Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Explaining the Crackdown on Anti-China Protesters (1) Carlyle A. Thayer June 5, 2013

[client name deleted] I covered the protest in Hanoi on Sunday and I noticed a lot more aggression from the undercover police. There are photos now on Facebook of one protester who was beaten outside Loc Ha detention centre. Do you think this marks an increase of heavy-handed tactics against the protesters? If so, for what purpose? ANSWER: It seems clear to me that Vietnam's treatment of bloggers and anti-China protesters has more to do with in-fighting among the party elite than Vietnam's standard knee jerk reaction to any sign of public protest or challenge to the regime's authority. Several dynamics seem to be at play. First, as the National Assembly approaches its historic vote of confidence on ministers and other high officials, some ministers are posturing in order to secure a good result. Second, the party has yet to conclude its criticism and self-criticism campaign. This has resulted in stronger action against bloggers and anti-China protesters. No one wants to appear lax on the "threat of peaceful evolution front." As you will note from Vietnamese press coverage of Prime Minister's Nguyen Tan Dung's performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue [at which I was present], Vietnam is walking on egg shells in order not to offend China. The Prime Ministers point blank refused to respond in any meaningful way to two questions: did Vietnam support the Philippines' claim to the Arbitral Tribunal and, from a female Chinese General, what specific examples can he (PM Dung) provide that China is interfering with freedom of navigation? Prime Minister Dung is on the ascendant and has the support of the Ministry of Public Security. Dung wants to be in control of both the domestic and foreign policy fronts. He has fended off his detractors and is looking to win a commanding vote of confidence in the National Assembly. Recall that last year he promised to deal with the bloggers. There is a ray of hope that China and ASEAN will start discussions on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. No one wants to upset the diplomatic apple cart at this stage. Even Philippines Secretary of Defense Voltaire Gazmin did not mention the West Philippines Sea in his presentation to the Shangri-La Dialogue. He was mainly motivated to keep the Philippines claim to the UN Arbitral Tribunal low key.

2 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Explaining the Crackdown on AntiChina Protesters (1), Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 5, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Explaining the Crackdown on Anti-China Protesters (2) Carlyle A. Thayer June 18, 2013

[client name deleted] We are preparing a report on the increasing numbers of bloggers being arrested for "abusing democratic freedoms" in Vietnam. When discussing the treatment of anti-China protesters earlier this month you wrote: "It seems clear to me that Vietnam's treatment of bloggers and anti-China protesters has more to do with in-fighting among the party elite than Vietnam's standard knee jerk reaction to any sign of public protest or challenge to the regime's authority." As a result of recent events over the last couple of weeks do you still stand by this assessment? ANSWER: This assessment still stands but some elaboration is necessary. The Vietnamese regime will suppress direct challenges to its authority. The regime restricts anti-China protests and commentary as a normal everyday affair. But what accounts for the rise in arrests of bloggers? The most recent cases are in part related to the visit of President Truong Tan Sang to China. Arrests of China critics sets the right atmospherics for his state visit. More importantly, party in-fighting revolves around who is a strong leader that can defend Vietnam's interests. All factions have an interest in suppressing criticism by bloggers that relates to internal politics and leadership questions. There is an ongoing debate about how to calibrate relations with both China and the United States. How much should Vietnam seek to cooperate with Washington and Beijing, and how strongly should Hanoi stand up to Beijing and Washington when Vietnam's interests are affected? It is clear that attempts to negotiate a strategic partnership with the US have foundered. Those who have favoured cooperation with the US are being criticised on the grounds that Vietnam is getting little in return except criticism for its human rights record. Vietnam has been trying to entice a visit from Secretary of State John Kerry and President Obama at the same time it has pressed for a highlevel visit to Washington. A high-level US visit would have balanced President Sang's visit to China. Sang's visit has been under consideration for over a year. Those inside the party pushing for closer relations with China in order to obtain assurances that force will not be used in the South China Sea have, in my opinion, supported the

2 crackdown on bloggers as a means of undermining if not sabotaging efforts to shore up relations with the United States.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Explaining the Crackdown on AntiChina Protesters (2) , Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 18, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Hot Domestic Issues and Political In-Fighting Carlyle A. Thayer June 5, 2013

[client name deleted] We request your assessment of the following issues: 1- Do you feel the Vietnamese government's grip on power is really under threat, or is it more a perceived threat on their part? And if so, what has caused this weakening of power? ANSWER: The Vietnamese one-party regime is not under imminent threat of a "Vietnamese Spring." But there is intense in-fighting among the elite. It surfaced last year at the October party plenum when a majority of the Politburo attempted to discipline Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung for his handling of the economy and failure to curb corruption. When the recommendation was put to the Central Committee Dung romped in and didn't even get a slap on the wrist. The Central Committee issued a statement saying that hostile external forces were trying to create disunity in the party. Vietnam's political elite feel especially embattled because bloggers have taken to criticizing individuals - the party Secretary General, the Prime Minster and the state President - directly. Conspiracy theories are flying about planted leaks by one camp to undermine the other. Internal party disunity is affecting governance. This will intensify now that the recent party Central Committee plenum has begun planning for leadership selection at the next national congress due to be held in 2016. 2- Is the public's anger at corruption and economic mismanagement likely to fuel substantial reform? Would powerful people have a lot to lose if reforms are enacted? ANSWER: There are elements within the party who are both sympathetic to the public outcry and responsive to it. But as we witnessed last year when banker Nguyen Duc Kien was arrested it appeared that the anti-corruption campaign was being used to target members of Nguyen Tan Dung's network of supporters. During his first term in office PM Dung set up the Anti-Corruption Steering Board. It got nowhere. During his second term his detractors unseated him as Chair of the Steering Committee. The party Secretary General took over and appointed the former mayor of Da Nang , Dinh Ba Thanh, to head an internal party commission on corruption that reported directly to the party Secretary General. At the last party

2 plenum Thanh failed to get elected to the Politburo. Real efforts to eliminate large scale-corruption would touch too many raw nerves so anti-corruption reform has stalled. 3- How big a role are bloggers playing in driving this dissent, and how are they able to make their voices heard (unlike China, for example, where dissent seems to be largely nipped in the bud)? ANSWER: The bloggers are both reflecting popular dissent and driving it. Certain bloggers have acquired a reputation and a following. They are able to make their voices heard because Vietnam has a high Internet penetration rate, an estimated thirty percent of the population has access. Blogging is pervasive. The smart political elite open their iPods or computer tablets at breakfast to find out what is going on, they read the party newspaper later. The ordinary citizen who has a grievance usually writes a letter or petition of denunciation to the appropriate government body and does not use the internet. On occasion ordinary citizens protest in public with hand held placards. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Hot Domestic Issues and Political InFighting, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 5, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Prominent Dissident On Hunger Strike Carlyle A. Thayer June 18, 2013

[client name deleted] Last night it was reported that Dr. Cu Huy Ha Vu' has begun a prison hunger strike. See: http://www.amnesty.org/fr/library/asset/ASA41/002/2013/fr/f6348805-04c543f0-8053-8e4e0af72a1e/asa410022013en.html Dr. Vu's wife said yesterday that he's protesting against poor treatment in prison (rather than, say, making a political statement against the party's leadership). We request your assessment on the strike's larger, symbolic implications, especially in light of the recent no confidence vote in the National Assembly and intensifying crackdown on bloggers. In other words, what does this hunger strike -- by the son of a revolutionary poet who has sued the prime minister -- show us about Vietnam today? And how do you think the party elite may view Dr. Vu's situation? I' ANSWER: Cu Huy Ha Vu's hunger strike comes amidst a continuing crackdown on bloggers in Vietnam. Dr. Ha Vus hunger strike has attracted significant attention not only in Vietnam but in the United States and Europe by those who closely follow developments in Vietnam. Dr. Ha Vu's hunger strike is in response to his treatment in prison. Nevertheless, the publicity surrounding his hunger strike has served to rekindle interest in his unjust imprisonment for peacefully expressing his views including his high-profile attempt to take legal action against the prime minister. Dr. Ha Vu's case is an illustration of the counter-productive policies of the Vietnamese communist regime that seek to intimidate and silence critics. Dr. Ha Vu's revolutionary background only serves to undermine the legitimacy of the communist regime. He cannot be dismissed as an agent of the "plot of peaceful evolution" by hostile external forces acting in conjunction with political reactionaries in Vietnam. In sum, patriotic youth and members of revolutionary families are lumped together by the regime and subject to repression. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung pledged last year to crackdown on bloggers. That is about the only promise he has kept. His recent poor showing in the National Assembly's confidence vote undermines his credibility. Dr. Ha Vu's hunger strike puts the onus on the government to conduct a credible investigation into his complaints and to take remedial action. No matter what actions the government takes it will be criticised by bloggers thus amplifying the plight of Vietnam's new class of political

2 prisoners. Once again this demonstrates the counterproductive nature of repression in Vietnam. In the long term Vietnam's inability to accommodate peaceful protest by its political elite could produce fissures within the ruling party.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Prominent Dissident On Hunger Strike, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 18, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.