INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ~ EXPERIMENT: .IN SOVIET STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AN ALTERNATIVE. VIEWfeessesaeie “ CONTENTS 4: NOTE, ... INTRODUCTORY REMARKS . SUMMARY . PART ONE: JUDGMENTS.OF SOVIET STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES UNDERLYING NIFs AND THE SHORTCOMINGS OF - THESE JUDGMENTS .. : 9 : 1. Influence of intelligence gathering techniques 9 2 Implicit judgments about Soviet intemational behavior 10 A. NIE conception of Soviet strategy . 10 7 B. NIE judgments about Soviet strategic objectives . u 8. Critique of these judgments. 18 4, Conclusion .. 16 . PART TWO: A CRITIQUE OF NIE INTERPRETATIONS OF CERTAIN SOVIET STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS: 19 FOREWORD 19 LSoviet Central Strategie Attack Systems 20 Economie Restraints on Soviet Strategic Forces. Soviet Civil Defense . Military Hardening . Mobile Missiles Backfire . Soviet AntiSatellite Testing Soviet Strategic ASW . ABM and Directed Energy R& . Soviet’ Non-Central Nuclear Systems Beexnoanep PART THREE: SOVIET STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES .. . al 1, Political Objectives. . aL 2 Military’ Objectives ay 8. Conclusion .. 46 ANNEX: SOVIET STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES AS PERCEIVED BY THE NIEs, 1962-1975 .. eee 51 Ne . S2\INOBY TVNOLLYN ant’ AY ganooyaay, ES ar_ SOVIET STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES:. AN ‘ALTERNATIVE VIEW SREPORT OF TEAM’B NOTE This document is one part of an expériment in competitive analysis undertaken by the DCI on behalf of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. The views expressed are those’ of the authors and do not represent either coordinated National Intelligence or the views of the Director of Central Intelligence. yi