<Show: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT> <Date: July 2, 2013> <Time: 18:30:00> <Tran: 070201cb.

118> <Type: SHOW> <Head: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for July 2, 2013, PBS> <Sect: News; International> <Byline: Susie Gharib, Tyler Mathisen, Yousef Gamal El-Din, Diana Olick, Phil LeBeau, Steve Liesman, Mary Thompson> <Guest: Andres Garcia-Amaya, Moshe Orenbuch> <Spec: Economy; Protests; World Affairs; Stock Markets; Trade; Automotive Industry; Business; Energy; Lifestyle; Policies> <Time: 18:30:00>

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Susie Gharib, brought to you by --

(COMMERCIAL AD)

SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Global hot spots. From Cairo, to Istanbul, to Brazil -- turmoil in the streets. In China, Japan and Europe -- economies under stress. What does all this instability mean

for your money?

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: High octane. Why buyers are snapping up new cars and trucks at a pace not seen since before the Great Recession.

GHARIB: And, brain power. If your neighbors consume less energy than you, would you cut back? One company is betting you will and it has to do with the way we think.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Tuesday, July 2nd.

MATHISEN: Good evening, everyone.

The world is watching Egypt tonight. Hundreds of thousands of protesters back in Tahrir Square for a third day. They are calling for the resignation of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, partly over his handling of the economy.

The army has given him a deadline to strike a deal by tomorrow or be pushed aside. But the president has reportedly asked the army to withdraw its ultimatum via Twitter.

The turmoil there today hit markets here. Stocks dipped in the

afternoon as oil prices rose.

From Cairo now, Yousef Gamal El-Din has the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

YOUSEF GAMAL EL-DIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Protesters are in the streets of Cairo and across the country for a third night of demonstration, calling on incumbent President Mohamed Morsi to step down after just one year in power. You can hear the atmosphere behind me. It`s a very tense atmosphere. People are saying "Erhal," Arabic for leave.

But it`s not the opponents of the rally tonight, also supporters of President Morsi are hitting the streets. And that is the key concern, there will be clashes and might be an escalation. As a result, the military is on high alert. They deployed to different parts of the city, tanks, helicopters, you can actually hear one passing by just above me.

Remember that we`re running against the deadline set by the army which expires on Wednesday. Politicians need to figure it out then. If not, then the army would put forward a plan. It`s not clear here what that plan will look like, but we`ll have to just wait and see how it all plays out.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Yousef Gamal El-Din, in Cairo.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: Well, scenes on the ground in Egypt are changing rapidly and it`s not just Egypt that the world is watching. But also the protests in Brazil, the civil war in Syria, the economies of China, Japan and now, political resignations in Portugal.

Does all this pose a big risk to the global economy and your money?

Andres Garcia-Amaya is global market strategist with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Funds and joins us now.

Andres, I`d like to begin with Egypt. Worse case scenario, if president of Egypt, Morsi, does step down and his government collapses, what does this mean for the global economy and what does this mean for American investors?

ANDRES GARCIA-AMAYA, GLOBAL MARKETS STRATEGIST: I think for the global economy, the biggest concern both the global economy and U.S. investor, is what that means for oil prices. Oil prices might in the short term spike based on what happens in Egypt. We have to remember, Egypt provides less than 1 percent of global supply.

So from that prospective, you might see a spike but there are other

players like Saudi Arabia that will open the taps and increase supply. So, I think in the short term, this does create volatility, not only in the oil market, but also in the equity markets here in the United States.

MATHISEN: Andres, when you get this instability in major countries, and Brazil is a major economy. But we also see instability in Istanbul, in Turkey, and now in Egypt, does that change the attitude of investors globally to take on risk?

GARCIA-AMAYA: I think all this is the outcome of a global economy, especially an emerging market that isn`t growing as fast as it used to be. Especially in Brazil, a lot of complaints about corruption. But guess what? Corruption has been around a long time. The issues now that the economy is not growing as fast as they used to.

So, I think this is a result of that. So, sure, it does create some volatility into short term. The good news is that even in places like Brazil, the fact that people are bringing these issues to the forefront does help in the longer term for them to actually have to address it as politicians.

GHARIB: You know, investors have been told for such a long time that the emerging markets is where the growth is and now, you`re seeing the scary headlines of what`s going on in the broad array of countries. So, what are you telling your clients? I mean, what strategic changes, if any,

should investors be doing right now with their portfolios? And on the flip side, are there any opportunities out of all of these crises?

GARCIA-AMAYA: Yes, great question, Susie. And I think you framed it perfectly, because I don`t think this is a time to make strategic changes. When there are -- when there is volatility, when there is uncertainty, I think the key is to stick to the plan.

My biggest concern is that investors will go to cash, which I think by the way is the most risky thing you can do because that`s a sure way of not meeting your goals in the long term to retirement. You cannot get there with 1.7 percent annualized return over the last decade, which is what you got on cash. You have to stay invested. You have to stay the course.

MATHISEN: Let`s look at the second and third largest economies in the world and get your perspectives first on China and what`s going there and then Japan.

GARCIA-AMAYA: Sure. It`s kind of the inverse for both. For China, I think, right now, they`re going to have some short-term pain that`s actually self-inflicted as they try to address some of their credit concerns, credit growth they have had over the last couple years. That`s actually going to help them as an economy in the longer term, not have to address bigger issues down the road.

If you look at Japan, I`m concerned about it in the long-term considering they have a significant amount of leverage at the government level and they`re trying to generate inflation. Don`t know if they`ll get it, which means in the short-term right now, they are benefiting from their efforts but in the longer term, I`m a little bit concerned that they might not meet their target.

GHARIB: All right. Fascinating information. Andres, thank you so much, as always.

GARCIA-AMAYA: No problem.

GHARIB: Andres Garcia-Amaya, he`s global market strategist with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Funds.

Tyler?

MATHISEN: And on Wall Street today, Susie, stocks logged early gains on good news about auto sales, home prices, factory orders in May. But then pop went the rally as traders focused on Egypt`s turmoil and prepared for a shortened trading session tomorrow ahead of the holiday and that big Friday jobs report.

The Dow today off by 42 points, the NASDAQ and S&P each ended about one point lower.

And that worsening political crisis in Egypt, which is not a big oil exporter at all still managed to send crude up $1.61 a barrel, to close at a 14-month high just below the psychologically significant $100 mark.

GHARIB: Well, as Tyler just said, there was more good news about housing in May. Home prices posted their biggest increase in seven years. They rose more than 12 percent according to real estate data provider Core Logic. And the company`s chief executive expects that trend to continue throughout the rest of the summer.

MATHISEN: While the housing market has seen gains nationally, the real estate market in Manhattan really came to life this spring, but there is an increasing divide over what types of homes are selling and who is doing the buying.

Diana Olick with the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Manhattan may be an island but it is not unto itself when it comes to issues now plaguing the U.S. real estate market.

JONATHAN MILLER, MILLER SAMUEL CEO: A big part of the housing

equation is low inventory.

OLICK: Manhattan housing saw its biggest spring since 2007, with sales up 19 percent from a year ago. But inventory was the lowest for the quarter in 13 years. Why? Same story as the rest of the country: negative and near negative equity. Many New Yorkers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth and are stuck in place unable to sell.

MILLER: They may have refinanced, taken out a second mortgage when they bought the home, they may have been able to figure out a way to put a small amount down, smaller than what was the true effect (ph) should knew about.

OLICK: With so little supply, prices moved higher but only for condos which are higher demand. Condo prices up nearly 14 percent from a year ago but they were flat for co-op. The median sale prices for a condo, $1.25 million for a co-op $665,000.

(on camera): While co-op still make three-quarters of the Manhattan market, condos are rising, literally, but since the cost of construction here is so high, developers are targeting the higher-end, that`s your $3 million buyer and up.

LEONARD STEINBERG, DOUGLAS ELLIMAN V.P.: The Manhattan buyer loves condominiums. More of them qualify to buy a condominium than a co-op that

has much more rigged rules about how you can buy, what kind of qualifications you have to have both personally and financially.

OLICK (voice-over): Manhattan real estate has benefited from a huge influx of international cash. Foreign buyers are fueling the condo market paying all cash and buying in some cases, multiple properties.

But Americans are playing on the high-end, too.

STEINBERG: The high-end buyer is looking for everything on the checklist. If you deliver it, they buy it.

OLICK: Thousands of new condo units will hit the market in the next few years, but that will coincide with rising mortgage rates. That could temper general price gains but high-end Manhattan appears to have no limits.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Manhattan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: For more on the Manhattan real estate market, log on to our Web site, NBR.com.

GHARIB: Well, it`s not just the housing market seeing big gains this

year. Auto sales are also in high gear, and show no sign of letting up. They are on pace for sales of nearly 16 million units. This is the most since the year 2007.

Detroit`s Big Three each reported strong gains in sales last month led by smaller fuel efficient cars, pickup trucks, and crossover utility vehicles.

Ford`s sales, for example, rose 13 percent in June. General Motors (NYSE:GM) up 6 1/2 percent. Chrysler sales rose 8 percent.

And Phil LeBeau has been tracking the sales from a Chevy dealership right outside of Chicago.

Phil, you know, we hear so much about pent-up demand that`s driving sales. Everyone says it`s because the average car on the road is so old.

But, really, how much more pent-up demand is left out there?

PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Quite a bit, Susie. You know, I talked to a number of economists who are looking at numbers. The average age for a vehicle on the road for the United States, it still is just under 11 years, and it`s not going to be dropping any time soon. So, there are a lot of people driving old vehicles and think about this, Susie, 20 percent, 20 percent of the vehicles in the United States

are at least 16 years old.

So that pent-up demand is out there.

MATHISEN: You know, Phil LeBeau rates are starting to rise. What about loan rates? Are they going up and what will happen to sales if they do?

LEBEAU: They are ticking up but very slightly, Tyler. At this point, it`s not even an issue. What you`re seeing from the auto loans are a couple things: one, they are expanding at the bottom. So, you`re seeing more subprime loans going out, people who have lower credit records.

It`s not the concern at this point because that`s the natural, healthy expansion of the market that we tend to see as auto sales increase. The other thing that we`re seeing is an increase in a number of leases that are being offered.

Yet, at the end of the day, what the automakers are trying to do is keep the monthly payment under $500 for most buyers. And if they keep it under $400 or under $300, then people will move in to those cars.

But loans at this point, the interest rates, they`re not ticking up.

MATHISEN: You know, the other thing that people are talking about and

worried about is too much enthusiasm for all of this buying. Are auto sales getting too frothy, as they say? Could the industry and could consumers repeat some of the same mistakes back in those pre-recession years?

LEBEAU: I don`t think so, Susie. Almost everybody will tell you, what you`re seeing now -- sales matching demand. And as a result, this is a pretty healthy industry.

MATHISEN: All right. Phil, thank you very much. Phil LeBeau reporting from Chicago for us tonight.

Well, in the meantime, Hyundai sales last month hit a record high for the month of June. But now, the Korean automaker has announced a recall. More than 5,000 late model Azera sedans are being called back to fix a faulty air bag sensor located in the passenger seat. The device could fail to deploy with the appropriate amount of force in a crash.

GHARIB: And two rival automakers are teaming up. General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Honda will develop cars that run on hydrogen cells over the next seven years, hoping to cut costs by sharing design and supplies while speeding up development as automakers raced to meet stricter global emissions rules.

MATHISEN: And still ahead tonight, the Fed gets tough with the big

banks as regional banks hit new highs in the stock market. So which are safer investments?

But, first, a look at how the international market closed today.

(MUSIC)

GHARIB: Some big changes ahead for the nation`s biggest banks. The Federal Reserve approved today a new set of rules requiring banks to increase the amount of capital they keep in reserve. This is to help prevent another financial crisis and any future taxpayer bailouts. The new rules would require banks to raise the minimum capital requirement by an additional $4.5 billion. Most banks are already in compliance and about 100 other banks need to comply, but they have until the year 2019.

The rules are expected to be approved next week by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office Comptroller of the Currency.

MATHISEN: And joining us now to talk more about this, Moshe Orenbuch. He is a banking analyst at Credit Suisse.

Moshe, good to have you with us.

I want to talk about the big banks, specifically, as the Fed and FDIC seem to be targeting those large, quote, "systematically significant banks"

with these new rules and potentially some new tougher leverage ratios down the road.

As these banks get safer, I presume, will they get necessarily smaller and will they still be able to generate profit growth?

MOSHE ORENBUCH, CREDIT SUISSE BANKING ANALYST: So, I think the answer to that is they probably won`t get materially smaller, but it has been a constraint on their ability to grow. In terms of profit growth, we are optimistic that they will be able to generate reasonably good profits and returns.

To some degree, it does depend on where that leverage ratio goes. The higher it goes, the more difficult it will be.

GHARIB: The one thing that most Americans worry about is how safe are these banks. So, you talk about the rules limit their ability to grow. Are these banks, because of these new rules, much safer today?

ORENBUCH: Susie, absolutely. I mean, they are significantly safer because they have reduced the risk inside their loan portfolios, inside their other activities, and their capital levels and liquidity levels are significantly higher.

MATHISEN: Among the class of large banks that you follow, which ones

do you think are best positioned to take advantage, number one, of a new tougher regulatory environment, and number two, of the economic environment that you see?

ORENBUCH: Sure. So, you know, I think that the way I would think about this is that JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has been really able to kind of manage through this and generate a 14 or 15 percent return on capital during this entire process, even last year when it had difficult problems. I think they have been in a pretty good position.

I think the second name that I would mention is Citigroup (NYSE:C) because it derives the bulk of its profits from outside the U.S., and therefore, I think over time has got better growth opportunities.

GHARIB: Moshe, I know you the cover the big money center banks. You really don`t focus as much on the regionals. But -- I don`t want to put you on the spot, but we`ve been seeing a lot of these smaller banks hitting 52-week highs in the stock market.

What`s going on there? What you can tell us generally?

ORENBUCH: So, I think generally what is going on is, because longterm interest rates have risen, there is a feeling that that`s good for banks, because in general, when the difference between short-term and longterm rates is large, that tends to be good for banks.

In this situation, I think you`re going to have to wait until the Fed actually increases short term rates for it to be a positive. And in the interim, it could be a little bit of a negative for banks.

So, I`d be a little bit cautious about the ones who had some of those big runs.

MATHISEN: How important to the health of some of these larger banks is the health of the housing market in the U.S.?

ORENBUCH: So, the housing market is critical. It`s -- you know, it`s the largest financial market in the country and banks finance it, and it`s important to every single one of the banks in slightly different ways, even Citigroup (NYSE:C), you know, which, as I said, derives the bulk of its profits from outside the U.S. has got some pretty big exposures in U.S. housing and will benefit as housing does get better.

GHARIB: Moshe, we have half a minute, just wondering. Earning season is coming next week, what can we expect from the banks, these big banks?

ORENBUCH: So, always, the big banks with capital markets activity, second quarter is little weaker than first quarter. The first part of that was pretty good. And so, I think we hope it won`t be too difficult but, you know, you`re going to see. It`s a grinded out kind of situation where

it`s blocking and tackling, getting your costs down and controlling them, because it`s low-growth environment for the industry broadly.

MATHISEN: Moshe, thank you very much. Moshe Orenbuch, banking analyst with Credit Suisse.

ORENBUCH: And we look to a bank buyout as we turn to market focus for tonight. Capital One will buy back a million dollars worth of common stock after it closes the sale of its Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) private label credit card business in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve OK`d that buyback.

Shares of Capital One touched a new high before closing at $64.24, up 1 percent.

Linn Energy (NASDAQ:LINE), an oil and gas partnership based in Houston, dropped sharply after it said last night that the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating its recent acquisition. At issue here, how Linn was financing that deal and its accounting practices. Linn shares lost more than $6, to $27 and change, plunging almost 19 percent on heavy volume.

MATHISEN: Davita Healthcare, which operates dialysis centers, was downgraded to market performed from out performed by Raymond James after Medicare proposed cutting provider payments more than 9 percent next year. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) notes says investors may pause while dialysis providers

lobby to moderate that Medicare cut.

Davita shares were off nearly 6 percent in the five times the usual trading volume. They closed at $114 on the nose.

Shares of Cree (NASDAQ:CREE), the LED lighting company, also touched a new high today as UBS raised its target on that stock to $65 a share. Just in time to see the stock go past that point at the open. Cree (NASDAQ:CREE) did give back some of the gains during the day but closed above the new target at $66.64. That`s the nearly 4 percent gain. And look at one-year move there, more now 65 percent.

On just a third day in it`s existence as a publicly traded, Noodles and Company jumped again as the Colorado-based casual dining chain sets a record of sorts for underpriced IPOs, and investors lined up for seconds, like the thirds.

Noodles now up 35 percent, just since Friday. Up more than 22 percent today, to close at $47.20.

GHARIB: A setback for Dennis Kozlowski today. A New York court rejected a request for a parole hearing from the former CEO of Tyco. He`s serving a sentence of 8 1/3 to 25 years in prison. He was convicted for orchestrating a $100 million fraud at Tyco.

Kozlowski was best known for throwing a $2 million birthday party for his wife and furnishing his Manhattan apartment with a $6,000 shower curtain and a $15,000 umbrella stand, all paid for with company money.

And coming up in the program, would you pay more for a bike than your first car? Wait until you see the price tag attached with some luxury two wheelers.

But, first, let`s take a look at how commodities, treasuries, and currencies fared today.

(MUSIC)

GHARIB: Here is a case of keeping up with the Joneses and making money in the process. If you found out your neighbor was using less energy than you, would you make changes? Would you use less? Well, one company is betting you will.

Steve Liesman gives us a lesson in behavioral economics.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): Dave Chapman lives 35 miles out of Chicago and he has an unusual morning routine.

DAVID CHAPMAN, OPOWER CUSTOMER: In the morning when I get up, I make coffee and when I`m done with the coffee pot, it comes out and it`s unplugged. And I walk around the house and make sure everything is unplugged.

LIESMAN: But it wasn`t always that way.

CHAPMAN: Well, I really was not aware of my energy use at all.

LIESMAN: What changes is Chapman began receiving bills generated by Opower, a software company based in Arlington, Virginia, that even charged up the president of the United States.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is a model of what we want to be seeing across the country.

LIESMAN: Opower`s utility bills show users not only how much power they suck from the grid every day, but more importantly, how much power their neighbors are using.

The company was founded by young entrepreneurs Daniel Yates and Alex Laskey.

ALEX LASKEY, OPOWER, PRESIDENT & FOUNDER: It comes down to basic

behavioral evolution and psychology. We are essentially herd animals. We do what other people are doing.

My neighbors seem comfortable in their houses and yet, I`m using 35 percent more electricity than they are. There must be something I`m doing wrong.

LIESMAN (on camera): Energy usage data from 50 million homes or half the homes in America comes pouring in to Opower`s headquarters and it`s analyzed down to the kilowatt. But how does this play out in the real world?

(voice-over): This graph shows what happens when Opower`s bills were introduced to the neighborhood.

DANIEL YATES, OPOWER CEO & FOUNDER: And as soon as we launch the program, the savings start to creep up, and this is very typical curb. Typically, we get to between 2 percent and 3 percent steady state savings from the group that`s receiving this information.

LASKEY: To date, we generated more than two terawatt hours of electricity savings. Two terawatt hours is enough to power the city of St. Louis and Salt Lake City combined for a year.

LIESMAN: Certainly enough for David Chapman that recalls the effect

of realizing he was the neighborhood`s energy hog.

CHAPMAN: That`s me here on the gray line. This is my energy efficient neighbors and this is all of my neighbors, and that`s power in my hands.

LIESMAN: For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Steve Liesman.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: Well, one other behavior you can always count on, getting exercise and saving on gas money by riding a bike. But if you haven`t bought a bicycle in awhile, you may find that it could take several months of salary to afford some of the two-wheelers on the market but those bikes are big sellers.

And Mary Thompson looks now at the brisk market for high-end bikes.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARY THOMPSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): For cyclists willing to spend, it is about the bike. Mountain bikers want bigger wheels, racers want lighter frames and all want gears to be state of the art.

DAVE VOLLBACH, BICYCLE HABITAT MANAGER: They want the best of the best.

THOMPSON: Dave Vollbach manages Bike Habitat in New York City. He doesn`t carry a $32,000 limited edition Lamborghini bike. His bread and butter: bikes cost $1,000 to $3,000, though he sees a steady demand for higher end or halo bikes like this S Works Tarmac built by Specialized. It retails for $12,000.

VOLLBACH: We`ll do probably roughly a Halo bike a month in the on season, and during -- even during the off season, we`re taking orders for them.

THOMPSON: For Specialized, designing high-end bikes like the Tarmac, helps its whole line high and low.

KATIE GRUENER, SPECIALIZED BICYCLE COMPONENTS: High end definitely affects lower end because its stakes (ph) claimed the performance level. So you know the performance will trickle through regardless of the price level.

THOMPSON: Performance in the technology behind it, key to driving new sales in the U.S. $6 million bike industry, where an average bike owner will spend $420 on a bike, but an enthusiasts will spent over $1,100.

FRED CLEMENTS, NATIONAL BICYCLE DEALERS ASSOC. EXECUTIVE: People with money and time on their hands who have an ethic towards exercise and fitness, and the baby boom generation still drives a lot of sales in our industry.

THOMPSON: The data bares this out, the nation`s 4,100 independent dealers like Bike Habitat sell more expensive bikes. They account for 15 percent of the unit sales but 52 percent of the dollar total.

(on camera): So what`s next in bikes? Some say electric bikes like this one, retailing for $5,900. Their electric motor gives a little bit more power to the pedal. And industry experts hope this will get more people off the couch, out of their cars and onto their bikes and help drive bike sales forward.

(voice-over): For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Mary Thompson in New York City.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: The Obama administration has just announced that it will delay by one year the Affordable Care Act employer mandate to provide health insurance to workers. Fines for failure to comply will not begin until 2015.

After discussions with business groups, the Treasury Department issuing a notice saying that it is doing so to provide employers with more time to prepare for the transition. They also say it will provide time to adapt to the new reporting systems. But the administration is still asking employers with more than 50 employees to still consider providing insurance for them beginning next year.

GHARIB: And that`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Susie Gharib, thanks so much for watching.

MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen, thanks from me, as well. Have a great evening, everyone. And we`ll see you here tomorrow night.

END

Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post broadcast at http://nbr.com. The program is transcribed by CQRC Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. (c) 2013 CNBC, Inc.

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