Baza de modele economice

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1. Tipuri de modele economice................................................................................

3

2. Construirea modelelor.........................................................................................

28

3. Complexitatea modelelor....................................................................................

47

4. Gestiunea modelelor.............................................................................................

68

5. Generatoare de modele.......................................................................................

84 6. Gestiunea seturilor de date............................................................................... 108 7. Gestiunea problemelor de modelare................................................................ 134 8. Tipuri de aplica\u0163ii.................................................................................................. 149 9. Proceduri................................................................................................................ 166 10. Sistem de gestiune a bazelor de modele...................................................... 188 11. Studii de caz......................................................................................................... 202 Anexa 1 \u2013 Lista de variabile definite\u015fi referite \u00een modele............................ 209 Anexa 2 \u2013 Formule de baz\u0103..................................................................................... 213 Anexa 3 \u2013 Lista de acronime\u015fi de proceduri..................................................... 215 Anexa 4 \u2013 Album de grafice................................................................................... 216 Anexa 5 \u2013 Determinarea coeficien\u0163ilor ecua\u0163iei dreptei de regresie

liniar\u0103 prin metoda celor mai mici p\u0103trate.....................................223 Anexa 6 \u2013 Metoda celor mai mici p\u0103trate \u00een dou\u0103 trepte................................ 225 Anexa 7 \u2013 Generator de modele liniare \u2013 secven\u0163e........................................... 227 Anexa 8 \u2013 Generator de modele liniare cu argument \u00eent\u00e2rziat \u2013 secven\u0163e . 235 Bibliografie................................................................................................................. 239

1. TIPURI DE MODELE ECONOMICE

1.1 Modele economice

Studiul cantitativ pentru fenomenele economice presupune

construirea de modele \u00een care apar variabilele independente

\u015fi

variabilele independente

. Modelele economice sunt asociate

unor evolu\u0163ii corespunz\u0103toare intervalelor de timp delimitate prin momentul

ini\u0163ial , respectiv , momentul final .

n

X

X

X

,...,

,2

1

m

Y

Y

Y

,...,

,2

1

0

T

F

T

Datele cu ajutorul c\u0103rora se elaboreaz\u0103 modelele economice sunt

organizate conform tabelului 2.1.

Organizarea datelor economice

Tabel 1.1

Moment de timp

1

X

\u2026 \u2026

2

X

j

X

n

X

1

Y

... \u2026

2

Y

k

Y

m

Y

0

T

01

x

02

x\u2026 \u2026

j

x0

n

x0

01

y

02

y\u2026 \u2026

k

y0

m

y0

1

T

11

x

12

x\u2026 \u2026

j

x1

n

x1

11

y

12

y\u2026 \u2026

k

y1

m

y1

M

M

M

i

T

1

i

x

2

i

x\u2026 \u2026

ij

x

in

x

1

i

y

2

i

y\u2026 \u2026

ik

y

im

y

M

M

M

F

T

1

F

x

2

F

x.. \u2026

Fj

x

Fn

x

1

F

y

2

F

y.. \u2026

Fk

y

Fm

y

S-au notat:

ij

x- nivelul m\u0103surat pentru variabila independent\u0103

la momentul

;

j

X

i

T

ik

y- nivelul m\u0103surat pentru variabila dependent\u0103

la momentul

.

k

Y

i

T

\u00cen modelele economice sunt definite ecua\u0163ii de comportament pentru

factori, ecua\u0163ii tehnice care descriu starea sistemelor, ecua\u0163ii institu\u0163ionale

3

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