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Nightly Business Report - Wednesday July 3 2013

Nightly Business Report - Wednesday July 3 2013

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Tonight on Nightly Business Report, the big June jobs report – the Federal Reserve watches it closely. NBR will look at what a strong or weak number could mean for the economy, markets and fed policy.

Plus, the business community reacts to the delay of a key provision in the Affordable Care Act.
Tonight on Nightly Business Report, the big June jobs report – the Federal Reserve watches it closely. NBR will look at what a strong or weak number could mean for the economy, markets and fed policy.

Plus, the business community reacts to the delay of a key provision in the Affordable Care Act.

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Published by: Nightly Business Report by CNBC on Jul 05, 2013
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<Show: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT><Date: July 3, 2013><Time: 18:30:00><Tran: 070301cb.118><Type: SHOW><Head: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for July 3, 2013, PBS><Sect: News; International><Byline: Susie Gharib, Tyler Mathisen, Yousef Gamal El-Din, Bertha Coombs, Jon Fortt, SteveLiesman, Jane Wells><Guest: Bruce Kasman, Neil Trautwein><Spec: Economy; Employment and Unemployment; Labor; Affordable Care Act; Business;Government; Insurance; Policies; Egypt; Consumers; Energy; Trade; World Affairs><Time: 18:30>ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and SusieGharib, brought to you by --(COMMERCIAL AD)TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Jobs in America.Attention turns to Friday`s employment report, and what a strong or weak number could meanfor the economy, the policy and your investments.
 
SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Mandate delayed. The business community, from restaurants to retailers, react to the delay of a key provision in the newhealthcare law.MATHISEN: And turmoil in Egypt. The unrest there is impacting oil markets here. We`vegot a report here from the center of it all, Cairo.All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Wednesday, July 3rd.GHARIB: Good evening everyone.The job market is looking better tonight, just the kind of encouraging news Americans like tohear as they gear up for barbecues and fireworks.American businesses hired 188,000 workers in June. That was more than expected,according to payroll firm ADP. Now, most of the new hiring came from construction and small businesses. This could be a good sign for the Labor Department`s employment report that comesout on Friday. It`s an important number investors will be watching closely. If it`s strong, itcould impact changes in the Federal Reserve policy, growth in the U.S.economy and the stock market.MATHISEN: And joining us now to talk more about jobs and what he expects from the jobsreport, Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM).Mr. Kasman, welcome. Great of you to have joined us today.What is the kind of number that you`re looking for? We had the ADP report that was a littlehigher than some people thought it might come in.What are you looking for Friday?
 
BRUCE KASMAN, JPMORGAN CHIEF ECONOMIST: We`re looking at 150,000 on the payroll count, and I think that would solidify the message that jobs are continuing to grow here but it`s growing at a slower pace. I think that`s also consistent with an economy that reallyhasn`t shaken out of that 2 percent pace of growth overall. So, we think the economy is sluggish, jobs are OK and it`s going to make the Fed`s decision as it moves towards the September, Ithink, point at which it will think about tapering pretty tough.GHARIB: Bruce, besides the headline number, what else is important in this report? Weknow that each of these employment reports are so critical to Fed policy and to investors, but isthere a key element that you`re going to be looking for?KASMAN: Well, there`s always a lot of stuff. I think, first and foremost, beyond the jobcount is unemployment rate and looking at the unemployment rate from the point of view of jobsversus labor supply. We are certainly hoping that there is better news again after last month`sreport on labor supply that keeps stealing their work and entering the work force.I think after that you want to look at the composition. We had a weak service sector surveyfrom the ISM today. We want to see that service sector jobs, which have a been a bright spotthis year continue to hold up that would be a concern if it didn`t. And then I think you look atthe income side, which is important, see how the labor income, has to do with the workweek, ithas to do with wage number alongside the job gains.MATHISEN: You know, Bruce, a moment ago, you said that your prediction was 150,000 payroll jobs added in the most recent month and that that would make it very difficult for the Fedto begin pulling back from the stimulus in September. I don`t mean to put words in your mouth,I`m of then accused of doing that better than anything else I do, but I assume that`s a kind of Goldilocks number then -- not too hot, not too cold, that would be good news for the stock market.KASMAN: I think, generally speaking, yes, although I don`t try to be too precise inunderstanding where the market is going. You know, I think 150,000 is an OK number. It`s not where we want to be. It`s not where the Fed wants us to be, but it`s certainly not the slipping we saw in both the spring of 2011 and 2012, where it did look like business was pulling back.

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