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Thwarted Innovation
 What Happened to e-learning and Why
 by Robert Zemsky and William F. Massy
 A Final Report for
The Weatherstation Project 
of The Learning Alliance atthe University of Pennsylvaniain cooperation with the Thomson Corporation 
copyright © 2004 by The Learning Alliance at the University of Pennsyvlania
 A Learning Alliance Report
 
Thwarted Innovation •••••••••••••••Page ifc
 
Table of Contents
iiAcknowledgementsiiiReport Summary1Introduction
4Where’s the Data?5What’s the Concept?
7Chapter 1: The Dynamics of Innovation
7Utterback and the Emergence of a Dominant Design 9Innovation’s S-Curve10e-learning’s Adoption Cycles12Framing Questions
13Chapter 2: Plausible and Implausible Measurement
13From Example to Projection 14Surveying the Terrain 17The Measurement Challenge
18Chapter 3: A New Measurement Strategy
18Campus
Weatherstations 
and the Interview Process20Two False Starts20The
Weatherstation 
Protocol
22Chapter 4: First Findings
22Tracking e-learning’s Four Adoption Cycles26Attitudes and Expectations28An Interpretative Frame29Shifting Institutional Priorities30Faculty vs. Administrative Volatility31Making Sense of a Mosaic
33Chapter 5: The Corporate Market for e-Learning
33The Shape of the Provider Market37Tracking the Corporate Market40Googling the Market42Do We Have a Market Tracker?
44Chapter 6: e-learning’s Troubling Assumptions
44Assumption 1: “If we build it, they will come.”48Assumption 2: “The kids will take to e-learning like ducks to water.”52Assumption 3: “E-learning will force a change in how we teach.”
54A Fourth Assumption
56Conclusion: What’s Next?
57Contextual Changes58Technological Changes59Market Conditions59Three Practical Steps to Start the Process60Not the End of the Story
61Appendices
of 00

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