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Conflict Studies Research Centre
Middle East Series 05/13
 
 
Main Current in Iranian Strategy Since 9/11
Dr Babak Ganji
Key Points
 There have been continuities and changes in Iranian foreign policysince 9/11. The main area of continuity has been the pursuit of detente with the EU and conservative Arab states. The main changesare new divisions between advocates of the pursuit of selectivebandwagoning with the US on Afghanistan and Iraq and advocates of asymmetric strategies aimed at driving the US out of the region.Both strategies cut across the factional divisions in Iran. The mostprominent advocates of selective bandwagoning include PresidentMohammad Khatami; the head of the Expediency Council AkbarHashemi-Rafsanjani and the secretary of the Supreme NationalSecurity Council Hasan Rowhani. Advocates of selectivebandwagoning appear to believe that by cooperating with the US on anumber of important regional issues they can stave off US pressure onIran's nuclear programme and continue the uranium enrichmentprocess. Advocates of asymmetric strategies seem to believe thatcooperation with terrorist organizations such as Al-Qa'idah, Hizballah,Islamic Jihad and Hamas will enable Iran to improve its geostrategicposition and galvanize support for a strategy of driving the US out of the region.At a minimum, the asymmetric strategy is aimed at ensnaring the USin regional conflicts. The premise seems to be that such conflicts willundermine the legitimacy of US power and lead to Islamist uprisingsagainst the US in key countries such as Iraq. Its most prominentadvocates are the C-in-C of the Islamic Revolution Corps Maj-GenYahya Rahim-Safavi and his deputy Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr. Thestrategy also had a spokesman in Hasan Abbasi, the head of theInstitute for Doctrinal Security Studies Without Frontiers. Abbasiexplicitly advocated attacking "Anglo-Saxon" targets. That both strategies were pursued, at times simultaneously, is asmuch an indication of the division over strategy in the Iranian stateapparatus as it is of Khamene'i's predominant influence on Iranianstrategy. The evidence suggests that Khamene'i decided to approve of the pursuit of détente alongside asymmetric strategies because Iran was not in a position to weaponize its nuclear programme.
 
 
Contents
Balancing the US 1Cartelized Polity & Strategic Myths 3Self Help Strategy 4Determinants of the Strategy of Detente 5Asymmetric Strategy After 9/11 7Pursuit of Selective Bandwagoning Strategy After 9/11 10Iraq & the Incoherence of Iranian Strategy 13Nuclear Programme & Asymmetric Strategy 17
Hasan Abbasi & The Asymmetric Strategy 18Nuclear Policy & State Strategies 18
Regional Dimension of Iranian Strategy 20Implications of Leadership Change for Balancing Strategy 21Conclusion 23
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