European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Economic Forecast
Spring 2009
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 3/2009
CONTENTS
iii
Overview 1Chapter 1: Economic developments at the aggregated level 7
1. The global recession: How bad, how long? 92. Financial markets stabilised but sizeable vulnerabilities remain 173. EU faces a deep and widespread recession 234. Unemployment increases sharply 335. Disinflation continues ahead 366. Deficits and debt to rise strongly 407. Considerable uncertainty remains 46
Chapter 2: Member States 49
1. Belgium: Double-digit unemployment and triple-digit public debtin sight 502. Bulgaria: Vanishing budgetary surplus, external deficit remainslarge 523. The Czech Republic: Output falls sharply driven by collapse inexternal demand 544. Denmark: Strong increase in unemployment from record lows 565. Germany: Export dependency driving slump and conditioningrecovery 586. Estonia: Adjusting to face gloomier years 617. Ireland: Strong budgetary deterioration hampers adjustment 638. Greece: Persistent and large structural imbalances take their toll 659. Spain: Imbalances hamper recovery 6710. France: Relatively resilient private consumption, rapidlydeteriorating public finances 7011. Italy: Manufacturing hit hard by collapse in global demand 7312. Cyprus: Public finances deteriorating, large external deficit 7613. Latvia: Domestic demand and trade implode 7814. Lithuania: Deepening recession leads to wider fiscal deficits 8015. Luxembourg: This time, not spared by the general hardship 8216. Hungary: Domestic financial crisis magnifies recession 8417. Malta: Tourism badly hit but investment holds up 8618. The Netherlands: Suffering from fall in world trade 8819. Austria: Private consumption and fiscal support cushion thedownturn 9120. Poland: Mild recession knocking at the door 9321. Portugal: Protracted downturn 9622. Romania: Growth contracts sharply 9823. Slovenia: Sharp falls in exports and investment point tocompetitiveness challenges 10024. Slovakia: Global downturn weighs on exports 10225. Finland: Exports bear the brunt of the downturn 10426. Sweden: Unemployment rising, public finances deteriorating 10627. The United Kingdom: Deep recession poses severe challenge topublic finances 108
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