Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Gilberts
Trading
is
Hard
Part
1
THE
DANGEROUS
GAME
Trading
is
a
dangerous
game
to
play.
Whether
you
dabble
in
equities,
CFDs,
futures,
currencies,
or
any
of
the
other
tradable
market,
the
pitfalls
are
always
just
a
trade
away.
This
opportunity
for
the
unexpected
is
part
of
the
charm
associated
with
trading
as
well
as
the
bane
of
its
existence.
For
as
long
as
the
markets
have
been
in
operation,
investors
have
searched
for
the
holy
grail
of
trading methodologies; something that could make them money regardless of the markets direction or attitude. Well, suffice it to say, it doesnt exist. If you are looking for the perfect trading system that gives you constant winners without taking any losing trades, then I hate to break it to you, but your search is futile. So should you just give up then? Should you throw your hands in the air and declare that the effort is fruitless? Quite the contrary. Despite our knowledge that perfection is impossible in trading, we still need to strive for it. We still need to go in to every new trade with the thought that this one is going to be a winner. It doesnt matter whether you have a string of losing trades before the next one; every new opportunity is the chance for a winner. Sometimes though, that type of attitude is the single most difficult thing to master in trading. Most cant do it; therefore, trading has a high rate of failure for those who dare to brave its choppy waters.
THE 5 STAGES OF TRADING GRIEF Throughout my career in the investing industry, I have run across many types of traders who were extremely nave to the dangers of trading. They would open an account with some money they saved up, and being avid watchers of CNBC and readers of Bloomberg, they felt they knew what to do. You could almost go through a checklist and mark off the different stages these traders went through as they learned the trials and tribulations of trading. Just like losing a loved one would send you down the path of the five stages of grief (Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance); traders would go through the same stages.
STAGE
ONE:
DENIAL
I
dont
need
any
help;
I
know
what
Im
doing.
STAGE
TWO:
ANGER
You
guys
are
manipulating
the
market
to
hit
my
stops!
Is
someone
watching
what
Im
doing?
Ok,
maybe
if
I
just
add
this
other
indicator
to
the
others
that
I
use,
Ill
have
the
perfect
system!
Ill
just
start
placing
trades
in
the
opposite
direction
of
what
I
think,
then
Id
be
sure
to
make
a
profitthis
sucks!
STAGE
FOUR:
ACCEPTANCE
Alright,
I
admit
I
have
no
clue
what
the
hell
Im
doing.
Please
help
me.
The
overwhelming
similarity
with
newer
traders
like
this
is
that
they
knew
nothing
of
managing
risk;
simply
picking
buys
or
sells
based
on
feel.
Needless
to
say,
they
learned
very
quickly
that
they
wouldnt
be
able
to
participate
for
long
trading
in
this
fashion.
While failing miserably as your first experience is demoralizing to say the least, it often times is a necessary humbling experience. Many of the greatest traders in the world could probably give you a similar experience when trading and is an important lesson that we are fallible. My own experience came from the other side of these feelings though. I was the guy who was the sounding board for many of these dejected traders as they stumbled their way through the process. It was demoralizing for me as well, as I saw investors with whom I had helped along and developed a relationship to flame out so quickly. Therefore, I felt it was necessary to try and stop the bleeding. I couldnt help those who had already suffered, but I could help future clientele.
would buy and I would sell, and if it were tails, we would do the opposite.
The
Experiment
Part
2
WHY
LOSING
ISNT
ALL
THAT
BAD
The
revelation
came
to
me
after
a
little
experiment.
A
colleague
and
I
had
a
game
where
we
would
try
to
forecast
the
direction
of
the
market
each
day.
The
running
joke
around
the
office
was
that
predicting
the
market
was
as
easy
as
flipping
a
coin,
so
we
decided
to
put
it
to
the
test.
In
the
morning,
we
flipped
a
coin;
if
it
was
heads,
he
The
Neal
Gilbert
Forecasting
Experiment
This
continued
for
a
month
without
providing
any
conclusive
evidence.
Needless
to
say,
it
wasnt
very
successful
with
just
the
coin
flipping,
so
we
decided
to
tweak
the
experiment.
Youve
reached
the
end
of
the
sample
of
Neal
Gilberts
Braving
The
Rapids.
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