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Dr. Blackbourn - National FORUM of Educational Administration and Supervision Journal - William Allan Kritsonis, PhD - Editor-in-Chief - Global Website: www.nationalforum.com - National Refereed Journal

Dr. Blackbourn - National FORUM of Educational Administration and Supervision Journal - William Allan Kritsonis, PhD - Editor-in-Chief - Global Website: www.nationalforum.com - National Refereed Journal

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Dr. Blackbourn - National FORUM of Educational Administration and Supervision Journal - William Allan Kritsonis, PhD - Editor-in-Chief - Global Website: www.nationalforum.com - National Refereed Journal
Dr. Blackbourn - National FORUM of Educational Administration and Supervision Journal - William Allan Kritsonis, PhD - Editor-in-Chief - Global Website: www.nationalforum.com - National Refereed Journal

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Published by: William Allan Kritsonis on Jun 30, 2013
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 NATIONAL FORUM OF EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION AND SUPERVISION JOURNALVOLUME 24, NUMBER 3, 2007-2008
THE ROAD AHEAD: TEN TRENDSTHAT WILL IMPACT EDUCATION INTHIS CENTURY
J. M. BlackbournUniversity of MississippiJennifer FillingimUnited States Department of DefenseMary Alice KritsonisNational FORUM JournalsJim CampbellSouthern Illinois UniversityDennis RaderSun Valley Leadership InstituteDon SchillingerMcNeese State UniversityJan RayWest Texas A&M University
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 NATIONAL FORUM OF EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION AND SUPERVISION JOURNAL
ABSTRACT
This article examines ten world trends that will impact educational organizations overthe next 25 years. Some of these trends, such as shifting demographics, are alreadyhaving minor effects on educational organizations. Other trends, although barelyemerging, such as changing perspectives, have obvious potential effects on educationalorganizations. How these minor and barely emerging effects will grow to have majorimpacts on educational organizations is investigated and explored. This article alsoconsiders the impacts of each of the ten trends on the practical aspects of educationalstructures. Potential means for addressing the impacts of each trend are provided andexamined as well.
The Road Ahead: Ten Trends That Will ImpactEducation in This Century
ince the mid-1980s many professionals (Deming, 1987;Deming, 2000; Baker, 1992; Lynch & Kordis, 1988; Skrtic,1991; Rader, 1998; Blackbourn, Edmundson, Rose, & Dye,1996; Hamson, Heckman, Lyons, Exterbille & Beerten, 1997; Center & Blackbourn, 1993; Blackbourn, Papasan, Vinson & Blackbourn,2000) have emphasized the need for organizations to:
S
1) recognize that change is a constant,2) identify factors influencing change, and3) develop strategic plans to outline the manner in whichorganizational responses will foster continuous adaptationto change.For the most part, organizations have responded well to thefirst item. However, the ability to develop a strategic plan has often been constricted by a lack of vision on the part of organizationalmembers as to which changes will have significant, fundamental, andlong term impacts.While several professionals (Mann, 1975; Hoyle, 1995) havetaken visionary perspectives, too often organizational vision is limitedto factors of immediate or short-term concern (i.e., changing NCATE
 
J. M. Blackbourn, J. Fullingim, M. A. Kritsonis, J. Campbell, D. Rader & J. Ray
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standards, No Child Left Behind policies, state department of education testing/accreditation benchmarks, and the like). This limitedvision results in “short-term fixes” that may address a single problemfor a brief time; however, limited vision can create many additional problems over the long term (i.e., high-stakes testing designed toimprove instruction and student performance that results in increasedminority dropouts and, consequently, decreased minority diplomas).Reliance upon incidental, rather than fundamental, change willultimately bring about either the demise of an organization or therendering of the organization as irrelevant in the profession (Rader,1998).Many of the issues of the future are unknown and/or unanticipated. The Greeks referred to unknown variables as
 Barbarians
. We currently refer to them as
disruptive innovations
or 
disruptive influences
 —issues that are disruptive to the standardoperating procedures of an organization. Such disruptive innovations(Christensen, 1997; Moore, 1999; Christensen, Raynor, & Anthony,2003), although problematic to organizational effectiveness, provideopportunities for organizational growth and improvement (Schillinger & Blackbourn, 2007). A focus on systems thinking (Senge, 1990),complexity theory, and the development of a visionary perspective(Payne, 2004; Whacker, Taylor, & Means, 2000) are essential for identifying and understanding the trends that are “looming on thehorizon,as well as the nature of their potential effects onorganizations.Marx (2001) identified ten trends that are currently consideredminor issues to educational organizations but will, over time, present problems that will forever change how the profession of educationdoes business. Some of these changes and their influences are obvious.Others are less noticeable, more insidious in their development, and potentially more problematic. All changes are interrelated and willinfluence and impact each other, as well as educational institutions.

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