Professional Documents
Culture Documents
real-world experience
as applied to CO2
Christopher C. Horner
May 2009
Thomas Jefferson on Global Warming
“Snows are less frequent and less deep.
They do not often lie, below the
mountains, more than one, two, or
three days, and very rarely a week.
They are remembered to have been
formerly frequent, deep, and of long
continuance. The elderly inform me
the earth used to be covered with
snow about three months in every
year. The rivers, which then seldom
failed to freeze over in the course of
CO2 rising
Temperatures but global
(USA) & CO2 temps
1895 to falling
2008
Eight years: Bush’s presidency of
calamitous warming, vs. models
$800 DWL
Avoid the trap:
All schemes are climatically meaningless, and
There’s only one assessment that matters…
The objective is to cause your electricity
It’s axiomatic…It’s the Point!
Not some side effect that they’re working on
Cartelization, and
Central planning
48.1 Gt/yr
+21.2 Gt/yr
Energy Emissions, Gt CO2/year
(+78%)
-34.6 GT/yr
(-72%)
27.0 Gt/yr
-13.5 Gt/yr
(-50%)
13.5 Gt/yr
Illustrative scenarios based on the CCSP MiniCAM reference scenario. Categories may not match exactly with other aggregations. Growth rates for the
appropriate aggregate regions were used as proxies for growth rates in these individual countries. This is one illustrative scenario: other scenarios would have
different emissions growth rates over the century. Results should be taken as illustrative of potential trends rather than as a best guess projection of the
future. 41
Energy CO2 Emissions Reductions Needed in 2050 to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global
Emissions Below 2005 (not 1990) if Developed ME Achieve a 100% Reduction:
Annual Gigaton CO2 Reduction and Percent Reduction from 2050 Reference*
2050 Reference:
31.4 Gt
2005: 27.0 Gt
2005: 14.0 Gt
2005: 12.9 Gt
0.20 20
Gt CO2/yr
0.15
0.10 15
Gt CO2/yr
0.05
0.00 10
Today 2020
0
Today 2020 2050 2100
Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv) MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a).
Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental
Research. 46
Global 100-Year GHG Mitigations (GtCO2) by
CCTP Goal
CCTP Strategic Goal Very High High Medium Low
Constraint Constraint Constraint Constraint
Goal #1:
Reduce Emissions from Energy 920 – 990 700 – 770 550 - 620 400 - 510
End Use and Infrastructure
Goal #2:
Reduce Emissions from Energy 660 – 1,210 400 – 770 290 – 510 110 – 290
Supply
Goal #3:
Capture and Sequester Carbon 550 – 1,210 180 – 510 110 – 260 70 – 150
Dioxide
Goal #4:
Reduce Emissions of Non-CO2 587 – 620 510 – 550 440 – 480 330 – 370
GHGs
Estimated cumulative GHG emissions mitigation (GtCO2) from accelerated adoption of advanced
technologies over the 21st century, by strategic goal, across a range of hypothesized GHG
emissions constraints.
Source: Clarke, L., M. Wise, M. Placet, C. Izaurralde, J. Lurz, S. Kim, S. Smith, and A. Thomson. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced
Technology Scenarios. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
47
So who are the IPCC ‘2,000
world’s leading scientists’ doing
such things?
• That’s the rhetorical device “appeal to authority” (vs. making
one’s case)
Greens said: