDisk entered the market years ago, traditional hard drive
manufacturers are beginning to do that only now. Further, traditional hard
drive manufacturers are still complacent towards spending too many
resources on developing the new SSD technology, since they are still
generating revenue from their older technology. The effect is exacerbated by
the fact that traditional hard drive sales are also still growing.
SSD manufacturers, who already have the upper hand, are simply doing what
they must do to continue the upward trend in development and growth of
the SSD sector. For example, Samsung has been concentrating on both
enterprise and notebook user segment and recently launched a 100 GB
capacity hard drive with much better accuracy for enterprise users52. SanDisk
has recently launched its “G3” line of SSDs that provide performance
equivalent to that of a 40,000 RPM hard drive53. With the introduction of this
new range, SanDisk has also eliminated some of the fears associated with
the life of SSD products. SanDisk guarantees a life of approximately 100
years for its new SSD product.
So-called “complementors” also help SSD manufacturers greatly. Hardware

manufacturers such as Dell, IBM, Intel and EMC have realized the potential of

By Saahil Goel
SSD and have adopted this technology in their servers and their notebooks.
This move has brought a great amount of trust in the eyes of the consumer.
It has also helped hardware manufacturers to market their products better by
claiming the use of cutting-edge technology that helps its customers boost
performance – especially in the enterprise segment. Samsung has partnered
with Dell to target the “Road Warriors” market segment to sell its rugged line
of notebooks54.
Next generation prediction
Currently the underlying technology for solid-state disks is NAND or “Not

AND” which is a logical binary operation or gate for semi-conductor
operation. All flash based storage devices on the market are currently based
on the NAND architecture. However, another technology being researched on
since the 70s, called “Phase Change Memory”, has the potential to
address the shortcomings not only of traditional hard drives but also of NAND
based solid-state storage devices55. While the phase change memory (PCM)
will not replace SSDs altogether, it will replace the underlying architecture
once it is tested and commercially viable.
One of the key benefits that PCM has over NAND architecture is its superior
“write endurance” which NAND-based flash drives currently lack. In NAND,
there is a two-step write process: first, the storage area that will be used to
record data is erased and second, the data is actually written to it. Using
PCM, this process can be done in a single step.
The way PCM is being designed is that it may not replace NAND flash storage
at all. PCM could be used in addition to NAND flash storage to enhance its
performance. This would greatly benefit enterprises that would not have to
replace any of their existing flash-based storage hardware. “This
architectural approach would allow PCM to perform the quick reads and
writes and then push other writes into NANDs, which are better suited for
heavy and consolidated block writing.”56
PCM could have a lot of potential when used with network routers and
switches in the enterprise data center setting. Since there is a large amount
of log data that needs to be written and transferred, a storage medium that
can greatly speed up that process will improve the performance of network

By Saahil Goel
traffic as well. PCMs are likely to be available to enterprise users over the
next 7 to 10 years.
The market for PCM will be small initially – with only a small segment of
customers finding the technology attractive. As more development and
technological improvements take place mass adoption will take place. This is
very similar to what happened with SSDs. Therefore as per Clayton
Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma theory, PCM will behave as a sustaining
innovation by improving the already existing NAND based storage devices.
Conclusion
SSD based technology is disruptive in nature and has a huge potential to

improve the overall market for storage media. SSDs will add value to SSD
manufacturers, enterprises and to consumers and therefore create a win-win-
win situation. The only losers in the game will be the traditional hard drive
manufacturers. Its adoption is already very rapid in the enterprise market
and will soon gain enough momentum, by way of reduced prices and better
technology, to be adopted by the end consumer market as well. Semi-
conductor giants such as Samsung, SanDisk, Toshiba and Intel will dominate
the SSD market. The older incumbents such as Seagate and Western Digital
will most likely see a sharp decline in market share in the next several years.
Certain adoption-hampers still exist, such as high costs and low “write
endurance”, but the rate at which this technology is developing, these issues
will be resolved and will not become showstoppers. Already manufacturers
have claimed to solve the life-expectancy problem of the SSD. The SSD
manufacturer industry will see major consolidation over the next few years
with the initial vendors taking over the newer startups. This will also lead to
establishment of standards related to SSD. Solid-state disk technology is
here to stay.

By Saahil Goel
Figure 1
Arrangement of semiconductors and ICs in an array to form a SSD
Figure 2
Relative distribution of power drainage amongst various components of a
notebook computer
Graphic courtesy Aqeel Mahesri and Vibhore Vardhan

http://dvice.com/archives/2008/02/shift_are_solid.php

By Saahil Goel
Figure 3
Power savings using Intel’s SSD vs. using a standard 7200 RPM hard drive
http://www.gottabemobile.com/2008/08/21/intel-ssd-power-savings/

By Saahil Goel
Figure 4
Adoption lifecycle of SSDs amongst notebook users
Geeks R Light Students Average User

oad Traveler
Warr s
iors
Figure 5
Adoption lifecycle of SSDs amongst enterprise users

By Saahil Goel

By Saahil Goel
Figure 6
Adoption lifecycle of SSDs amongst notebook and enterprise users

By Saahil Goel
Figure 7
Change in the number of OEMs for HDDs and SSDs between 1990 and 2007
http://www.flashmemorysummit.com/English/Collaterals/Presentations/2008/20080813_ExecUpd_Januk
owicz.pdf

By Saahil Goel
Figure 8
$/GB for SSD and HDD over the years and projections into the next few years
http://www.flashmemorysummit.com/English/Collaterals/Presentations/2008/20080813_ExecUpd_Januk
owicz.pdf

By Saahil Goel
References

By Saahil Goel
1
“Solid-state drive” by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_drive
2
“Charting the 30 Year Rise of the Solid State Disk Market”
http://www.storagesearch.com/chartingtheriseofssds.html
3
“SSD - Solid State Drives” By Mark Kyrnin
http://compreviews.about.com/od/storage/a/SSD.htm
4
“SearchStorage.com Definitions: Solid State Disk”
http://searchstorage.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid5_gci1300939,00.html
5
“SearchStorage.com Definitions: Solid State Disk”
http://searchstorage.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid5_gci1300939,00.html
6
“What is a Hybrid Drive?” By WiseGeek
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-a-hybrid-hard-drive.htm
7
“Solid-state disk will go mainstream in 3, 2, 1...” By Mary Brandel
http://webwereld.nl/article/view/id/51843
8
“Intel Introduces Ultra-Small Solid-State Drive for Handheld Devices”
http://www.physorg.com/news117123465.html
9
“Is flash a bright spot in recession?” By Vivian Yeo
http://www.zdnetasia.com/news/hardware/0,39042972,62052996,00.htm
10
“Austin unveils compact solid state disk”
http://www.epn-online.com/page/new60639/austin-unveils-compact-solid-state-disk.html
11
“SSD flash drives enter the enterprise” By Ray Lucchesi
http://www.infostor.com/index/articles/display/8830570685/s-articles/s-infostor/s-disk-arrays/s-ssd-drives/s-
ssd_flash_drives_enter_the_enterprise.html
12
“Solid State Hard Drives” By Chad Chriswell
http://computer-drives-storage.suite101.com/article.cfm/solid_state_hard_drives
13
“SHIFT: Are solid-state drives really better than hard disks?”
14
“SHIFT: Are solid-state drives really better than hard disks?”
15
“SSD flash drives enter the enterprise” By Ray Lucchesi
16
“Will SSDs Take Over The Enterprise? : The Future of High-Performance Enterprise Storage Belongs to Flash”
By Patrick Schmid and Achim Roos
http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/enterprise-flash-ssd,1971.html
17
“Let's SSD, or the Solid State Disc tango” By Steven Ambrose
http://www.gadget.co.za/pebble.asp?relid=1331
18
“Sun adds SSDs to enterprise servers” By Kevin Komiega
http://www.infostor.com/index/articles/display/5120142112/s-articles/s-infostor/s-disk-arrays/s-ssd-drives/s-sun-
adds_ssds_to_enterprise.html
19
“SSD disruptive technology in the datacenter” By Chris Mellor
http://www.techworld.com/storage/features/index.cfm?featureid=3848
20
http://www.techworld.com/storage/features/index.cfm?featureid=3848&pn=2
21
“Solid state disk adoption to be swift in corporations” By Lucas Mearian
http://www.itworld.com/storage/65970/solid-state-disk-adoption-be-swift-corporations
22
http://www.techworld.com/storage/features/index.cfm?featureid=3848&pn=3
23
“Intel SSD Power Savings”
http://www.gottabemobile.com/2008/08/21/intel-ssd-power-savings/
24
“SSD Power Savings Render Significant Reduction to TCO”
http://www.stec-inc.com/downloads/whitepapers/Performance_Power_Advantages.pdf
25
“SSD Power Savings Render Significant Reduction to TCO”
http://www.stec-inc.com/downloads/whitepapers/Performance_Power_Advantages.pdf
26
“SSDs Gain a Foothold in Laptops, Notebooks” By Mary Shacklett
http://www.byteandswitch.com/document.asp?doc_id=171501&WT.svl=studies3_5
27
“Rogers model for the adoption and diffusion of innovations”
http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_rogers_innovation_adoption_curve.html
28
“Rogers model for the adoption and diffusion of innovations”
http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_rogers_innovation_adoption_curve.html
29
“Flash SSD market adoption model in the notebook market. Why it will happen long before
bit price parity or floor price kick in”
http://entertainmentstorage.org/articles/Flash%20SSD%20market%20adoption%20model%20in%20the%20note
book%20market%2011162005.pdf
30
“Technology Lifecycle SSD Adoption in Laptops”
http://www.driveyourlaptop.com/video/ssd-adoption-in-laptops
31
“Crossing the Chasm” By Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm
32
“IDC benchmarks SSDs” By Kevin Komiega
33
“SNW: Solid-state disk adoption to be swift in corporations” By Lucas Mearian
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9131219
34
“SNW: Solid-state disk adoption to be swift in corporations” By Lucas Mearian
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9131219
35
“Accelerating Enterprise Adoption of Solid-State Storage” By Mary Shacklett
http://www.byteandswitch.com/document.asp?doc_id=170073
36
“Accelerating Enterprise Adoption of Solid-State Storage” By Mary Shacklett
http://www.byteandswitch.com/document.asp?doc_id=170073
37
“Overcoming Barriers to Broad-Based SSD Adoption in the Enterprise” By Alex Nagvi
http://electronicdesign.com/Articles/Index.cfm?ArticleID=21032&pg=3
38
“Intel claims 5-year life for SSD” By William Maher
http://www.pcauthority.com.au/News/120219,intel-claims-5year-life-for-ssd.aspx
39
“Standards are Crucial to SSD Adoption” By Thomas Coughlin
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Standards-are-Crucial-to-SSD-Adoption-37495.html
40
“Standards are Crucial to SSD Adoption” By Thomas Coughlin
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Standards-are-Crucial-to-SSD-Adoption-37495.html
41
“Looking Ahead - Market Trends - Which Supports the SSD Market Size Model”
http://www.storagesearch.com/view40.html
42
“Top hard drive manufacturers in Q1 2007” By ZDNet Research
http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=12994
43
“Are SSDs Ready for the Mainstream?” by Jeff Janukowicz
http://www.flashmemorysummit.com/English/Collaterals/Presentations/2008/20080813_ExecUpd_Janukowicz.p
df
44
“Intel, Hitachi GST Partner on Solid-State Drives” By Mark Long
http://www.newsfactor.com/news/Intel-and-Hitachi-Partner-on-SSDs/story.xhtml?story_id=02100023T4F3
45
“Seagate preps first SSDs” By Rob Kerr
http://www.pcauthority.com.au/News/113009,seagate-preps-first-ssds.aspx
46
“Western Digital enters SSD market via $65m SiliconSystems acquisition” By Darren Murph
http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/30/western-digital-enters-ssd-market-via-65m-siliconsystems-acquis/
47
“Western Digital Buys SiliconSystems: Can’t Ignore SSDs”
http://jkontherun.com/2009/03/31/western-digital-buys-siliconsystems-cant-ignore-ssds/
48
“Disruptive technology” By Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology
49
“The Innovators Dilemma” By Kelvin Hartnall
http://www.hartnall.com/2009/02/the-innovators-dilemma/
50
“Will an ‘S’ in SSD soon stand for Seagate?” By Alex Zaharov-Reutt
http://www.itwire.com/content/view/21121/1103/
51
“How Many is Enough SSD Companies ?” By Thomas Coughlin
http://www.glgroup.com/News/How-Many-is-Enough-SSD-Companies---27491.html
52
“Samsung Enters Enterprise SSD Ring” By Arthur Cole
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/cm/blogs/cole/samsung-enters-enterprise-ssd-ring/?cs=12321
53
“CES 2009: New SanDisk SSD G3 is as fast as a 40,000rpm HDD” By Luigi Lugmayr
http://www.i4u.com/article22595.html
54
“Dell adding Samsung's encrypted SSDs to its arsenal” By Ross Miller
http://www.engadget.com/2009/04/15/dell-adding-samsungs-encrypted-ssds-to-its-arsenal/
55
“SSD 2.0: Phase-Change Memory Challenges NAND Flash” By Mary Shacklett
http://www.byteandswitch.com/document.asp?doc_id=170804&f_src=byteandswitch_FinancialContent
56
“SSD 2.0: Phase-Change Memory Challenges NAND Flash” By Mary Shacklett
http://www.byteandswitch.com/document.asp?doc_id=170804&f_src=byteandswitch_FinancialContent

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TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk

Technology, Innovation, Adoption,

Solid State Hard

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 1

Management Summary............................................................................................................. ...3

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 2

Solid State Hard Disk Technology

Solid-state disks (SSDs) utilize “flash-based” NAND memory arranged in

This technology would be considered a ‘disruptive technology’ as per Clayton

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 3

application accelerator technology – up until this point where it is actually

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 4

Cost Vs. Performance

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 5

Value Proposition of SSD

For the individual consumer…

Handheld devices have the tendency to be exposed to varying temperature

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 6

For the business user…

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 7

For the enterprise…

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 8

Giant hardware manufacturers, such as Sun Microsystems, have already

As per Joseph Reger, CTO of Fujitsu Siemens Computers, in an enterprise

Enterprise applications that require random read operations such as online

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 9

Consumer Performanc Power Reliability Durability Space Price

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 10

The “Road Warrior” segment of notebook users, or business professionals

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 11

Since SSDs do not offer significant a performance-price factor for individual

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 12

Since its inception in 2007, SSD technology is only beginning to be adopted

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 13

The “innovators” and “early adopters” in this case will be enterprises

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 14

Another important limitation to broad adoption is the absence of standards in

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 15

smoother fall (Please see figure 6 for a superimposed lifecycle adoption

Market Share Dynamics

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 16

Effect of SSD on current incumbents

A sustaining innovation is one that improves a product or service that

Thus, while hard disk manufacturers were providing sustaining innovations

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 17

only a small customer segment initially – handhelds, military application and

Hard drive manufacturers do not distinguish much between end consumers

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 18

Competitors & Complementors

The above-mentioned competitors have an obvious first-mover advantage in

So-called “complementors” also help SSD manufacturers greatly. Hardware

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 19

Next generation prediction

Currently the underlying technology for solid-state disks is NAND or “Not

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 20

SSD based technology is disruptive in nature and has a huge potential to

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 21

Graphic courtesy Aqeel Mahesri and Vibhore Vardhan

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 22

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 23

Geeks R Light Students Average User

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 24

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 25

TIAD Project: Solid State Hard Disk Page 26