Founded in 1921,the Council on Foreign Relations is a nonpartisan membership organi-zation,research center,and publisher.It is dedicated to increasing America’s understand-ing of the world and contributing ideas to U.S.foreign policy.The Council accomplishesthis mainly by promoting constructive discussions and by publishing
Foreign Affairs
,theleading journal on global issues.The Council is host to the widest possible range of views,but an advocate of none,though its research fellows and Independent Task Forces do takepolicy stands. THE COUNCIL TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY ISSUESAND HAS NO AFFILIATION WITH THE U.S.GOVERNMENT.ALL STATE-MENTS OF FACT AND EXPRESSIONS OF OPINION CONTAINED IN ALL ITSPUBLICATIONS ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHOR OR AUTHORS. This volume is the fifth in a series of Council on Foreign Relations Policy Initiatives (CPIs)designed to encourage debate among interested Americans on crucial foreign policy top-ics by presenting the issues and policy choices in terms easily understood by experts andnonexperts alike.The substance of the volume benefited from the comments of several ana-lysts and many reviewers,but responsibility for the final text remains with the project direc-tor and the authors.Other Council Policy Initiatives:
Humanitarian Intervention
(2000),Alton Frye,Project Director;
Future Visions for U.S.Defense Policy
(1998;revised,2000),John Hillen and Lawrence Korb,Project Directors;
Toward an International Criminal Court
(1999),Alton Frye,Project Director;
Future Visions for U.S. Trade Policy
(1998),Bruce Stokes,Project Director.Council on Foreign Relations Books,Task Force Reports,and CPIs are distributed by Brook-ings Institution Press (1-800-275-1447).For further information about the Council or thispaper,please write the Council on Foreign Relations,58 East 68th Street,New York,NY 10021,or call the Director of Communications at 212-434-9400.Visit our website at www.cfr.org.Copyright © 2002 by the Council on Foreign Relations®,Inc.All rights reserved.Printed in the United States of America. This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part,in any form (beyond that copyingpermitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S.Copyright Law and excerpts by reviewersfor the public press),without written permission from the publisher.For information,writethe Publications Office,Council on Foreign Relations,58 East 68th Street,New York,NY 10021.
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