Why the Czars Letter of 1890 Augured Ill for World Peace Disraeli and Gladstone reacted to the

dramatic victory of the German states over France in 1871 quite differently. Disraeli recognized that with this event the balance of power in Europe had radically changed. Gladstone saw in the German annexation of Alsace-Lorraine a dangerous and unsettling development. Both were right as subsequent history would show. The annexation set a tripwire that would bring down the peace of Europe and the world for the resentment it produced in minds of the French and the fear of retaliation it engendered in the minds of German leaders blocked any road to peace. Even so, Bismarck considered the prospect of combining the naval strength of Germany and France in order to promote Germany's colonial expansion in 1884. Bismarck was forced to adopt the policy of isolating France diplomatically, an endeavor that could not be sustained in the long run. For a time Bismarcks strategy enjoyed a measure of success. Germany and the Austrian Empire became allies in 1879. German traditional ties with Russia survived as long as Bismarck was the German chancellor but not for much longer. His problem lay in the rivalry and distrust that beset Austria-Russian relations. These sprang from their respective plans for the emerging Balkan nations. Despite Russias strong military advantage after the Ottoman-Russian war in 1878 the settlement reached at the Congress of Berlin under Bismarcks guiding influence did not grant Russia the advantageous deal it might have expected as its terms were biased in favor of Britain and Austria. The alliance of the imperial houses of Germany, Austria and Russia was suspended though a complete diplomatic break was avoided by the so-called Reinsurance treaty. It was the dismissal of Bismarck in 1890 that precipitated the severing of healthy diplomatic relations resulting in the lapse and non-renewal of the Reinsurance treaty in 1892. and inevitably the termination of Frances diplomatic isolation. A decisive meeting between Bismarck and Kaiser Wilhelm II shortly before Bismarck's resignation from the chancellorship augured ill for the future of Germanys links with Russia. Bismarck held in his hands a letter from the Czar Alexander III which was known to contain a negative comment on the Kaiser. Bismarck seemed to be reluctant to hand the letter to the Kaiser on account of its sensitive content and thus, most probably wittingly, provoked the Kaiser into snatching the letter from Bismarcks hands. Alexander III had written in French that the Kaiser was unruly and badly educated Two years later the Reinsurance agreement .was not renewed and Russia and France concluded a mutual defense pact in 1894. The countdown to the First World War started to tick away. Germany's main rival was France and Austrias was Russia and each pursued a separate agenda accordingly. It is ironic that Bismarck had once stated that the Balkans were not worth the shedding of one drop of Pomeranian (or implicitly German) blood and yet the fuse to the First World War was lit by the fateful assassination in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914 and the Kaisers "blank check" given to Austria on July 4 meant that the fuse would not be extinguished.

Historical questions are only of academic interest, unless they show some relevance to the contemporary world. The European Union rests on the accord between Germany and France despite occasional vicissitudes and disagreements that cloud Franco=German relations. Russia has retreated from its holdings in Eastern Europe with the result that areas formerly subject to Russian influence such as Bulgaria and Romania are now in the European Union. It seems the present state of affairs poses a complete reversal of the situation in Europe in Bismarcks day. History has not ended. Two words instill fear in Germany. One of them is "inflation" and the other is "Stalingrad." German politicians are wary about supporting some of more controversial interventionist policies of the West regarding Libya and now Syria. Russia has nurtured longstanding interests in the Middle East since the nineteenth century. One recalls the Crimean war of 1853 to 1856, which halted the expansion of Russian power in eastern Europe if only for about twenty years, the Eastern Question remains open.