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DeepestSolarMinimuminNearlyaCentury:GoodbyeGlobalWarming
byGregoryMurphy&LaurenceHecht 
Editors,21stCenturyScience&Technology 
April9,2009(LPAC)–Acontinuedlowinsolaractivity,asmeasuredbytheappearanceofirregularitiesontheSun’ssurfaceknownassunspots,mayberesponsiblefortherecentphaseofcoolingexperiencedinmanypartsoftheNorthernHemisphere.Intheopinionofmanyspecialists,thedownturninsolaractivitylikelymarksthebeginningofaprolongedcoolingperiod.Theexpectedcoolingwillproducemanyhardshipsforahumanpopulationalreadystressedbyaprolongeddownturninglobalphysicaleconomicproductivecapability.ButthebrightsidemaybethatsuchbloatedwindbagsasAlGoreandhisleanercompanionJamesHansen,whohaveledHisRoyalConsortPrincePhilipsgenocidalglobalwarmingpromotion,willfinallybesilenced.ForstudentsoftheSun,thelengthofthesolarcycle,whichlastsanaverageof11yearsbutmaygolongerorshorter,hasproventhebesthistoricalindicatorofshort‐termclimate.Attheendsofthesesolarcycles,sunspotactivityfirstdeclines,andthenpicksupmarkedly,indicatingthebeginningofanewcycle.Thepreciserelationshipbetweenthesunspots,whicharethoughttobedeterminedbymagneticactivitywithintheSun,andtheenergyoutputoftheSunarenotknown.However,long‐termstudiesofthehistoricalrecordhaveshownthatwhentheminimainsunspotactivityextendbeyondtheaverage11years,significantdeclinesintemperaturesonEarthareexperienced.Regularrecordsofsunspotactivitygobacktothe17thCentury.Thecurrentsolarcycle,numbered23,beganin1996,andwasexpectedtoreachminimumandtransitiontosolarcycle24inJanuary2007.Itdidnot.Instead,aprolongedperiodofexcessivelylowsolaractivityhascontinuedthroughthismoment.Intheyear2008therewerenosunspotsobservedon266oftheyear’s366days(73%).“Tofindayear
 
withmoreblanksuns,youhavetogoallthewaybackto1913,”NASAreportedinapressreleaseonthesubject.Sincethebeginningofthecurrentyear,sunspotcountshavedroppedevenlower.AsofApril9,therewerenosunspotson89oftheyear’s99
days (90%).
DailySun,April9,2009:nosunspots(credit:SOHO/MDI)
 
Theapproximately11‐yearorSchwabecycle,wasdiscoveredinthemid1800sbyHeinrichSchwabe,aGermanastronomerandcollaboratorofAlexanderVonHumboldt.Schwabesawthatpeaksofsolaractivitywerealwaysfollowedbyvalleysofrelativecalm—Aclockworkpatternthathasheldtrueformorethan
 
200years.Theassociationbetweenlongersolarcyclesandcoolerclimatewasfirst
 
demonstratedin1991bytwoDanishresearchers,EgilFriisChristensen,theDirectoroftheDanishSpaceCenterandKnudLassen,asolarscientistwiththeDanishSpaceCenter,inapaperpublishedinScience.Otherresearchers,includingAustraliangeologistDavidArchibaldhaveconfirmedthisrelationship,andalsofoundthatforeveryone‐yearincreaseinsolarcyclelengththereisa0.5degreeCelsiusdeclineinsurfaceairtemperatureduringthefollowingcycle.Archibaldpointsoutthattheendofthecurrentsolarminimumassociatedwithsolarcycle23couldpossiblyoccurinJuly2009,butmaycontinueuntilJanuarynextyear,whichagreeswithNASA’slatestestimate.Thismeansthatsolarcycle23willbe13yearsinlength,andusingtherelationshipthatArchibaldfound,therewouldlikelybea1.0to1.5degreeCelsius(1.8to2.7degreeF)declineintemperatureoverthenextsolarcycle.Thispossibletemperaturedecreasemaynotsoundlikemuch,butitistwiceaslargeasthe0.6degreesCelsiusincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatureduringthe20thcentury.(Thatsmallaveragedwarmingtrendwasalreadyeliminatedbythecoolingthatoccurredinthedecadesince1998.)DuringthelastLittleIceAge,whichlastedfromthe14thtothe19thCenturies,aperiodofprolongedcoldknownastheDaltonMinimum(1796‐1824),beganwithasolarcyclethatlastedfor13.6years.Thatsolarcycle,numbered4,wasthenfollowedbytwoveryinactivesolarcycles.Duringthistimeperiodtherewerereportsofwide‐scalecropfailuresandfoodshortages.Ifsimilarconditionsoccurafterthispresentongoingdeepsolarminimum,andthereisalargedropintemperatureduetoaninactiveSun,theworldcouldseefurtherstressonthefoodsupply.Areasthathadbecomeavailableforgrowingfoodduringtherecentshortperiodofwarming,maybecometoocoldagaintogrowfoodoverthenexttwocycles.
The Russian Forecasts
 
ThecontinuedsolarinactivityisconsistentwithforecaststhathavebeencomingoutfromRussia’sPulkovoObservatoryinSt.Petersburg,overmorethanayear.OnJan.22,2008seniorscientistKhabibulloAbdusamatov,headoftheSpaceResearchLabatthePulkovoObservatory,saidinaninterviewwith
RIANovosti
that,"temperatures
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