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THE RISE OF CHINA IN ASIA:SECURITY IMPLICATIONSEdited byCarolyn W. PumphreyJanuary 2002

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The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and donotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheDepartmentof the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Thisreport is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.

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I would like to acknowledge my debt to the following persons: Dr.Peter Feaver, the Director of the Triangle Institute for StrategicStudies; Dr. Emerson Niou, the Director of Duke University’s Programin Asian Security Studies (PASS); and Dr. Douglas Lovelace, ColonelBernard Zipp, Lieutenant Colonel Lawrence Papini, and Dr. AndrewScobelloftheStrategicStudiesInstitute,U.S.ArmyWarCollege.Allof them gave me vital assistance at various stages of this project. I wouldalso like to thank Rye Barcott and Heather Messera (both of theUniversity of North Carolina-Chapel Hill) for their help at theconference. Above all, I would like to thank Drs. Joseph Caddell andLouisa Kilgroe of North Carolina State University who providedinvaluable critical input when it was most needed.

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Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should beforwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army WarCollege,122ForbesAve.,Carlisle,PA17013-5244.Copiesofthisreportmay be obtained from the Publications Office by calling commercial(717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or via the Internet atRita.Rummel@carlisle.army.mil

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Most 1993, 1994, and all later Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)monographs are available on the SSI Homepage for electronicdissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is: http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm

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The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mailnewslettertoupdatethenationalsecuritycommunityontheresearchof our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferencessponsoredbytheInstitute.Eachnewsletteralsoprovidesastrategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you areinterested in receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail atoutreach@carlisle.army.mil or by calling (717) 245-3133.ISBN 1-58487-082-6

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CONTENTS

Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Carolyn W. Pumphrey

I. GREAT POWER TRANSITIONS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192. China and America in the New World Polity . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Joseph Grieco

3. Hegemonic Prophesy and Modern Asia:Lessons for Dealing with the Rise of China . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Kurt Campbell

II. IS CHINA A SECURITY THREAT?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 634. Rising China: A Threat to Its Neighbors? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Michael R. Chambers

III. ASIAN GREAT POWERS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 935. Assessing India’s Response to the Rise of China:Fears and Misgivings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

Sumit Ganguly

6. Chinese Perceptions of India: Brief Comments . . . . . . . . . 105

Susan Shirk

7. Historical Ironies, Dividing Ideologiesand Accidental “Alliance”:Russian-Chinese Relations into the 21st Century . . . . . . . . 111

Yu Bin

8. Changing Japanese Views of China: A New GenerationMoves Toward Realism and Nationalism. . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Tsuneo Watanabe

IV. FLASH POINTS IN EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

. . . . . . . 1899. The U.S. Security Commitment to TaiwanShould Remain Ambiguous . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

Brett V. Benson Emerson M. S. Niou

10. North Korea on the Brink: Breakdown orBreakthrough? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

Andrew Scobell

11. The Rise of China: Implications for Security Flashpointsand Resource Politics in the South China Sea

. . . . . . . . .

229

David Rosenberg

12. The

Gestalt

of Sino-Indian Relationship . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

John W. Garver

V. SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28713. Bush and China: Thinking Strategicallyabout Upcoming Choices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289

David M. Lampton

About the Contributors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

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