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Conflict Studies Research Centre
Middle East Series 05/22
 
Conservative Factionalism& Iranian Nuclear Strategy
Dr Babak Ganji
Key Points
* The main debate about nuclear strategy is taking place within the so-called conservative and radical camps inIran.* The anti-NPT current is gaining in strength and it hasbeen tacitly supported by the office of the supreme leader,Ayatollah Ali Khamene’i.* There is a dispute between advocates of a strategy of self-reliance and those who favour selective bandwagoning withthe US on Iraq and Afghanistan as a means of facilitatingIran’s pursuit of the nuclear option.* Domestic political pressure on Iran’s chief negotiatorHasan Rowhani, who is an advocate of selectivebandwagoning, led him to take a tougher stance on thenuclear issue in February and March 2005.* So far Iran has pursued both strategies simultaneously,partly because it has a long way to go before it canundertake large-scale weaponization of its nuclearprogramme. It is unlikely that both strategies can bepursued simultaneously in the long run.
 
Contents
Can Reforms Stymie Iran's Nuclear Programme? 2Iranian Leaders' Perceptions of Balancing & Bandwagoning 3Cross-Cutting Cleavages in the Iranian State Apparatus 3
Islamic Coalition Society 3Islamic Coalition Party & Nuclear Strategy 4 The Revolution Guards Corps & Islamic Coalition Party 5
Kaleidoscopic Factionalism & Foreign Policy 6Khamene'i Enunciates Hard-Line Policy 8
Emerging Rift in Ranks of Conservatives 8Policy Currents Within the Conservative Camp 9EU-Iran Talks 11
Iranian Threats to Respond to Attacks & Nuclear Opacity 11Rowhani Reverses Iran's Position 12Fear of Bandwagoning? 16Threats of Retaliation 18Continuing the Talks With the EU 19Prospects 22
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