What makes a top university top?

Ratings of universities, colleges, graduate schools, and professional schools have become very common, for both good and bad. If we accept the characterizations of magazines
like Business Week and U.S. News and World Report as having value, is it possible to characterize the properties of a school that determine its rating? School administrators would
be interested in this, of course, so that they could target efforts at improvement efficiently.
Prospective students would be interested also, as they could perhaps identify schools that
are better or worse than the magazine has decided.
The following data come from 2002 U.S. News and World Report Americas Best
Colleges. The data refer to the 249 national universitiesdoctoral in the United States
(universities that offer a full range of undergraduate majors, plus masters and Ph.D. degrees, and emphasize faculty research). For each university the following variables are
recorded:
(1) the SAT score at the 25th percentile for the Freshman class
(2) the SAT score at the 75th percentile for the Freshman class
(3) the percentage of the freshman class in top 10% of their high school class
(4) the acceptance rate (the percentage of applicants who are admitted to the university)
(5) the percentage of alumni who gave to the school
(6) the percentage of classes with 20 or fewer students
(7) the percentage of classes with 50 or more students
(8) the freshman retention rate (percentage of freshman entering in 19911994 who begin
their sophomore years)
(9) the graduation rate (within 6 years) of students entering 1986-1989
(10) the score of the institutions academic programs based on a survey of college presidents,
provosts, and deans of admission (on a scale from 1 to 5)
(11) the percentage of faculty who are fulltime
(12) whether or not the university was ranked Top 50, Tier 2, Tier 3, or Tier 4 by U.S.
News and World Report
Note that variables 14 refer to the quality of the entering class, while variables 511
c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

refer to the quality and attractiveness of student life at the university. We will analyze these
two groups of variables separately. Note that many schools use the ACT exam, rather than
the SAT exam, as an admissions requirement. This is mostly a geographic effect (schools
in western states being more likely to use the ACT), although it is interesting to note that
only 4 of the schools in the top 50 use the ACT. For these schools an equivalent SAT score
is given, based on equating the observed percentiles for the ACT to the corresponding SAT
score. Is it possible to build a model for the probability of being a top 50 school from these
variables?
First, here are the entering class quality data. It is worth knowing also that the first 50
observations are in the rank order given by U.S. News and World Report (so, for example,
NYU was ranked #32; note also that the eight Ivy League schools are all in the top 16).
It is not possible to build an ordinary (least squares) regression model with rank as the
target variable here, since specific ranks were not given for any schools not in the top 50.
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

SAT 1st quartile

Princeton University (NJ)
Harvard University (MA)
Yale University (CT)
California Institute of Technology
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology
Stanford University (CA)
University of Pennsylvania
Duke University (NC)
Columbia University (NY)
Dartmouth College (NH)
University of Chicago
Northwestern University (IL)
Rice University (TX)
Cornell University (NY)
Washington University in St. Louis
Brown University (RI)
Johns Hopkins University (MD)
Emory University (GA)
University of Notre Dame (IN)
University of California - Berkeley *
University of Virginia *
Vanderbilt University (TN)

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

1350
1410
1380
1450
1410
1360
1310
1300
1310
1330
1280
1290
1310
1270
1290
1290
1300
1300
1270
1200
1200
1220
2

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66

Carnegie Mellon University (PA)

Georgetown University (DC)
University of Michigan - Ann Arbor *
Univ. of California - Los Angeles *
Wake Forest University (NC)
Tufts University (MA)
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill *
College of William and Mary (VA)*
Univ. of California - San Diego *
New York University
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison *
Brandeis University (MA)
Univ. of Southern California
U. of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign *
University of Rochester (NY)
Boston College
Case Western Reserve Univ. (OH)
Lehigh University (PA)
Georgia Institute of Technology *
University of California - Davis *
University of California - Irvine *
Yeshiva University (NY)
University of Washington *
Pennsylvania State U. - University Park *
Tulane University (LA)
Pepperdine University (CA)
Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst. (NY)
Texas A&M Univ. - College Station *
Univ. of California - Santa Barbara *
University of Texas - Austin *
American University (DC)
Auburn University (AL)*
Baylor University (TX)
Boston University
Brigham Young Univ. - Provo (UT)
Catholic University of America (DC)
Clarkson University (NY)
Clark University (MA)
Clemson University (SC)*
Colorado State University *
Duquesne University (PA)
Florida State University *
Fordham University (NY)
George Washington University (DC)

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

1280
1280
1210
1170
1220
1240
1130
1230
1160
1250
1210
1220
1210
1170
1240
1220
1240
1183
1250
1060
1070
1130
1050
1080
1210
1150
1180
1070
1090
1090
1100
1050
1080
1210
1210
1060
1090
1070
1080
1090
1070
1060
1050
1150
3

67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110

Howard University (DC)

Illinois Institute of Technology
Indiana University - Bloomington *
Iowa State University *
Loyola University Chicago
Marquette University (WI)
MCP Hahnemann University (PA)
Miami University - Oxford (OH)*
Michigan State University *
Michigan Technological University *
North Carolina State U. - Raleigh *
Ohio State University - Columbus *
Ohio University *
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette (IN)*
Rutgers - Newark (NJ)*
Rutgers - New Brunswick (NJ)*
Seton Hall University (NJ)
Southern Methodist University (TX)
Stevens Institute of Technology (NJ)
St. Louis University
SUNY - Albany *
SUNY - Binghamton *
SUNY College Environmental Science and Forestry *
SUNY - Stony Brook *
SUNY - University at Buffalo *
Syracuse University (NY)
Texas Christian University
University of Alabama *
University of Arizona *
Univ. of California - Riverside *
Univ. of California - Santa Cruz *
University of Colorado - Boulder *
University of Connecticut *
University of Dayton (OH)
University of Delaware *
University of Denver
University of Florida *
University of Georgia *
University of Iowa *
University of Kansas *
University of Kentucky *
Univ. of Maryland - College Park *
Univ. of Massachusetts - Amherst *
University of Miami (FL)

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

830
1190
970
1050
1090
1130
*
1170
1050
1130
1080
1090
1050
1010
960
1070
950
1050
1200
1130
1040
1110
1040
1020
1010
1110
1050
1020
970
940
1030
1050
1040
1090
1040
1010
1100
1110
1090
1090
1090
1150
1010
1070
4

111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154

Univ. of Minnesota - Twin Cities *

Univ. of Missouri - Columbia *
University of Missouri - Rolla *
Univ. of Nebraska - Lincoln *
University of New Hampshire *
University of Oklahoma *
University of Oregon *
University of Pittsburgh *
University of San Diego
University of San Francisco
Univ. of South Carolina - Columbia *
University of St. Thomas (MN)
Univ. of Tennessee - Knoxville *
University of the Pacific (CA)
University of Tulsa (OK)
University of Utah *
University of Vermont *
Virginia Tech *
Washington State University *
Worcester Polytechnic Inst. (MA)
Adelphi University (NY)
Alabama A&M University *
Andrews University (MI)
Arizona State University *
Ball State University (IN)*
Bowling Green State University (OH)*
Clark Atlanta University
DePaul University (IL)
Drexel University (PA)
Florida Institute of Technology
George Mason University (VA)*
Hofstra University (NY)
Indiana Univ. of Pennsylvania *
Kansas State University *
Louisiana State U. - Baton Rouge *
Mississippi State University *
Montana State University - Bozeman *
New Jersey Inst. of Technology *
N.M. Inst. of Mining and Tech. *
New Mexico State University *
New School University (NY)
Northeastern University (MA)
Oklahoma State University *
Oregon State University *

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

1090
1170
1210
1050
1010
1090
1000
1060
1070
1020
1000
1090
1050
1010
1130
1050
1040
1080
940
1180
970
830
970
970
920
970
*
1050
1030
1050
970
1010
970
970
1050
970
1010
1030
1130
930
1090
1020
1050
960
5

155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198

Pace University (NY)

Polytechnic University (NY)
St. Johns University (NY)
Temple University (PA)*
Texas Tech University *
University of Alabama - Birmingham *
University of Alabama - Huntsville *
University of Alaska - Fairbanks *
University of Arkansas *
University of Cincinnati *
University of Hawaii - Manoa *
University of Idaho *
University of Illinois - Chicago *
University of La Verne (CA)
University of Maine - Orono *
U. of Maryland - Baltimore County *
University of Mississippi *
Univ. of Missouri - Kansas City *
University of Nevada - Reno *
University of New Mexico *
U. of North Carolina - Greensboro *
University of North Dakota *
University of Rhode Island *
Univ. of Southern Mississippi *
University of South Florida *
University of Texas - Dallas *
University of Wyoming *
Utah State University *
Virginia Commonwealth University *
Wayne State University (MI)*
Western Michigan University *
West Virginia University *
Widener University (PA)
Biola University (CA)
Central Michigan University *
Cleveland State University *
East Carolina University (NC)*
East Tennessee State University *
Florida Atlantic University *
Florida International University *
Georgia State University *
Idaho State University *
Illinois State University *
Indiana State University *

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

950
1150
890
920
970
970
1090
880
1090
970
980
1010
1050
870
970
1080
1010
1050
1010
970
930
1010
980
930
970
1060
1010
970
920
880
1010
1010
1040
1000
1010
830
940
970
950
1020
940
930
1010
840
6

199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242

Indiana U.-Purdue U. - Indianapolis *

Jackson State University (MS)*
Kent State University (OH)*
Louisiana Tech University *
Middle Tennessee State Univ. *
National-Louis University (IL)
North Dakota State University *
Northern Arizona University *
Northern Illinois University *
Nova Southeastern University (FL)
Oakland University (MI)*
Old Dominion University (VA)*
Portland State University (OR)*
San Diego State University *
South Carolina State University *
South Dakota State University *
Southern Illinois U. - Carbondale *
Tennessee State University *
Texas A&M University - Commerce *
Texas A&M Univ. - Kingsville *
Texas Southern University *
Texas Womans University *
Union Institute (OH)
United States International U. (CA)
University of Akron (OH)*
Univ. of Arkansas - Little Rock *
University of Bridgeport (CT)
University of Central Florida *
University of Colorado - Denver *
University of Hartford (CT)
University of Houston *
University of Louisiana - Lafayette *
University of Louisville (KY)*
Univ. of Massachusetts - Boston *
Univ. of Massachusetts - Lowell *
University of Memphis *
Univ. of Missouri - St. Louis *
University of Montana *
University of Nevada - Las Vegas *
University of New Orleans *
University of Northern Colorado *
University of North Texas *
University of South Alabama *
University of South Dakota *

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

840
780
930
970
970
720
1050
920
1010
930
930
910
890
940
760
970
1010
780
870
800
*
820
*
820
880
*
810
1050
970
950
920
930
970
920
970
970
1000
970
890
930
970
960
1010
970
7

243
244
245
246
247
248
249

University of Texas - Arlington *

University of Texas - El Paso *
University of Toledo (OH)*
Univ. of Wisconsin - Milwaukee *
Wichita State University (KS)*
Wilmington College (DE)
Wright State University (OH)*

Row

SAT 3rd quartile

Top 10%

Acceptance rate

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

1540
1580
1550
1580
1560
1560
1490
1500
1510
1520
1490
1470
1510
1460
1450
1490
1480
1460
1430
1450
1410
1400
1460
1450
1420
1400
1380
1410
1340
1410
1370
1420
1370

92
90
95
98
97
89
92
86
87
86
82
84
84
82
85
87
70
90
84
99
83
71
72
78
67
97
67
73
65
79
99
70
48

12
11
16
13
16
13
23
26
13
21
44
33
23
31
30
16
32
45
34
26
39
55
36
22
55
29
49
26
37
41
38
29
72

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

930
790
970
970
970
*
930

Tier
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
8

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

1420
1400
1370
1410
1390
1450
1365
1420
1290
1275
1330
1270
1290
1390
1350
1370
1290
1290
1310
1290
1250
1280
1370
1420
1270
1280
1290
1260
1250
1300
1260
1250
1320
1350
1410
1220
1300
1300
1330
*
1330
1250
1330
1290

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

61
80
53
53
68
71
52
60
95
95
*
47
44
55
69
59
53
95
47
28
24
38
57
56
28
40
29
37
24
54
57
27
45
21
53
21
25
29
34
*
38
24
31
37

48
34
64
50
32
71
46
57
63
57
79
78
48
73
36
73
66
47
62
72
85
84
49
64
84
83
70
64
78
84
54
63
49
56
65
82
91
80
84
69
69
69
94
65

Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
9

78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121

1330
1250
1240
1160
1290
1160
1270
1370
1330
1230
1310
1210
1240
1230
1300
1250
1250
1220
1200
1260
1260
1240
1330
1260
1220
1320
1300
1300
1330
1300
1350
1240
1280
1330
1370
1420
1300
1230
1330
1230
1270
1270
1220
1220

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

32
17
27
29
32
15
31
53
36
15
53
22
25
22
40
34
28
33
94
96
21
23
22
30
33
66
41
20
28
31
52
19
45
30
31
46
25
19
31
21
32
60
23
30

72
77
78
52
58
88
82
54
67
58
42
57
56
68
58
76
86
84
85
80
86
67
79
49
78
62
62
83
69
80
51
67
53
75
90
92
92
76
86
90
62
50
80
69

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
10

122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165

1300
1250
1230
1370
1330
1230
1270
1180
1360
1180
880
1210
1210
1140
1210
*
1250
1250
1260
1180
1180
1130
1250
1250
1300
1250
1230
1370
1170
1310
1230
1300
1200
1150
1300
1120
1140
1180
1210
1300
1340
1340
1210
1180

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

32
26
42
50
26
18
37
*
45
21
*
18
26
16
12
*
18
22
34
*
12
20
24
26
26
17
22
41
21
24
16
30
22
18
44
16
17
21
15
32
13
33
13
30

82
62
76
75
94
80
61
84
71
70
58
54
77
79
88
70
73
78
82
61
80
58
61
78
71
84
53
68
61
*
70
92
87
77
66
80
71
70
90
87
86
90
82
71

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
11

166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209

1250
1210
1070
1190
1280
1300
1340
1210
1210
1130
1210
1190
1130
1190
1280
1250
1210
1140
1170
1210
1210
1200
1250
1210
1090
1120
1170
1150
1180
1130
1170
1210
1045
1060
970
1130
1170
1170
1010
1250
1160
1210
1150
1170

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

19
25
*
21
34
37
38
*
20
13
17
17
35
22
32
23
*
15
*
16
21
26
38
18
7
13
11
*
43
10
12
10
9
7
*
10
36
14
*
10
25
10
27
*

83
60
74
81
65
82
71
90
69
74
59
75
52
58
49
97
98
76
78
85
94
75
82
82
86
74
79
72
67
59
69
76
83
80
46
92
93
79
98
78
81
65
74
78

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
12

210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249

1120
1150
1143
960
1210
1170
1010
1100
1030
*
1040
*
1240
1170
*
1100
1230
1210
1150
1150
1130
1210
1150
1160
1170
1240
1250
1140
1130
1170
1210
1170
1210
1160
1020
1210
1170
1210
*
1170

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

19
*
*
6
13
10
*
14
15
*
*
*
*
11
*
17
33
17
9
21
*
19
12
*
*
20
13
22
*
12
20
*
15
20
15
14
9
10
*
14

70
86
65
40
94
71
51
60
100
79
69
*
62
90
62
80
63
73
71
81
83
88
59
67
71
57
86
79
83
79
75
93
97
86
93
99
80
75
*
89

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

13

Just as was true in the twogroup situation, good way to get a feeling for the predictive
power of individual variables is to construct sidebyside boxplots. Here are the plots:

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

14

In order to make the pictures and output be in the correct order, the Tier number
variable has the coding of 4 for Top 50 schools, 3 for Tier 2, 2 for Tier 3, and 1 for Tier
c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

15

4. Thus, we see the expected patterns of increasing SAT percentiles with increasing rating
quality, increasing percentages of students in the top 10% of their high school classes (with
a noticeable jump for Top 50 schools), and decreasing acceptance rate.
Here is a nominal logistic regression fit on all four predicting variables:
Nominal Logistic Regression: Tier number versus SAT 1st quar,
SAT 3rd quar, ...
Response Information
Variable
Tier num

Value
4
3
2
1
Total

Count
51
76
49
44
220

(Reference Event)

220 cases were used

29 cases contained missing values
Logistic Regression Table
Predictor
Coef
Logit 1: (3/4)
Constant
22.42
SAT 1st
-0.01031
SAT 3rd
-0.00646
Top 10%
-0.08199
Acceptan
0.04780

SE Coef

Odds
Ratio

10.37
0.01638
0.01933
0.02303
0.02877

2.16
-0.63
-0.33
-3.56
1.66

0.031
0.529
0.738
0.000
0.097

0.99
0.99
0.92
1.05

0.96
0.96
0.88
0.99

1.02
1.03
0.96
1.11

Logit 2: (2/4)
Constant
43.70
SAT 1st
-0.02054
SAT 3rd
-0.01491
Top 10%
-0.12208
Acceptan
0.05507

11.80
0.01708
0.02002
0.03110
0.03366

3.70
-1.20
-0.74
-3.93
1.64

0.000
0.229
0.456
0.000
0.102

0.98
0.99
0.89
1.06

0.95
0.95
0.83
0.99

1.01
1.02
0.94
1.13

Logit 3: (1/4)
Constant
63.46
SAT 1st
-0.02446
SAT 3rd
-0.02957
Top 10%
-0.18080
Acceptan
0.08871

12.91
0.01809
0.02097
0.04493
0.03821

4.92
-1.35
-1.41
-4.02
2.32

0.000
0.176
0.159
0.000
0.020

0.98
0.97
0.83
1.09

0.94
0.93
0.76
1.01

1.01
1.01
0.91
1.18

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

95% CI
Lower
Upper

16

Log-likelihood = -145.229
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 309.013, DF = 12, P-Value = 0.000
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method
Pearson
Deviance

Chi-Square
388.204
290.459

DF
642
642

P
1.000
1.000

The output gives separate logistic model estimates for each group relative to the group
with largest code number (I wanted these to be relative to the Top 50 group, which is why
I coded the groups 4321). We can note that each of the coefficients gets farther from
zero as the quality levels get farther apart. The two SAT variables both have insignificant
Wald statistics for all three regressions, but this isnt such a surprise, given how strongly
correlated they are:

Here is the model using only the SAT third quartile variable:

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

17

Nominal Logistic Regression: Tier number versus SAT 3rd quar, Top 10%, ...
Response Information
Variable
Tier num

Value
4
3
2
1
Total

Count
51
76
49
44
220

(Reference Event)

220 cases were used

29 cases contained missing values
Logistic Regression Table
Predictor
Coef
Logit 1: (3/4)
Constant
25.831
SAT 3rd
-0.018220
Top 10%
-0.07908
Acceptan
0.05507

SE Coef

Odds
Ratio

95% CI
Lower
Upper

9.292
0.006483
0.02166
0.02676

2.78
-2.81
-3.65
2.06

0.005
0.005
0.000
0.040

0.98
0.92
1.06

0.97
0.89
1.00

0.99
0.96
1.11

Logit 2: (2/4)
Constant
44.16
SAT 3rd
-0.032497
Top 10%
-0.13314
Acceptan
0.06365

10.70
0.007914
0.03252
0.03196

4.13
-4.11
-4.09
1.99

0.000
0.000
0.000
0.046

0.97
0.88
1.07

0.95
0.82
1.00

0.98
0.93
1.13

Logit 3: (1/4)
Constant
64.15
SAT 3rd
-0.050803
Top 10%
-0.19109
Acceptan
0.10108

11.92
0.009187
0.04502
0.03654

5.38
-5.53
-4.24
2.77

0.000
0.000
0.000
0.006

0.95
0.83
1.11

0.93
0.76
1.03

0.97
0.90
1.19

Log-likelihood = -148.113
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 303.245, DF = 9, P-Value = 0.000
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method
Pearson
Deviance

Chi-Square
381.486
296.227

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

DF
645
645

P
1.000
1.000

18

All coefficients are significantly different from zero (the test that any are nonzero is of
course highly significant). The results are as expected, with the coefficients for SAT and
percentage in the top 10% being negative (indicating greater probability of being a top 50
school with increasing values, given the other variables), and positive for acceptance rate
(indicating a smaller probability of being a top 50 school with increasing value, given the
other variables). The estimated odds ratios have the usual interpretation, relative to being
a top 50 school. Here are estimated probabilities of group membership (note that EPROB1
refers to the highest numbered group, or group 4):
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Tier
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

EPROB1

EPROB2

EPROB3

EPROB4

0.999856
0.999923
0.999882
0.999954
0.999916
0.999866
0.999342
0.998961
0.999609
0.999452
0.995404
0.996913
0.999140
0.996116
0.996519
0.999335
0.992657
0.995543
0.993258
0.999075
0.986252
0.905238
0.988791
0.996103
0.909319
0.996827
0.870207
0.985178

0.000144
0.000077
0.000118
0.000046
0.000084
0.000134
0.000658
0.001039
0.000391
0.000548
0.004592
0.003084
0.000860
0.003880
0.003477
0.000664
0.007329
0.004453
0.006730
0.000924
0.013712
0.094142
0.011184
0.003891
0.090127
0.003169
0.128465
0.014763

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000001
0.000000
0.000000
0.000004
0.000003
0.000000
0.000005
0.000004
0.000000
0.000013
0.000004
0.000012
0.000001
0.000036
0.000620
0.000025
0.000006
0.000554
0.000004
0.001327
0.000059

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000001
0.000000

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

19

29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2

0.841402
0.979080
0.992349
0.981591
0.253852
0.901544
0.984143
0.442547
0.782978
0.957025
0.908014
0.643605
0.837356
0.846490
0.853562
*
0.030794
0.166216
0.451106
0.902724
0.438863
0.134782
0.930190
0.148133
0.011933
0.001307
0.012209
0.714999
0.717888
0.003673
0.015490
0.014704
0.022501
0.002048
0.070022
0.191790
0.007132
0.269472
0.054963
0.611855
0.000435
0.003694
0.010337
0.024185

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.155733
0.020851
0.007636
0.018333
0.716928
0.097675
0.015803
0.541759
0.213924
0.042662
0.091647
0.346651
0.161173
0.152098
0.144856
*
0.810000
0.737908
0.537551
0.096053
0.548721
0.791307
0.069251
0.778947
0.703982
0.448768
0.758864
0.279280
0.278756
0.604088
0.777931
0.717923
0.724414
0.478030
0.853017
0.732081
0.574933
0.676124
0.783200
0.381852
0.277029
0.655507
0.729555
0.829412

0.002862
0.000068
0.000015
0.000077
0.029056
0.000782
0.000053
0.015645
0.003095
0.000313
0.000339
0.009725
0.001470
0.001409
0.001579
*
0.152093
0.094687
0.011313
0.001222
0.012377
0.072846
0.000559
0.072030
0.263549
0.412729
0.211551
0.005713
0.003352
0.333510
0.192981
0.250295
0.238900
0.414020
0.075265
0.075167
0.372288
0.054020
0.158444
0.006283
0.448158
0.294495
0.240259
0.140574

0.000003
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000164
0.000000
0.000000
0.000049
0.000003
0.000000
0.000000
0.000018
0.000001
0.000002
0.000002
*
0.007114
0.001189
0.000031
0.000001
0.000038
0.001065
0.000000
0.000890
0.020537
0.137196
0.017377
0.000008
0.000004
0.058729
0.013598
0.017078
0.014185
0.105903
0.001696
0.000963
0.045647
0.000384
0.003393
0.000010
0.274378
0.046304
0.019849
0.005830
20

73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

*
0.075298
0.003596
0.010643
0.039820
0.039394
0.000957
0.002183
0.001421
0.037874
0.000010
0.005612
0.579857
0.071329
0.001442
0.465306
0.001988
0.006843
0.001749
0.089643
0.006707
0.001935
0.001691
0.221626
0.573799
0.001149
0.002782
0.011038
0.027456
0.002480
0.499126
0.078941
0.003592
0.033036
0.012442
0.508596
0.001749
0.118389
0.028203
0.029627
0.195795
0.003480
0.000707
0.016693

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

*
0.823935
0.511454
0.802556
0.784168
0.817239
0.367693
0.482327
0.275115
0.753286
0.040645
0.652133
0.409271
0.818899
0.328149
0.506075
0.354548
0.527324
0.397071
0.789316
0.635998
0.511365
0.465744
0.746064
0.419636
0.440182
0.460295
0.742451
0.673116
0.490903
0.486851
0.800487
0.609340
0.797156
0.749670
0.474153
0.396913
0.767367
0.808459
0.864806
0.783524
0.652558
0.315933
0.810268

*
0.098912
0.410059
0.174296
0.169962
0.139230
0.460952
0.409719
0.525872
0.201467
0.225494
0.300932
0.010848
0.107668
0.518108
0.028501
0.505799
0.413255
0.467887
0.118765
0.315368
0.382118
0.400679
0.031853
0.006541
0.416317
0.441677
0.230612
0.284950
0.401138
0.013975
0.118091
0.334916
0.164306
0.221585
0.017201
0.472787
0.112317
0.157459
0.102522
0.020571
0.295696
0.468916
0.164301

*
0.001855
0.074891
0.012505
0.006049
0.004137
0.170399
0.105771
0.197592
0.007372
0.733852
0.041323
0.000023
0.002104
0.152302
0.000118
0.137665
0.052578
0.133292
0.002276
0.041928
0.104582
0.131887
0.000458
0.000023
0.142352
0.095245
0.015898
0.014478
0.105478
0.000048
0.002481
0.052152
0.005502
0.016302
0.000051
0.128552
0.001927
0.005878
0.003045
0.000111
0.048266
0.214444
0.008737
21

117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

0.000343
0.019748
0.316287
0.000651
0.003123
0.012168
0.006824
0.009233
0.253106
0.006761
0.000469
0.032934
*
0.189068
0.000258
*
0.001479
0.000856
0.000010
0.000050
*
0.001406
0.001628
0.005965
*
0.000028
0.000082
0.005870
0.002561
0.013085
0.000595
0.004544
0.193487
0.000353
*
0.000726
0.005673
0.000170
0.000027
0.081364
0.000004
0.000025
*
0.000069

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.282766
0.704796
0.636781
0.317322
0.477354
0.756273
0.563512
0.669551
0.719874
0.757128
0.282835
0.749108
*
0.768705
0.175924
*
0.306732
0.334512
0.035785
0.109282
*
0.400674
0.445275
0.655991
*
0.068062
0.077409
0.537391
0.510349
0.713248
0.336418
0.451570
0.762595
0.175977
*
0.295758
0.716340
0.189834
0.059787
0.811172
0.019680
0.051566
*
0.130777

0.424747
0.259547
0.046572
0.452902
0.424657
0.215439
0.381870
0.286648
0.026868
0.215457
0.458575
0.208734
*
0.041901
0.454509
*
0.529405
0.456370
0.231653
0.349211
*
0.459817
0.429681
0.296898
*
0.311639
0.388868
0.402281
0.396719
0.255718
0.447843
0.467864
0.043600
0.485455
*
0.490358
0.247724
0.404051
0.296032
0.105305
0.170956
0.295271
*
0.361489

0.292144
0.015909
0.000360
0.229125
0.094865
0.016121
0.047793
0.034569
0.000151
0.020654
0.258121
0.009224
*
0.000326
0.369310
*
0.162384
0.208263
0.732552
0.541457
*
0.138103
0.123415
0.041146
*
0.620271
0.533641
0.054458
0.090371
0.017948
0.215144
0.076022
0.000318
0.338215
*
0.213158
0.030264
0.405946
0.644153
0.002160
0.809361
0.653138
*
0.507665
22

161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

0.009142
0.003893
0.019457
0.000096
0.000830
0.000819
0.002346
*
0.000161
0.024869
0.019061
0.081449
*
0.000685
0.000006
0.000927
0.000141
0.001172
0.000997
0.050454
0.000520
*
0.000011
*
0.000119
0.000124
0.000713
0.006995
0.000202
0.000000
0.000004
0.000017
*
0.005099
0.000014
0.000047
0.000098
0.000000
0.000000
*
0.000001
0.000270
0.000028
*

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.748280
0.653794
0.837521
0.138173
0.293517
0.373836
0.389222
*
0.167326
0.744960
0.797784
0.829272
*
0.277160
0.024427
0.273947
0.145160
0.243873
0.270403
0.733503
0.374342
*
0.036225
*
0.159569
0.183424
0.299774
0.672744
0.195490
0.002389
0.018392
0.049969
*
0.517585
0.031422
0.074535
0.128507
0.000813
0.001204
*
0.008808
0.239470
0.065204
*

0.222503
0.304093
0.136758
0.397316
0.470214
0.442845
0.484450
*
0.411864
0.219031
0.173442
0.087801
*
0.488300
0.205496
0.520952
0.421296
0.517235
0.517663
0.209471
0.402801
*
0.241240
*
0.400322
0.379373
0.463717
0.282918
0.429002
0.054541
0.178468
0.276188
*
0.396791
0.273353
0.358206
0.412775
0.030871
0.040078
*
0.101695
0.386384
0.306442
*

0.020076
0.038220
0.006264
0.464415
0.235440
0.182500
0.123982
*
0.420649
0.011140
0.009713
0.001478
*
0.233855
0.770071
0.204175
0.433403
0.237720
0.210937
0.006572
0.222337
*
0.722523
*
0.439990
0.437079
0.235796
0.037343
0.375306
0.943070
0.803137
0.673826
*
0.080524
0.695211
0.567212
0.458621
0.968316
0.958718
*
0.889496
0.373875
0.628326
*
23

205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

0.000362
0.000092
0.000230
0.000148
*
0.000016
*
*
0.000000
0.000036
0.000029
*
0.000007
0.000000
*
*
*
*
0.000006
*
0.000002
0.008077
0.000343
0.000010
0.000032
*
0.000147
0.000047
*
*
0.003714
0.000306
0.000029
*
0.000020
0.000448
*
0.000038
0.000027
0.000000
0.000028
0.000011
0.000106
*

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.255739
0.120302
0.164589
0.135270
*
0.037978
*
*
0.000264
0.099745
0.059220
*
0.019537
0.000453
*
*
*
*
0.033964
*
0.012121
0.583247
0.219051
0.032203
0.068434
*
0.183429
0.062165
*
*
0.449081
0.264568
0.061979
*
0.054667
0.251977
*
0.107614
0.068640
0.000451
0.093271
0.040198
0.131686
*

0.472086
0.366077
0.481074
0.401307
*
0.257464
*
*
0.027483
0.317912
0.322584
*
0.211926
0.017821
*
*
*
*
0.206300
*
0.132725
0.363303
0.469708
0.246355
0.298180
*
0.401494
0.364819
*
*
0.465123
0.444771
0.290085
*
0.286253
0.467378
*
0.315870
0.285681
0.019257
0.293975
0.249682
0.419374
*

0.271813
0.513529
0.354107
0.463275
*
0.704543
*
*
0.972253
0.582307
0.618167
*
0.768530
0.981726
*
*
*
*
0.759730
*
0.855152
0.045373
0.310898
0.721431
0.633354
*
0.414929
0.572968
*
*
0.082082
0.290355
0.647908
*
0.659060
0.280197
*
0.576478
0.645652
0.980292
0.612727
0.710108
0.448834
*
24

249

Tier 4

0.000012

0.046757

0.239430

0.713801

The top 32 schools are correctly classified as Top 50 schools. Here is a classification
table (see the end of this handout to see how to get Minitab to create a table like this).
Note that the top 50 schools are best separated from the others (84% correctly classified),
while the Tier 3 schools (coded 2 here) are basically indistinguishable from the Tier 2 and
Tier 4 schools.
Rows: Tier num

Columns: Predict

All

33
15.07

8
3.65

3
1.37

44
20.09

16
7.31

17
7.76

15
6.85

0
--

48
21.92

1
0.46

11
5.02

57
26.03

7
3.20

76
34.70

0
--

8
3.65

43
19.63

51
23.29

50
22.83

36
16.44

83
37.90

50
22.83

219
100.00

-All

--

Cell Contents -Count

% of Tbl

About 68% (150/219) of the schools are correctly classified, far higher than Cmax = 34.7%
and Cpro = 33.3%.
These logistic regression results seem pretty good, especially when you consider that
weve ignored a key aspect of these data the ordering of the groups. Here are the results
of a logit proportional odds fit:

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

25

Ordinal Logistic Regression: Tier number versus SAT 1st quar,

SAT 3rd quar, ...
Link Function:

Logit

Response Information
Variable
Tier num

Value
1
2
3
4
Total

Count
44
49
76
51
220

220 cases were used

29 cases contained missing values
Logistic Regression Table
Predictor
Const(1)
Const(2)
Const(3)
SAT 1st
SAT 3rd
Top 10%
Acceptan

Coef
21.674
23.946
29.103
-0.008999
-0.012005
-0.07493
0.03005

SE Coef
3.617
3.707
3.966
0.003907
0.004292
0.01475
0.01316

Z
5.99
6.46
7.34
-2.30
-2.80
-5.08
2.28

P
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.021
0.005
0.000
0.022

Odds
Ratio

0.99
0.99
0.93
1.03

95% CI
Lower
Upper

0.98
0.98
0.90
1.00

1.00
1.00
0.96
1.06

Log-likelihood = -147.938
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 303.595, DF = 4, P-Value = 0.000
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method
Pearson
Deviance

Chi-Square
416.820
295.877

DF
650
650

P
1.000
1.000

Measures of Association:
(Between the Response Variable and Predicted Probabilities)
Pairs
Concordant
Discordant
Ties

Number
16522
1300
21

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

Percent
92.6%
7.3%
0.1%

Summary Measures
Somers D
Goodman-Kruskal Gamma
Kendalls Tau-a

0.85
0.85
0.63
26

Total

17843

100.0%

The variables have a highly significant relationship with probability of group membership. The negative signs are consistent with decreasing odds of being a lowerrated
school with increasing SAT quartiles and percentage in the top 10% of the high school
class, given the other variables; the positive sign is consistent with increasing odds of a
lowerrated school with increasing acceptance rate. The measures of association are high,
reinforcing the worth of the model. The pattern in the constants suggests that the highest
(Top 50) group is slightly more removed from the Tier 3 schools than the Tier 2 schools
are from the Tier 4 schools. Somers D is reasonably high; in this context, a set of objects
(one from each group) is concordant if the probability of being in group 1 is highest for the
actual member of group 1, the probability of being in group 1 or 2 is highest for the actual
member of group 2, the probability of being in groups 1, 2, or 3 is highest for the actual
member of group 3, and so on, where the groups are ordered from lowest to highest.
Here are the estimated group probabilities from this model, along with a classification
matrix:
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Tier
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

EPROB5

EPROB6

EPROB7

EPROB8

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000001
0.000001
0.000001
0.000001
0.000004
0.000003
0.000001
0.000004
0.000003
0.000001
0.000006

0.000002
0.000001
0.000001
0.000000
0.000001
0.000002
0.000006
0.000010
0.000005
0.000005
0.000031
0.000022
0.000008
0.000033
0.000024
0.000008
0.000050

0.000312
0.000127
0.000190
0.000052
0.000111
0.000289
0.001133
0.001885
0.000960
0.000975
0.005875
0.004229
0.001622
0.006232
0.004557
0.001598
0.009447

0.999686
0.999872
0.999809
0.999948
0.999888
0.999709
0.998860
0.998104
0.999034
0.999019
0.994091
0.995746
0.998368
0.993731
0.995417
0.998393
0.990498

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

27

18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61

Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2

0.000002
0.000005
0.000002
0.000015
0.000057
0.000008
0.000004
0.000066
0.000006
0.000081
0.000015
0.000239
0.000017
0.000010
0.000017
0.000829
0.000076
0.000017
0.000642
0.000139
0.000040
0.000042
0.000381
0.000082
0.000188
0.000172
*
0.014783
0.004559
0.000398
0.000127
0.000491
0.004365
0.000089
0.003988
0.025432
0.116559
0.023324
0.000212
0.000196
0.063846
0.017905
0.028999
0.017625

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.000021
0.000044
0.000017
0.000132
0.000492
0.000073
0.000035
0.000572
0.000050
0.000705
0.000131
0.002071
0.000144
0.000089
0.000146
0.007151
0.000663
0.000146
0.005552
0.001208
0.000348
0.000365
0.003300
0.000715
0.001636
0.001495
*
0.112269
0.037971
0.003446
0.001104
0.004249
0.036428
0.000773
0.033401
0.176560
0.444797
0.164749
0.001837
0.001705
0.334296
0.132363
0.195618
0.130601

0.003988
0.008398
0.003186
0.024691
0.086505
0.013895
0.006611
0.099067
0.009606
0.119405
0.024660
0.284432
0.026949
0.016872
0.027312
0.574838
0.113185
0.027338
0.513603
0.188405
0.062793
0.065610
0.387172
0.120965
0.239073
0.223118
*
0.834893
0.842721
0.397412
0.175146
0.447927
0.839965
0.129409
0.833512
0.775767
0.434166
0.787674
0.260794
0.246757
0.593229
0.818200
0.755894
0.819747

0.995989
0.991553
0.996796
0.975163
0.912946
0.986023
0.993351
0.900296
0.990338
0.879809
0.975194
0.713259
0.972890
0.983028
0.972525
0.417183
0.886076
0.972499
0.480203
0.810248
0.936819
0.933983
0.609147
0.878237
0.759104
0.775216
*
0.038055
0.114749
0.598744
0.823622
0.547334
0.119242
0.869730
0.129099
0.022241
0.004479
0.024254
0.737157
0.751341
0.008629
0.031532
0.019488
0.032027
28

62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

0.069412
0.006159
0.003541
0.051594
0.001624
0.130926
0.000342
0.307740
0.074447
0.029013
0.011150
*
0.003700
0.075421
0.018710
0.012733
0.012921
0.149147
0.121257
0.182210
0.016359
0.672492
0.053140
0.000363
0.005790
0.137961
0.001168
0.104629
0.070316
0.143517
0.005619
0.045424
0.116588
0.161134
0.003400
0.000547
0.131173
0.092676
0.033047
0.026937
0.100644
0.000781
0.005878
0.060313

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.350372
0.050540
0.029776
0.293817
0.013910
0.462778
0.002966
0.504005
0.363819
0.195689
0.087436
*
0.031073
0.366305
0.137365
0.098454
0.099742
0.480520
0.451110
0.501451
0.122550
0.279700
0.299347
0.003147
0.047675
0.470243
0.010050
0.426649
0.352861
0.475580
0.046344
0.270376
0.444838
0.489603
0.028628
0.004731
0.463055
0.405001
0.215921
0.184739
0.419846
0.006743
0.048361
0.323379

0.572321
0.855884
0.823538
0.643795
0.717125
0.402372
0.362349
0.186922
0.554408
0.755819
0.851402
*
0.827428
0.551050
0.813732
0.844812
0.843957
0.366957
0.423350
0.313682
0.826629
0.047519
0.637047
0.376086
0.854030
0.388101
0.652148
0.463668
0.569035
0.377373
0.852976
0.671879
0.434096
0.346182
0.819751
0.474306
0.401856
0.496544
0.733960
0.767331
0.474234
0.560835
0.854524
0.607145

0.007895
0.087418
0.143145
0.010794
0.267341
0.003925
0.634343
0.001334
0.007326
0.019479
0.050013
*
0.137799
0.007224
0.030193
0.044001
0.043381
0.003375
0.004283
0.002657
0.034462
0.000289
0.010466
0.620403
0.092505
0.003695
0.336633
0.005054
0.007787
0.003530
0.095061
0.012321
0.004478
0.003081
0.148221
0.520416
0.003916
0.005778
0.017072
0.020993
0.005276
0.431640
0.091237
0.009164
29

106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

0.015885
0.025076
0.000713
0.152947
0.006055
0.016368
0.007245
0.000963
0.076545
0.210625
0.021036
0.276815
0.025427
0.002036
0.186846
0.104728
0.024716
0.053835
0.045449
0.001602
0.053900
0.198452
0.014331
*
0.001486
0.333781
*
0.212939
0.228714
0.707682
0.540923
*
0.126039
0.129438
0.048109
*
0.480966
0.406953
0.116424
0.084273
0.077534
0.236678
0.081876
0.002546

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.119490
0.174597
0.006158
0.483603
0.049736
0.122609
0.058862
0.008302
0.369133
0.510678
0.151441
0.510996
0.176534
0.017365
0.503441
0.426814
0.172597
0.301793
0.270478
0.013725
0.302018
0.507561
0.109267
*
0.012744
0.495560
*
0.511142
0.513309
0.251473
0.378620
*
0.457095
0.461092
0.280853
*
0.418917
0.462431
0.444609
0.387367
0.371583
0.513791
0.381929
0.021614

0.829156
0.777770
0.538894
0.360173
0.855418
0.826580
0.858672
0.609665
0.547212
0.276477
0.800641
0.210641
0.775794
0.755181
0.307137
0.463409
0.779800
0.634047
0.671760
0.714661
0.633770
0.291595
0.837177
*
0.700634
0.169476
*
0.273730
0.255980
0.040601
0.079953
*
0.412767
0.405494
0.659429
*
0.099477
0.129752
0.434482
0.521952
0.543870
0.247620
0.529583
0.787160

0.035470
0.022557
0.454235
0.003277
0.088791
0.034443
0.075221
0.381070
0.007110
0.002220
0.026882
0.001548
0.022245
0.225419
0.002577
0.005049
0.022887
0.010325
0.012314
0.270011
0.010312
0.002392
0.039225
*
0.285137
0.001183
*
0.002189
0.001998
0.000245
0.000504
*
0.004099
0.003976
0.011609
*
0.000640
0.000864
0.004485
0.006409
0.007013
0.001911
0.006612
0.188680
30

150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
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172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4

0.381878
*
0.203160
0.053915
0.400040
0.570565
0.003702
0.806007
0.638487
*
0.499840
0.028609
0.327022
0.018164
0.477219
0.193804
0.205724
0.085375
*
0.382107
0.017882
0.034556
0.010194
*
0.267686
0.728842
0.191224
0.389081
0.210663
0.223266
0.015415
0.226197
*
0.704523
*
0.357599
0.334032
0.143615
0.062111
0.304529
0.960039
0.734741
0.610335
*

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.475112
*
0.508905
0.302072
0.466047
0.357427
0.031084
0.169780
0.306359
*
0.406646
0.193587
0.497951
0.133980
0.421303
0.506053
0.509563
0.389804
*
0.475002
0.132217
0.223153
0.080633
*
0.512320
0.234219
0.505135
0.471596
0.510686
0.512750
0.116424
0.513074
*
0.254031
*
0.486137
0.495469
0.475670
0.329007
0.504895
0.035688
0.229375
0.327909
*

0.142050
*
0.285612
0.633703
0.133023
0.071561
0.827460
0.024070
0.054818
*
0.092921
0.758047
0.173807
0.816768
0.100828
0.297680
0.282427
0.518502
*
0.141932
0.818329
0.725978
0.854679
*
0.218373
0.036718
0.301136
0.138393
0.276432
0.261924
0.831632
0.258703
*
0.041197
*
0.155198
0.169318
0.377188
0.599998
0.189222
0.004248
0.035670
0.061377
*

0.000960
*
0.002323
0.010309
0.000889
0.000447
0.137755
0.000143
0.000336
*
0.000594
0.019757
0.001220
0.031089
0.000650
0.002463
0.002287
0.006319
*
0.000959
0.031572
0.016314
0.054493
*
0.001621
0.000221
0.002504
0.000931
0.002219
0.002061
0.036530
0.002027
*
0.000249
*
0.001065
0.001182
0.003527
0.008884
0.001354
0.000025
0.000214
0.000379
*
31

194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
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215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

0.053161
0.662128
0.606646
0.399714
0.967368
0.963347
*
0.852517
0.268173
0.555747
*
0.233848
0.507437
0.323611
0.425454
*
0.672381
*
*
0.983080
0.566954
0.480829
*
0.801101
0.981847
*
*
*
*
0.830505
*
0.909650
0.042254
0.340428
0.685304
0.610529
*
0.410843
0.613680
*
*
0.119504
0.389082
0.669189

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.299422
0.287893
0.330694
0.466216
0.029166
0.032746
*
0.129960
0.512259
0.368115
*
0.513664
0.401593
0.499107
0.452337
*
0.279788
*
*
0.015148
0.360049
0.419004
*
0.173941
0.016251
*
*
*
*
0.148888
*
0.080214
0.257434
0.493082
0.269494
0.327762
*
0.460357
0.325375
*
*
0.448807
0.471595
0.282318

0.636955
0.049676
0.062275
0.133180
0.003446
0.003885
*
0.017420
0.217951
0.075664
*
0.250548
0.090394
0.176043
0.121408
*
0.047542
*
*
0.001761
0.072544
0.099526
*
0.024811
0.001892
*
*
*
*
0.020486
*
0.010077
0.687035
0.165341
0.044930
0.061330
*
0.127949
0.060571
*
*
0.427335
0.138392
0.048200

0.010462
0.000303
0.000385
0.000891
0.000020
0.000023
*
0.000103
0.001617
0.000474
*
0.001941
0.000576
0.001239
0.000801
*
0.000289
*
*
0.000010
0.000453
0.000641
*
0.000147
0.000011
*
*
*
*
0.000121
*
0.000059
0.013276
0.001149
0.000273
0.000379
*
0.000851
0.000374
*
*
0.004355
0.000931
0.000293
32

238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249

Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

*
0.592374
0.323859
*
0.552238
0.614125
0.981841
0.585345
0.652181
0.480823
*
0.707733

Rows: Tier num

*
0.341383
0.499024
*
0.370619
0.325037
0.016256
0.346593
0.295702
0.419008
*
0.251431

*
0.065835
0.175880
*
0.076662
0.060465
0.001892
0.067641
0.051801
0.099528
*
0.040591

*
0.000408
0.001238
*
0.000481
0.000373
0.000011
0.000420
0.000316
0.000641
*
0.000245

Columns: Predict

All

30
13.70

11
5.02

3
1.37

44
20.09

10
4.57

24
10.96

14
6.39

0
--

48
21.92

1
0.46

16
7.31

54
24.66

5
2.28

76
34.70

0
--

6
2.74

45
20.55

51
23.29

41
18.72

51
23.29

77
35.16

50
22.83

219
100.00

-All

--

Cell Contents -Count

% of Tbl

The model correctly classifies 69.9% of the schools, slightly better than the nominal
logistic regression model, and does so using fewer parameters (the nominal model based
on three predictors estimates three logistic regressions, each with four parameters, for 12
total parameters, while the proportional odds model uses only 7 parameters). This is the
c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

33

benefit that comes from taking advantage of the natural ordering in the categories. The
ordinal model does a noticeably better job of differentiating the Tier 3 schools from the
others, and correctly classifies the top 43 schools.
Here is a probit proportional odds fit. Nothing much changes, although note that the
probit regression output doesnt include any estimated odds ratio information.
Ordinal Logistic Regression: Tier number versus SAT 1st quar,
SAT 3rd quar, ...

Link Function:

Normit

Response Information
Variable
Tier num

Value
1
2
3
4
Total

Count
44
49
76
51
220

220 cases were used

29 cases contained missing values

Logistic Regression Table

Predictor
Const(1)
Const(2)
Const(3)
SAT 1st
SAT 3rd
Top 10%
Acceptan

Coef
12.322
13.629
16.415
-0.004881
-0.006962
-0.041432
0.016093

SE Coef
1.988
2.026
2.139
0.002251
0.002476
0.008005
0.007422

Z
6.20
6.73
7.67
-2.17
-2.81
-5.18
2.17

P
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.030
0.005
0.000
0.030

Log-likelihood = -147.769
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 303.933, DF = 4, P-Value = 0.000
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method

Chi-Square

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

DF

P
34

Pearson
Deviance

400.465
295.539

650
650

1.000
1.000

Measures of Association:
(Between the Response Variable and Predicted Probabilities)
Pairs
Concordant
Discordant
Ties
Total

Number
16527
1293
23
17843

Percent
92.6%
7.2%
0.1%
100.0%

Summary Measures
Somers D
Goodman-Kruskal Gamma
Kendalls Tau-a

0.85
0.85
0.63

Just for fun, I also took a look at a proportional odds fit using the quality/reputation
variables. Probably not surprisingly, it does even better than the model based on incoming
student quality, correctly classifying 86% of the universities (including the top 46); after all,
these variables more directly represent the actual quality of the experience at the school,
rather than the raw material of incoming students. Three Tier 2 schools are misclassified
as Top 50 George Washington University, Indiana University, and Syracuse University
these might be up and comers for the future.
Ordinal Logistic Regression: Tier number versus Alumni givin,
Pct under 20, ...
Link Function:

Logit

Response Information
Variable
Tier num

Value
1
2
3
4
Total

Count
53
53
77
52
235

235 cases were used

14 cases contained missing values

Logistic Regression Table

Odds
c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

95% CI
35

Predictor
Const(1)
Const(2)
Const(3)
Alumni g
Pct unde
Freshman
Graduati
Reputati

Coef
52.608
59.891
71.74
-0.10911
-0.12117
-0.18775
-0.22979
-8.809

SE Coef
7.899
8.798
10.20
0.03973
0.02624
0.06565
0.04341
1.293

Z
6.66
6.81
7.04
-2.75
-4.62
-2.86
-5.29
-6.81

P
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.000
0.004
0.000
0.000

Ratio

Lower

Upper

0.90
0.89
0.83
0.79
0.00

0.83
0.84
0.73
0.73
0.00

0.97
0.93
0.94
0.87
0.00

Log-likelihood = -64.482
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 515.463, DF = 5, P-Value = 0.000
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method
Pearson
Deviance

Chi-Square
137.218
128.965

DF
697
697

P
1.000
1.000

Measures of Association:
(Between the Response Variable and Predicted Probabilities)
Pairs
Concordant
Discordant
Ties
Total

Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Number
20247
236
4
20487

Tier
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top
Top

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

Percent
98.8%
1.2%
0.0%
100.0%

Summary Measures
Somers D
Goodman-Kruskal Gamma
Kendalls Tau-a

EPROB9

EPROB10

EPROB11

EPROB12

0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000

1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.98
0.98
0.73

36

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Top 50
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2

0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00001
0.00001
0.00000
0.00000

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000001
0.000000
0.000000
0.000001
0.000001
0.000001
0.000002
0.000002
0.000000
0.000000
0.000012
0.000044
0.000002
0.000011
0.000050
0.000000
0.016829
0.017989
0.003715
0.000021

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000003
0.000001
0.000000
0.000000
0.000003
0.000013
0.000002
0.000002
0.000072
0.000932
0.000033
0.000158
0.000131
0.005367
0.012775
0.000705
0.000226
0.002432
0.004522
0.122112
0.016972
0.054862
0.073599
0.141683
0.146120
0.179780
0.252763
0.062867
0.029337
0.627161
0.859737
0.241206
0.600679
0.876629
0.027835
0.982745
0.981611
0.994381
0.751128

1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
0.99999
1.00000
1.00000
0.99993
0.99907
0.99997
0.99984
0.99987
0.99463
0.98723
0.99930
0.99977
0.99757
0.99548
0.87789
0.98303
0.94514
0.92640
0.85832
0.85388
0.82022
0.74723
0.93713
0.97066
0.37283
0.14022
0.75879
0.39931
0.12332
0.97216
0.00041
0.00039
0.00190
0.24885
37

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0.00000
0.00001
0.00009
0.00000
0.00001
0.00010
0.00002
0.00002
0.00000
0.00000
0.00007
0.00002
0.00000
0.00000
0.00003
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00006
0.00001
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00027
0.00000
0.00009
0.00000
0.00073
0.00000
0.00023
0.00000
0.00000
0.00012
0.00006
0.00000
0.00002
0.00001
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00032

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.000775
0.009788
0.119619
0.001775
0.019471
0.131609
0.034896
0.030800
0.000294
0.000001
0.095668
0.027481
0.000004
0.001842
0.046812
0.001681
*
0.000044
0.000561
0.084820
0.010249
0.000133
0.003169
0.000013
0.279139
0.000197
0.117156
0.000314
0.516101
0.003905
0.246499
0.000055
0.001931
0.147666
0.081305
0.000001
0.025593
0.007223
0.005877
0.003873
0.003466
0.000046
0.000382
0.315915

0.990145
0.989487
0.880235
0.994244
0.980158
0.868240
0.964883
0.968954
0.976152
0.135109
0.904192
0.972248
0.365555
0.994322
0.953009
0.994116
*
0.860519
0.986944
0.915040
0.989058
0.949174
0.994599
0.649601
0.720576
0.964923
0.882699
0.977593
0.483158
0.994283
0.753254
0.885548
0.994409
0.852174
0.918554
0.152573
0.974118
0.991796
0.992919
0.994300
0.994493
0.866436
0.981380
0.683752

0.00908
0.00072
0.00005
0.00398
0.00036
0.00005
0.00020
0.00022
0.02355
0.86489
0.00007
0.00025
0.63444
0.00383
0.00014
0.00420
*
0.13944
0.01249
0.00008
0.00069
0.05069
0.00223
0.35039
0.00002
0.03488
0.00005
0.02209
0.00001
0.00181
0.00002
0.11440
0.00366
0.00004
0.00008
0.84743
0.00027
0.00098
0.00120
0.00182
0.00204
0.13352
0.01824
0.00002
38

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3

0.00000
0.00001
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00003
0.00042
0.00000
0.00001
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00197
0.00013
0.00000
0.00073
0.00000
0.00000
0.00001
0.00000
0.00011
0.00008
0.00007
0.00084
0.00533
0.00022
0.00000
0.00000
0.00001
0.00000
0.76257
*
0.50034
0.00112
0.42271
0.01228
*
0.00018
0.00009
0.04902
0.01634
0.00503
0.92291
0.00033

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.000222
0.011614
0.000040
0.000047
0.000033
0.046344
0.379489
0.000040
0.009512
0.006616
0.000316
0.000725
0.739664
0.160416
0.004521
0.515468
0.005358
0.006269
0.011158
0.005116
0.136064
0.107246
0.093060
0.549711
0.880965
0.238119
0.002915
0.000379
0.013917
0.000063
0.237217
*
0.498979
0.619623
0.576355
0.935338
*
0.208827
0.115169
0.937820
0.943919
0.875274
0.077029
0.323247

0.968763
0.987774
0.850082
0.868526
0.822234
0.953476
0.620079
0.848745
0.989743
0.992314
0.977690
0.989579
0.258364
0.839416
0.993914
0.483792
0.993321
0.992602
0.988206
0.993501
0.863783
0.892612
0.906800
0.449442
0.113705
0.761643
0.994659
0.981224
0.985571
0.898900
0.000214
*
0.000686
0.379249
0.000938
0.052379
*
0.790964
0.884687
0.013159
0.039746
0.119695
0.000057
0.676409

0.03101
0.00060
0.14988
0.13143
0.17773
0.00015
0.00001
0.15122
0.00074
0.00107
0.02199
0.00970
0.00000
0.00004
0.00156
0.00001
0.00132
0.00112
0.00063
0.00138
0.00005
0.00006
0.00007
0.00001
0.00000
0.00002
0.00242
0.01840
0.00050
0.10104
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00003
0.00005
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00001
39

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4

0.00139
0.33113
0.18946
0.00398
0.34739
0.27012
*
0.00727
0.05028
0.00023
0.46786
0.00324
0.00012
0.02174
0.03461
0.54071
0.62305
*
0.03039
0.11835
0.00463
0.00156
0.15216
0.58284
0.00694
0.00619
0.06355
0.13807
0.36633
0.09295
0.30891
0.28669
0.00484
0.31304
0.68596
0.16877
0.06482
0.52755
0.02069
0.11295
0.02136
0.01761
0.01879
0.61904

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.668447
0.667479
0.807607
0.849340
0.651317
0.728025
*
0.906946
0.936903
0.252663
0.531355
0.822085
0.153229
0.948260
0.946580
0.458708
0.376531
*
0.948149
0.876557
0.866699
0.692339
0.844020
0.416667
0.903544
0.894402
0.926421
0.857661
0.632486
0.900383
0.689556
0.711602
0.871394
0.685456
0.313727
0.827858
0.925359
0.471831
0.947802
0.881683
0.948109
0.945460
0.946556
0.380538

0.330157
0.001386
0.002932
0.146676
0.001290
0.001854
*
0.085781
0.012817
0.747084
0.000781
0.174677
0.846607
0.029995
0.018814
0.000584
0.000416
*
0.021457
0.005094
0.128667
0.306102
0.003815
0.000492
0.089512
0.099409
0.010027
0.004273
0.001188
0.006663
0.001535
0.001707
0.123762
0.001506
0.000315
0.003374
0.009819
0.000615
0.031505
0.005369
0.030532
0.036930
0.034659
0.000423

0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00002
0.00000
0.00000
0.00004
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
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40

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4

0.83065
0.99998
0.37105
0.99960
0.99422
0.75086
0.84109
0.99799
0.38041
0.56272
0.99485
*
0.31630
0.43901
0.99790
*
0.29319
0.74971
0.63347
0.99798
0.96338
0.80464
0.98057
0.83908
0.65765
0.19043
0.58495
0.99491
0.99919
0.99995
1.00000
0.92896
0.76114
0.93258
0.99558
*
*
0.79828
*
0.12587
0.85457
0.99999
0.98875
0.97217

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

0.169213
0.000017
0.627784
0.000404
0.005779
0.248914
0.158777
0.002013
0.618468
0.436751
0.005142
*
0.682213
0.560112
0.002098
*
0.705152
0.250056
0.366129
0.002019
0.036596
0.195195
0.019414
0.160784
0.341988
0.806657
0.414558
0.005085
0.000805
0.000046
0.000000
0.070985
0.238649
0.067370
0.004421
*
*
0.201544
*
0.869380
0.145310
0.000009
0.011238
0.027806

0.000140
0.000000
0.001164
0.000000
0.000004
0.000228
0.000130
0.000001
0.001118
0.000534
0.000004
*
0.001484
0.000878
0.000001
*
0.001654
0.000229
0.000398
0.000001
0.000026
0.000167
0.000014
0.000132
0.000358
0.002914
0.000487
0.000004
0.000001
0.000000
0.000000
0.000053
0.000216
0.000050
0.000003
*
*
0.000174
*
0.004751
0.000117
0.000000
0.000008
0.000020

0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
*
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
41

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4
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4

*
0.98806
0.99291
0.22876
0.98664
0.99976
0.99050
0.99876
0.99765
*
0.98935
0.99998
0.96171
*
0.99538
*
0.98993

*
0.011931
0.007086
0.768933
0.013352
0.000242
0.009495
0.001242
0.002351
*
0.010642
0.000021
0.038260
*
0.004614
*
0.010067

*
0.000008
0.000005
0.002312
0.000009
0.000000
0.000007
0.000001
0.000002
*
0.000007
0.000000
0.000027
*
0.000003
*
0.000007

*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
*
0.00000
*
0.00000

Minitab commands
Nominal (multigroup, or polytomous) logistic regression is obtained by clicking on
Stat Regression Nominal Logistic Regression. Enter the variable that defines
the groups under Response:, and enter the model in the same was as is done for binary
logistic regression. Estimated probabilities of membership for each group are obtained by
clicking on Storage, entering the number of groups in the box next to Enter the number
of events:, and clicking the box next to Event probabilities.
A proportional odds model is fit by clicking on Stat Regression Ordinal
Logistic Regression. All commands are entered in the same way as is done for nominal
logistic regression.
Creating a classification matrix when there are more than two groups
Creating a classification matrix from a logistic regression when there are more than
two groups is not easy in Minitab, but it can be done, as follows:
(1) Say the grouping (response) variable takes on the values 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, and is
called Group (change these instructions in the obvious way for a different number
c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

42

of groups). When fitting a nominal or ordinal logistic regression, click on Storage,

enter the number of groups under Enter the number of events: and click on Event
probabilities. This will create variables EPROB1, EPROB2, etc., up to EPROB5. If you
have fit a nominal logistic regression the variable EPROB5 is the estimated probability
that the observation belongs to group 1, EPROB4 is the probability of belonging to
group 2, etc., while if you have fit an ordinal logistic regression the variable EPROB1
is the estimated probability that the observation belongs to group 1, EPROB2 is the
probability of belonging to group 2, etc.
(2) Click on Calc Row Statistics. Click the radio button for Maximum, enter the
EPROB variables under Input variables:, and enter Maxvar under Store result
in:.
(3) Go to the calculator, and create a variable Predict as follows. If you are running a
nominal logistic regression, enter
5 (EPROB1 = Maxvar)+4 (EPROB2 = Maxvar)
+3 (EPROB3 = Maxvar)+2 (EPROB4 = Maxvar) + (EPROB5 = Maxvar)
If you are running an ordinal logistic regression, enter
5 (EPROB5 = Maxvar)+4 (EPROB4 = Maxvar)
+3 (EPROB3 = Maxvar)+2 (EPROB2 = Maxvar) + (EPROB1 = Maxvar)
(4) Go to Stat Tables Cross Tabulation and Chi-Square, enter Group and Predict under Categorical variables:, and click on Counts and Total percents.
One point about the table: any observations that have missing values in any of the
predictors will have as the entry under Predict the sum of the numbers of the groups
(in this case 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 15). This column in the classification table should be
ignored and/or removed. Note also that once again Minitab will combine all observations
with the same covariate pattern, so to get a classification matrix from a nominal or ordinal
logistic regression with replications at different covariate patterns youll want to jitter the
predictor variables before getting the estimated event probabilities.

c 2008, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

43