B! KHOA H"C V CNG NGH!

TR!"NG #$I H%C KHOA H%C T& NHIN

CH!"NG TRNH KHCN C#P NH N!$C KC08/06-10

BO CO T!NG H"P
K#T QU$ KHOA H%C CNG NGH& '( TI
NGHIN C!U TC "#NG C$A BI%N "&I KH H'U TON C(U "%N CC
Y!U T" V HI#N T$%NG KH H!U C"C #OAN $ VI%T NAM,
KH! N"NG D# BO V GI!I PHP CHI$N L%&C 'NG PH

M S): KC08.29/06-10

C* quan ch+ tr ,- ti:

Ch+ nhi.m ,- ti:

Tr!"ng #$i h%c Khoa h%c T& nhin,

!"i h#c Qu$c gia H N%i
PGS. TS. Phan V/n Tn

H N!i 2010

B! KHOA H"C V CNG NGH#

TR!"NG #$I H%C KHOA H%C T& NHIN

CH!"NG TRNH KHCN C#P NH N!$C KC08/06-10

BO CO T!NG H"P
K#T QU$ KHOA H%C CNG NGH& '( TI
NGHIN C!U TC "#NG C$A BI%N "&I KH H'U TON C(U "%N
CC Y!U T" V HI!N T"#NG KH H$U C%C &OAN ' VI!T NAM,
KH! N"NG D# BO V GI!I PHP CHI$N L%&C 'NG PH

M S): KC08.29/06-10

Ch+ nhi.m ,- ti

C* quan ch+ tr ,- ti
TR!"NG #HKHTN H N$I

PGS. TS. Phan V!n Tn

PGS. TS. Bi Duy Cam

Ban ch+ nhi.m ch0*ng trnh

B1 Khoa h2c v Cng ngh.

H N!i 2010
2

M!C L!C
M"C L"C ...................................................................................................................... 3!
DANH M"C CC K HI#U VI$T T%T....................................................................... 7!
DANH M"C B&NG BI'U .......................................................................................... 11!
DANH M"C HNH V( ............................................................................................... 13!
M) *+U ...................................................................................................................... 22!
CH,-NG 1. T.NG QUAN ........................................................................................ 26!
1.1 B/ng ch0ng v1 s2 bi3n 45i c6a cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan ................................. 26!
1.2 V;n 41 d2 bo ma cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan ................................................... 31!
1.2.1 Ph8<ng php th=ng k .......................................................................................................... 33!
1.2.2 Ph8<ng php m hnh 4!ng l2c ............................................................................................ 35!

1.3 M ph>ng kh h:u v d2 tnh cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan b/ng cc m hnh 4!ng
l2c ............................................................................................................................ 37!
1.4 V;n 41 d tm xoy bo ................................................................................................. 43!
1.5 M!t s= thnh t2u nghin c0u bi3n 45i kh h:u ? trong n8@c ......................................... 45!
1.6 Nh:n xt chung .............................................................................................................. 47!
CH,-NG 2. PH,-NG PHP NGHIN CAU V SB LI#U ................................... 50!
2.1 *=i t89ng v phCm vi nghin c0u ................................................................................. 50!
2.1.1 Khi ni7m v1 y3u t= v hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan .......................................................... 50!
2.1.2 L2a chDn y3u t= v hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan trong phCm vi 41 ti................................ 51!
2.1.3 PhCm vi khng gian v thEi gian nghin c0u ....................................................................... 55!

2.2 Cc nguFn s= li7u 489c sG dHng .................................................................................... 56!

2.2.1 S= li7u quan trIc tJ mCng l8@i trCm kh t89ng Vi7t Nam .................................................... 56!
2.2.2 S= li7u bo, ATN* ............................................................................................................... 57!
2.2.3 S= li7u cc chK s= kh h:u ..................................................................................................... 58!
2.2.4 S= li7u quan trIc ton cLu trn l8@i ...................................................................................... 60!
2.2.5 S= li7u 4i1u ki7n bin cho cc m hnh khu v2c .................................................................. 61!
2.2.6 Cc loCi s= li7u khc ............................................................................................................. 61!

2.3 Ph8<ng php kiMm tra ch;t l89ng v xG l s= li7u quan trIc ......................................... 62!
2.4 Ph8<ng php 4nh gi s2 bi3n 45i c6a ECE v tc 4!ng c6a B*KH ton cLu ............. 65!
2.4.1 *nh gi m0c 4!, tnh ch;t v xu th3 bi3n 45i c6a ECE ...................................................... 65!
2.4.2 *nh gi tc 4!ng c6a B*KH ton cLu 43n s2 bi3n 45i c6a ECE ....................................... 70!

2.5 Ph8<ng php th=ng k d2 bo ma ECE ....................................................................... 71!

2.6 Ph8<ng php m ph>ng v d2 tnh ECE b/ng cc RCM .............................................. 72!
2.6.1 Ph8<ng php xc 4Nnh ECE_IPCC tJ sOn phPm RCM (PA1) .............................................. 73!
2.6.2 Ph8<ng php xc 4Nnh ECE_VN tJ sOn phPm RCM (PA2) ................................................. 74!
2.6.3 Ph8<ng php hi7u chKnh chK tiu xc 4Nnh cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan tJ sOn phPm
RCM ................................................................................................................................. 77!
2.6.4 Ph8<ng php xc 4Nnh bo v ATN* tJ sOn phPm c6a RCM .............................................. 78!

2.7 Ph8<ng php 4!ng l2c d2 bo hCn ma ECE ................................................................ 80!

2.8 Cc ph8<ng php 4nh gi............................................................................................. 81!
2.8.1 ChK s= 4nh gi cho cc bi3n lin tHc ................................................................................... 82!
2.8.2 ChK s= 4nh gi cho cc bi3n phn hCng (hay cc pha) ........................................................ 85!
2.8.3 BiMu 4F tin c:y ...................................................................................................................... 87!

CH,-NG 3. NGHIN CAU LQA CHRN CC M HNH KH HSU KHU VQC

*' M PHTNG, DQ BO V DQ TNH *IUU KI#N KH HSU CQC
*OAN ) VI#T NAM ....................................................................................... 89!
3.1 LNch sG pht triMn cc m hnh kh h:u .......................................................................... 89!
3.2 Cc m hnh kh h:u ton cLu v 0ng dHng trong nghin c0u kh h:u.......................... 90!
3.3 Cc m hnh kh h:u khu v2c v 0ng dHng trong nghin c0u kh h:u .......................... 92!
3

3.4 KhO nVng 0ng dHng cc m hnh kh h:u khu v2c trong m ph>ng kh h:u hCn vJa, hCn
di............................................................................................................................. 95!
3.4.1 V1 vi7c l2a chDn mi1n tnh, 4i1u ki7n ban 4Lu v 4i1u ki7n bin ........................................ 95!
3.4.2 *! phn giOi c6a m hnh ..................................................................................................... 96!
3.4.3 V1 cc s< 4F tham s= ha cc qu trnh v:t lW...................................................................... 97!

3.5 KhO nVng 0ng dHng cc m hnh kh h:u khu v2c vo d2 bo hCn ma ..................... 101!
3.6 KhO nVng 0ng dHng cc m hnh kh h:u khu v2c trong vi7c d2 tnh kh h:u t8<ng lai
cho Vi7t Nam ......................................................................................................... 102!
3.7 V;n 41 m ph>ng, d2 bo v d2 tnh 4i1u ki7n kh h:u c2c 4oan b/ng cc m hnh kh
h:u khu v2c ............................................................................................................ 103!
3.8 L2a chDn cc m hnh kh h:u khu v2c c khO nVng 0ng dHng trong 4i1u ki7n Vi7t
Nam ........................................................................................................................ 103!
3.9 C< s? lW thuy3t m hnh RegCM ................................................................................. 104!
3.9.1 LNch sG pht triMn ................................................................................................................ 104!
3.9.2 H7 ph8<ng trnh c< bOn ...................................................................................................... 106!
3.9.3 *i1u ki7n ban 4Lu v 4i1u ki7n bin................................................................................... 108!
3.9.4 Cc s< 4F tham s= ha v:t lW .............................................................................................. 110!

3.10 C< s? lW thuy3t m hnh REMO ................................................................................ 117!

3.10.1 LNch sG pht triMn .............................................................................................................. 117!
3.10.2 *!ng l2c hDc .................................................................................................................... 118!
3.10.3 Tham s= ha v:t lW............................................................................................................ 122!
3.10.4 C;u trc v 4Nnh dCng s= li7u ........................................................................................... 123!

3.11 C< s? lW thuy3t m hnh MM5CL ............................................................................. 125!

3.11.1 Gi@i thi7u chung ............................................................................................................... 125!
3.11.2 *!ng l2c hDc v cc s< 4F tham s= ha v:t lW ................................................................. 127!
3.11.3 *i1u ki7n bin .................................................................................................................. 134!
3.11.4 V;n 41 l8@i lFng .............................................................................................................. 135!
3.11.5 V;n 41 4Fng ha s= li7u b=n chi1u (FDDA) .................................................................... 136!

3.12 H7 th=ng m hnh k3t h9p CAM-SOM ..................................................................... 138!

3.12.1 Gi@i thi7u chung ............................................................................................................... 138!
3.12.2 LNch sG cc th3 h7 m hnh tr8@c CAM 3.0 ..................................................................... 140!
3.12.3 M hnh CAM 3.0 ............................................................................................................ 141!
3.12.4 M hnh SOM ................................................................................................................... 145!

CH,-NG 4. SQ BI$N *.I CXA CC Y$U TB V HI#N T,YNG KH HSU

CQC *OAN ) VI#T NAM D,ZI TC *[NG CXA BI$N *.I KH HSU
TON C+U .................................................................................................... 146!
4.1 S2 bi3n 45i c6a cc y3u t= kh h:u c2c 4oan ............................................................... 146!
4.1.1 V1 m0c 4! v tnh ch;t bi3n 45i ......................................................................................... 146!
4.1.2 V1 xu th3 bi3n 45i ............................................................................................................... 153!

4.2 S2 bi3n 45i c6a cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan........................................................ 160!
4.2.1 V1 m0c 4! v tnh ch;t bi3n 45i ......................................................................................... 160!
4.2.2 V1 xu th3 bi3n 45i ............................................................................................................... 179!

4.3 V1 tc 4!ng c6a B*KH ton cLu ................................................................................. 182!

4.3.1 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a Tx .................................................................................. 182!
4.3.2 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a Tm ................................................................................. 183!
4.3.3 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a Rx .................................................................................. 185!
4.3.4 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a hi7n t89ng ML .............................................................. 185!
4.3.5 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a hi7n t89ng NN............................................................... 186!
4.3.6 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a hi7n t89ng RD ............................................................... 186!
4.3.7 Tc 4!ng 4=i v@i s2 bi3n 45i c6a bo-ATND .................................................................... 187!

4.4 Nh:n 4Nnh chung .......................................................................................................... 188!

CH,-NG 5. PH,-NG PHP THBNG K DQ BO H\N MA CC Y$U TB

V HI#N T,YNG KH HSU CQC *OAN ) VI#T NAM ......................... 191!
5.1 M? 4Lu ......................................................................................................................... 191!
5.2 C< s? lW thuy3t ............................................................................................................. 193!
5.2.1 HFi quy tuy3n tnh 4a bi3n REG ........................................................................................ 194!
5.2.2 MCng thLn kinh nhn tCo ANN........................................................................................... 195!
5.2.3 Phn tch ring bi7t Fisher (FDA) ...................................................................................... 196!

5.3 Cc b8@c th2c hi7n ...................................................................................................... 198!

5.3.1 *]t bi ton ......................................................................................................................... 198!
5.3.2 Y3u t= d2 bo ..................................................................................................................... 199!
5.3.3 Nhn t= d2 bo ................................................................................................................... 200!
5.3.4 Xy d2ng cc ph8<ng trnh d2 bo ................................................................................... 202!
5.3.5 Ph8<ng php 4nh gi ........................................................................................................ 204!

5.4 K3t quO tnh ton, phn tch v 4nh gi...................................................................... 205!
5.4.1 TuyMn chDn nhn t= d2 bo ................................................................................................ 205!
5.4.2 D2 bo nhi7t 4! c2c trN ....................................................................................................... 208!
5.4.3. D2 bo s= 49t m8a l@n ...................................................................................................... 215!
5.4.4. D2 bo s= 49t khng kh lCnh ............................................................................................ 218!
5.4.5. D2 bo khO nVng xu;t hi7n nIng nng v rt 4:m ............................................................ 219!
5.4.6. D2 bo BVN v BBD ........................................................................................................ 223!

5.5 Nh:n xt chung ............................................................................................................ 224!

CH,-NG 6. ANG D"NG CC M HNH KH HSU KHU VQC *' M PHTNG

*IUU KI#N KH HSU CQC *OAN ) VI#T NAM .................................... 225!
6.1 ThG nghi7m 4! nhCy c6a m hnh 4=i v@i mi1n tnh v 4! phn giOi ......................... 226!
6.1.1 *! nhCy 4=i v@i mi1n tnh (TN1) ....................................................................................... 227!
6.1.2 *! nhCy 4=i v@i 4! phn giOi (TN2) .................................................................................. 236!

6.2 ThG nghi7m 4! nhCy c6a m hnh 4=i v@i s< 4F tham s= ha v:t l ............................ 239!
6.3 Phn tch l2a chDn mi1n tnh, 4! phn giOi v s< 4F tham s= ha ............................... 244!
6.4 M ph>ng kh h:u khu v2c Vi7t Nam b/ng cc RCM ................................................ 245!
6.4.1 M hnh RegCM3 ............................................................................................................... 245!
6.4.2 M hnh REMO .................................................................................................................. 249!
6.4.3 M hnh MM5CL ............................................................................................................... 262!

6.5 M ph>ng ECE ? Vi7t Nam b/ng cc RCM................................................................ 270!

6.5.1 M hnh RegCM ................................................................................................................. 272!
6.5.2 M hnh REMO .................................................................................................................. 277!
6.5.3 M hnh MM5CL ............................................................................................................... 281!
6.5.4 *nh gi chung k3t quO m ph>ng ECE c6a cc m hnh ................................................. 285!

6.6 V1 m ph>ng bo-XTN* b/ng cc RCM ................................................................... 288!

CH,-NG 7. ANG D"NG M HNH KH HSU KHU VQC DQ BO H\N MA

*IUU KI#N KH HSU CQC *OAN ) VI#T NAM .................................... 291!
7.1 K3t quO d2 bo cc tr8Eng ton cLu b/ng h7 th=ng CAM-SOM ................................. 291!
7.1.1 *nh gi 4Nnh tnh ............................................................................................................. 291!
7.1.2 *nh gi khch quan .......................................................................................................... 292!

7.2. D2 bo cc chK s= KHC* b/ng cc m hnh kh h:u khu v2c ................................... 295!
7.2.1 K3t quO d2 bo cc ECE_IPCC .......................................................................................... 297!
7.2.2 K3t quO d2 bo cc ECE_VN ............................................................................................. 300!

7.3 *nh gi chung ............................................................................................................ 303!

CH,-NG 8. ANG D"NG M HNH KH HSU KHU VQC DQ TNH *IUU KI#N
KH HSU CQC *OAN ) VI#T NAM TRONG N^A *+U TH$ K_ 21 ... 307!
8.1 K3t quO d2 tnh b/ng m hnh RegCM ........................................................................ 307!
8.1.1 Cc chK s= ECE_IPCC ........................................................................................................ 307!

8.1.2 K3t quO d2 tnh cc ECE_VN ............................................................................................. 313!

8.2 K3t quO d2 tnh b/ng m hnh REMO ......................................................................... 319!

8.2.1 K3t quO d2 tnh cc ECE_IPCC ......................................................................................... 319!
8.2.2. K3t quO d2 tnh cc ECE_VN ............................................................................................ 324!

8.3. K3t quO d2 tnh b/ng m hnh MM5CL ..................................................................... 329!

8.3.1. K3t quO d2 tnh cc ECE_IPCC ........................................................................................ 329!
8.3.2. K3t quO d2 tnh cc ECE_VN ............................................................................................ 333!

8.4. KNch bOn bi3n 45i c6a cc y3u t= v hi7n t89ng KHC* ? Vi7t Nam ......................... 337!
8.4.1. S2 bi3n 45i c6a cc ECE theo kNch bOn A1B .................................................................... 337!
8.4.2. S2 bi3n 45i c6a cc ECE theo kNch bOn A2 ....................................................................... 340!

CH,-NG 9. GI&I PHP CHI$N L,YC ANG PH VZI CC HI#N T,YNG KH

HSU CQC *OAN ) VI#T NAM .................................................................. 343!
9.1 M? 4Lu ......................................................................................................................... 343!
9.2 Nh:n th0c v 4Nnh ngh`a .............................................................................................. 345!
9.2.1 Nh:n th0c ........................................................................................................................... 345!
9.2.2 *Nnh ngh`a .......................................................................................................................... 345!

9.3 *]c 4iMm v tnh ch;t c6a bi3n 4!ng kh h:u v cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan .... 346!
9.4 Khung chnh sch thch 0ng v@i B*KH ...................................................................... 347!
9.5 Phn loCi cc giOi php thch 0ng ................................................................................ 348!
9.6 Cc giOi php thch 0ng v@i bi3n 45i kh h:u v cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan 4
489c triMn khai ? m!t s= n8@c trn th3 gi@i ........................................................... 349!
9.6.1 Cc giOi php chi3n l89c chung .......................................................................................... 349!
9.6.2 Cc giOi php thch 0ng 4=i v@i cc l`nh v2c ..................................................................... 349!

9.7 Tc 4!ng v khO nVng t5n hCi do bi3n 4!ng kh h:u cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan
4=i v@i cc l`nh v2c................................................................................................ 351!
9.7.1 Tm tIt k3t quO nghin c0u v1 bi3n 45i c6a cc y3u t= c2c trN v hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c
4oan ? Vi7t Nam (ch8a xt 43n bi3n 45i c2c trN c6a n8@c biMn dng) ........................... 351!
9.7.2 Tc 4!ng v khO nVng t5n hCi do bi3n 4!ng kh h:u v cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan 43n
cc l`nh v2c nhCy cOm .................................................................................................... 352!
9.7.3 Tc 4!ng v khO nVng t5n hCi do bi3n 4!ng kh h:u v cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan 43n
cc khu v2c 4Na lW nhCy cOm .......................................................................................... 354!

9.8 L2a chDn v khuy3n nghN cc giOi php thch 0ng v@i bi3n 4!ng kh h:u v cc hi7n
t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan .......................................................................................... 363!
9.8.1 T5ng h9p cc giOi php thch 0ng trong cc l`nh v2c ........................................................ 363!
9.8.2 L2a chDn v khuy3n nghN cc giOi php chi3n l89c thch 0ng ........................................... 365!

9.9 L2a chDn cc giOi php chi3n l89c thch 0ng v@i B*KH v cc hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c
4oan 4=i v@i cc khu v2c nhCy cOm ....................................................................... 368!
9.9.1 Cc giOi php chi3n l89c thch 0ng 4=i v@i dOi ven biMn ................................................... 368!
9.9.2 Cc giOi php chi3n l89c thch 0ng 4=i v@i khu v2c Ty Nguyn ..................................... 369!
9.9.3 Cc giOi php chi3n l89c thch 0ng 4=i v@i khu v2c Nam B! ........................................... 369!

9.10 T5 ch0c th2c hi7n cc giOi php chi3n l89c thch 0ng .............................................. 370!
9.10.1 L2a chDn cc giOi php chi3n l89c 8u tin ....................................................................... 370!
9.10.2 TriMn khai th2c hi7n cc giOi php 489c l2a chDn ............................................................ 370!

K$T LUSN V KI$N NGHa .................................................................................... 371!

1. M!t s= k3t lu:n .............................................................................................................. 371!
2. M!t s= ki3n nghN ............................................................................................................ 375!
TI LI#U THAM KH&O .......................................................................................... 377!

DANH M!C CC K HI"U VI#T T$T

K hi7u
A1B, A1T,
A1FI, A2,
B1, B2
AGCM
AMIP
ANN
AOGCM
ATN*
B1
B2
B3
B4
BATS
BB*
B*KH
BIAS
BSS
BVN
CAM
CAO
CCA
CCM
CCCM
CCSM
CEI
CFS
CLIVAR
CLM
CPC
CRU

GiOi ngh`a
Cc kNch bOn pht thOi kh nh knh c6a IPCC
General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere (M hnh hon l8u
chung kh quyMn)
Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
Artificial Neural Network (MCng thLn kinh nhn tCo)
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (M hnh hon l8u
chung kh quyMn - 4Ci d8<ng)
p th;p nhi7t 4@i
Vng kh h:u Ty BIc B!
Vng kh h:u *ng BIc B!
Vng kh h:u *Fng b/ng BIc B!
Vng kh h:u BIc Trung B!
Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (S< 4F trao 45i sinh kh
quyMn)
Bo, p th;p nhi7t 4@i hoCt 4!ng trn BiMn *ng
Bi3n 45i kh h:u
Frequency Bias
Brier Skill Score
Bo, p th;p nhi7t 4@i hoCt 4!ng dDc bE biMn ho]c 45 b! vo Vi7t Nam
Community Atmospheric Model (M hnh kh quyMn c!ng 4Fng, l
m!t thnh phLn trong b! m hnh CCSM)
Cold Air Outbreaks (*!t bi3n khng kh lCnh)
Canonical correlation analysis (Phn tch t8<ng quan Canon)
Community Climate Model (M hnh kh h:u c!ng 4Fng)
Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model (M hnh hon l8u
chung c6a Trung tm Kh h:u Canada)
Community Climate System Model (M hnh h7 th=ng kh h:u c!ng
4Fng)
Climate Extremes Index (ChK s= c2c 4oan kh h:u)
Climate Forecast System (M hnh h7 th=ng d2 bo kh h:u c6a
NCEP)
Climate Variability and Predictability Ch8<ng trnh 4nh gi s2 bi3n
4!ng v khO nVng d2 bo kh h:u c6a th3 gi@i
Community Land Model (M hnh 4;t, l m!t thnh phLn trong b! m
hnh CCSM)
Climate Prediction Center (Trung tm d2 bo kh h:u - thu!c NCEP)
Climatic Research Unit, the School of Environmental Sciences (C<
quan nghin c0u kh h:u thu!c Tr8Eng khoa hDc Mi tr8Eng, Anh
Qu=c)

K hi7u
CS
CSI
CSIRO
DD
DKRZ

*NA
ECE
ECHAM
ECMWF
ENSO
EOF
ERA40
ETS
FAR
FC
FDA
FDDA
GAS
GCM
GCRI
GFC
GFDL
HadAM
HH
HK
ICTP
IPCC
ITCZ
KHC*
KKL
LAM
LSM

GiOi ngh`a
C!ng s2 (4M chK cc 4Fng tc giO c6a m!t cng trnh, bi bo,)
Critical Success Index
Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization (C<
quan Nghin c0u khoa hDc v kb ngh7 Lin bang c)
Dynamical Downscaling (HC th;p qui m 4!ng l2c)
Deutsches KlimaRechenZentrum (The German High Performance
Computing Centre for Climate and Earth System Research Trung
tm tnh ton hi7u nVng cao nghin c0u kh h:u v h7 th=ng Tri 4;t
C!ng ha Lin bang *0c)
*ng Nam
Extreme Climate Events (Y3u t= v hi7n t89ng kh h:u c2c 4oan)
European Centre Hamburg Model (M hnh kh h:u ton cLu c6a
Trung tm chu u tCi Hamburg)
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Trung
tm d2 bo thEi ti3t hCn vJa chu u)
El Nino/Southern Oscillation
Empirical Orthogonal Function (Hm tr2c giao th2c nghi7m)
ECMWF 40 Year Re-analysis (S= li7u ti phn tch ton cLu 40 nVm
c6a ECMWF)
Equitable Threat Score/Gilbert Skill Score
False Alarm Ratio
Fraction Correct
Fisher Discriminant Analysis (Phn tch phn bi7t Fisher)
Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation
S< 4F TSH*L Grell v@i giO thi3t khp kn Arakawa-Schubert
Global Climate Model (M hnh kh h:u ton cLu)
Greenhouse Climate Response Index (ChK s= phOn 0ng lCi kh h:u nh
knh ? Hoa kc).
S< 4F TSH*L Grell v@i giO thi3t khp kn Fritsch-Chappell
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Phng th nghi7m 4!ng l2c
hDc ch;t l>ng *Na V:t lW Hoa Kc)
Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (M hnh kh quyMn c6a Trung tm
Hadley)
HCn hn
Hanssen and Kuiper discriminant/Peirces Skill Score
International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Trung tm V:t l l thuy3t
Qu=c t3)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Ban Lin chnh ph6 v1
Bi3n 45i kh h:u)
DOi h!i tH nhi7t 4@i
Kh h:u c2c 4oan
Khng kh lCnh
Limited Area Model (M hnh khu v2c hCn ch3)
Land Surface Model (M hnh b1 m]t 4;t)
8

K hi7u
MAE
ME
MEI
ML
MLR
MM5
MM5CL
MOS
MPI-M
MR
MSE
MSSS
N1
N2
N3
NCAR
NCEP
NN
NNRP
NOAA
OCS
OGCM
PC
PCA
PCM
POD
POFD
PP
QBO
RCM
R*
REEP
REG
RegCM
REMO

GiOi ngh`a
Mean Absolute Error (Sai s= trung bnh tuy7t 4=i)
Mean Error (Sai s= trung bnh, hay sai s= h7 th=ng)
Multivariate ENSO Index
M8a l@n
Multiple Linear Regression (HFi qui tuy3n tnh nhi1u bi3n)
The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (M hnh qui m vJa c6a NCAR v
*Ci hDc bang Pennsylvania - PSU)
Climate Mode of the MM5 (M hnh qui m vJa MM5 phin bOn kh
h:u)
Model Output Statistics (Th=ng k sOn phPm 4Lu ra m hnh)
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Vi7n Kh t89ng Max Planck),
Hamburg, C!ng ha Lin bang *0c
Miss Rate
Mean Square Error (Sai s= bnh ph8<ng trung bnh)
Mean Square Skill Score
Vng kh h:u Nam Trung B!
Vng kh h:u Ty Nguyn
Vng kh h:u *Fng b/ng Nam B!
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (Trung tm Qu=c gia
nghin c0u kh quyMn Hoa K)
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Trung tm Qu=c gia
d2 bo mi tr8Eng Hoa K)
NIng nng
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration (C< quan quOn lW biMn
v kh quyMn qu=c gia Hoa Kc)
Outer Core wind Strength (S0c gi pha ngoi)
General Circulation Models of the Ocean (M hnh hon l8u chung 4Ci
d8<ng)
Percent Correct (PhLn trVm d2 bo 4ng)
Principal component analysis (Phn tch thnh phLn chnh)
Parallel Climate Model
Probability of Detection (Xc su;t pht hi7n hi7n t89ng)
Probability of False Detection (Xc xu;t pht hi7n sai)
Perfect Prog (D2 bo hon hOo)
Quasi-biennial Oscillation (Dao 4!ng t2a hai nVm tLng bnh l8u)
Regional Climate Model (M hnh kh h:u khu v2c)
Rt 4:m
Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities (,@c l89ng hFi qui xc
su;t s2 ki7n)
Regression (HFi qui)
Regional Climate Model (M hnh kh h:u khu v2c c6a ICTP)
Regional Model (M hnh kh h:u khu v2c c6a Vi7n Kh t89ng Max
Planck, Hamburg)
9

K hi7u
RH
RHm
RMSE
RSM
RV
Rx
SD
SOI
SOM
SRES
SST
TCLV
Tm
TS
TSH*L
Tx
Vx
XTN*

GiOi ngh`a
Rt hCi
*! Pm t8<ng c2c tiMu, hay 4! Pm t8<ng 4=i nh> nh;t
Root Mean Square Error (Sai s= qun ph8<ng)
Regional Spectral Model (M hnh ph5 khu v2c)
Reduction of Variance (*! suy giOm ph8<ng sai)
L89ng m8a ngy c2c 4Ci, hay l89ng m8a ngy l@n nh;t
Statistical Downscaling (HC th;p qui m th=ng k)
Southern Oscillation Index (ChK s= dao 4!ng nam)
Mixed-layer Slab Ocean Model (M hnh 4Ci d8<ng l@p xo tr!n)
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Bo co chuyn 41 v1
cc kNch bOn pht thOi c6a IPCC)
Sea Surface Temperature (Nhi7t 4! m]t n8@c biMn)
Tropical Cyclone Like Vortices (Xoy t2a XTN* hay bo m hnh)
Nhi7t 4! c2c tiMu, hay nhi7t 4! t=i th;p, hay nhi7t 4! th;p nh;t
Threat Score
Tham s= ha 4=i l8u
Nhi7t 4! c2c 4Ci, hay nhi7t 4! t=i cao, hay nhi7t 4! cao nh;t
T=c 4! gi c2c 4Ci, hay t=c 4! gi l@n nh;t
Xoy thu:n nhi7t 4@i

10

DANH M!C B"NG BI#U

BOng 2.1 Danh sch mCng l8@i trCm kh t89ng 489c khai thc s= li7u.................................... 57!
BOng 2.2 Danh mHc s= li7u cc chK s= kh h:u ......................................................................... 59!
BOng 2.3 Cc m hnh v nhdng th nghi7m chCy m hnh ..................................................... 73!
BOng 2.4 Cc chK s= kh h:u c2c 4oan ...................................................................................... 76!
BOng 2.5 BOng phn loCi tLn s= xu;t hi7n cc s2 ki7n ............................................................. 85!
BOng 4.1 Gi trN ke lHc quan trIc 489c c6a cc y3u t= KHC* trn cc vng kh h:u ........... 146!
BOng 4.2 TLn s= bo trong cc thng theo th:p ke ................................................................. 178!
BOng 4.3 H7 s= t8<ng quan gida dN th8Eng nhi7t 4! b1 m]t trung bnh ton cLu v@i nhi7t 4!
trung bnh nVm, t5ng l89ng m8a nVm v c2c 4Ci m8a trung bnh nVm tCi cc vng
kh h:u Vi7t Nam thEi kc 1961-2007 .................................................................... 185!
BOng 4.4 H7 s= t8<ng quan gida nhi7t 4! trung bnh ton cLu (Ts),cc chK s= kh h:u
PACWARM v REPAC_SPLA v@i SNML ? cc vng kh h:u Vi7t Nam thEi kc
1961-2007 .............................................................................................................. 186!
BOng 4.5 M!t s= 4]c tr8ng th=ng k 5 nVm lCnh nh;t v 5 nVm nng nh;t c6a nhi7t 4! m]t
n8@c biMn trung bnh vng MDR trong giai 4oCn 1981-2007 ............................... 189!
BOng 5.1 Nhn t= d2 bo sG dHng trong d2 bo BVN v BBD ............................................. 203!
BOng 5.2. Sai s= ME, RMSE v h7 s= t8<ng quan CORR trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p theo REG d2
bo Tmin2m cho 4 ma trn 7 khu v2c ................................................................. 210!
BOng 5.3. Sai s= ME, RMSE v h7 s= t8<ng quan CORR trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p theo REG d2
bo Tmax2m cho 4 ma trn 7 khu v2c................................................................. 211!
BOng 5.4. Sai s= ME, RMSE v h7 s= t8<ng quan CORR trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p theo REG d2
bo s= 49t m8a l@n cho ma h v thu trn 7 khu v2c .......................................... 216!
BOng 5.5. Sai s= ME, RMSE v h7 s= t8<ng quan CORR trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p theo REG d2
bo s= 49t khng kh lCnh cho ma 4ng trn 4 khu v2c ...................................... 218!
BOng 5.6 H7 s= hFi qui v cc nhn t= d2 bo trong ph8<ng trnh ........................................ 223!
BOng 6.1 C;u hnh c6a cc thG nghi7m 4! nhCy 4=i v@i mi1n tnh v 4! phn giOi .............. 226!
BOng 6.2 TLn s= c 4i1u ki7n c6a nhi7t 4! m ph>ng 0ng v@i cc khoOng nhi7t 4! quan trIc
trong thng 1 .......................................................................................................... 256!
BOng 6.3 TLn s= c 4i1u ki7n c6a nhi7t 4! m ph>ng 0ng v@i cc khoOng nhi7t 4! quan trIc
trong thng 4 .......................................................................................................... 256!
BOng 6.4 TLn s= c 4i1u ki7n c6a nhi7t 4! m ph>ng 0ng v@i cc khoOng nhi7t 4! quan trIc
trong thng 7 .......................................................................................................... 257!
BOng 6.5 TLn s= c 4i1u ki7n c6a nhi7t 4! m ph>ng 0ng v@i cc khoOng nhi7t 4! quan trIc
trong thng 10 ........................................................................................................ 257!
BOng 6.6 BOng t5ng k3t tLn s= nhi7t 4! .................................................................................. 257!
BOng 6.7 Cc chK s= 4nh gi cho cc thng ma 4ng.......................................................... 261!
BOng 6.8 Cc chK s= 4nh gi cho cc thng ma h .............................................................. 262!
BOng 6.9 Cc chK s= 4nh gi MAE cho nhi7t 4! trung bnh thng ....................................... 267!
BOng 6.10 Cc chK s= 4nh gi cho nhi7t 4! trung bnh ma ................................................. 267!
BOng 6.11 Gi trN trung bnh c6a cc ECE_IPCC trong thEi kc m ph>ng ............................ 270!
BOng 6.12 Gi trN trung bnh c6a cc ECE_VN trong thEi kc m ph>ng ............................... 271!
BOng 6.13 Sai s= trung bnh (ME) c6a cc chK s= ECE_IPCC m ph>ng b?i RegCM .......... 274!
BOng 6.14 Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) c6a cc chK s= ECE_IPCC m ph>ng b?i RegCM . 274!
BOng 6.15 Sai s= trung bnh (ME) c6a cc chK s= ECE_VN m ph>ng b?i RegCM ............. 276!
BOng 6.16. Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) c6a cc chK s= ECE_VN m ph>ng b?i RegCM ... 277!
BOng 6.17. Sai s= trung bnh (ME) c6a cc chK s= ECE_IPCC m ph>ng b?i REMO .......... 279!
11

BOng 6.18 Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) c6a cc chK s= ECE_IPCC m ph>ng b?i REMO .. 279!
BOng 6.19. Sai s= trung bnh (ME) c6a cc chK s= ECE_VN m ph>ng b?i REMO ............. 281!
BOng 6.20. Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) c6a cc chK s= ECE_VN m ph>ng b?i REMO .... 282!
BOng 6.21 Sai s= trung bnh (ME) c6a cc chK s= ECE_IPCC m ph>ng b?i MM5CL......... 284!
BOng 6.22 Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) c6a cc chK s= ECE_IPCC m ph>ng b?i MM5CL284!
BOng 6.23 Sai s= trung bnh (ME) c6a cc chK s= ECE_VN m ph>ng b?i MM5CL ............ 286!
BOng 6.24 Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) c6a cc chK s= ECE_VN m ph>ng b?i MM5CL .. 288!

12

DANH M!C HNH V"

Hnh 2.1 Vng hoCt 4!ng c6a BVN ......................................................................................... 53!
Hnh 2.2 Vng hoCt 4!ng c6a BBD .......................................................................................... 53!
Hnh 2.3 BOn 4F vng kh h:u Vi7t Nam ................................................................................. 59!
Hnh 2.4 BOn 4F 4! cao 4Na hnh (m) v phn b= mCng l8@i trCm kh t89ng Vi7t Nam khai
thc s= li7u quan trIc ................................................................................................ 59!
Hnh 2.5 Minh hDa mCng l8@i trCm quan trIc v khng gian l8@i m hnh .......................... 78!
Hnh 2.6 S< 4F minh hDa ph8<ng php hi7u chKnh chK tiu xc 4Nnh hi7n t89ng KHC* tJ sOn
phPm RCM d2a trn sai s= h7 th=ng tCi 4iMm trCm ................................................. 78!
Hnh 2.7 S< 4F tnh s0c gi pha ngoi (OCS) v tnh gi trN dN th8Eng c6a m!t tr8Eng b;t kc
.................................................................................................................................. 79!
Hnh 2.8. BiMu 4F tin c:y .......................................................................................................... 87!
Hnh 3.1. C;u trc l8@i thfng 40ng (bn tri) v l8@i ngang dCng xen kg Arakawa!B (bn
phOi) c6a m hnh RegCM3 ................................................................................... 106!
Hnh 3.2. S< 4F minh hDa ph8<ng php lFng RCM vo GCM .............................................. 109!
Hnh 3.3 Xu;t x0 c6a m hnh REMO ................................................................................... 118!
Hnh 3.4 S< 4F l8@i xen Arakawa C sG dHng trong m hnh REMO..................................... 122!
Hnh 3.5 ChK s= c6a cc 4iMm l8@i trong REMO ................................................................... 122!
Hnh 3.6 S< 4F c;u trc h7 th=ng m hnh REMO ................................................................ 123!
Hnh 3.7a S< 4F h7 th=ng m hnh MM5 ............................................................................... 126!
Hnh 3.7b S< 4F h7 th=ng m hnh MM5 c sG dHng 4Fng ha s= li7u ba chi1u .................. 126!
Hnh 3.8 S< 4F l8@i lFng trong MM5 ..................................................................................... 127!
Hnh 3.9 S< 4F m tO cc mi1n lFng nhau c6a MM5 ............................................................. 127!
Hnh 3.10 S< 4F minh hDa cc qu trnh 4=i l8u .................................................................... 129!
Hnh 3.11 S< 4F minh hDa cc qu trnh l@p bin .................................................................. 130!
Hnh 3.12 S< 4F minh h!a cc qu trnh b"c x# kh quy$n t% do ......................................... 132!
Hnh 3.13 S! "# minh h$a cc qu trnh b% m&t .................................................................... 133!
Hnh 3.14 T8<ng tc gida cc s< 4F tham s= ha .................................................................. 134!
Hnh 3.15 M tO h7 toC 4! lai thfng 40ng trong CAM 3.0 .................................................... 142!
Hnh 3.16 H7 th=ng m hnh CCSM v cc m hnh thnh phLn .......................................... 145!
Hnh 4.1 Phn b= tLn su;t c6a chuPn sai Tx thng VII c6a Vi7t Nam v 7 vng kh h:u...... 149!
Hnh 4.2 Phn b= xc su;t c6a chuPn sai Tm thng I ? Vi7t Nam v 5 vng kh h:u ........... 150!
Hnh 4.3 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Tx thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu .......... 154!
Hnh 4.4 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Tx thEi kc 1961-2007 theo thng tCi cc vng kh h:u
pha bIc (hnh trn bn tri), pha nam (hnh trn bn phOi) v Vi7t Nam (hnh bn)
................................................................................................................................ 154!
Hnh 4.5 Bi3n thin theo thEi gian c6a dN th8Eng nhi7t 4! cao nh;t Tx thng I (tri) v thng
VII (phOi) trn ton Vi7t Nam (trn), BIc B! v BIc Trung B! (gida), Nam Trung
B! v Nam B! (d8@i) ............................................................................................. 155!
Hnh 4.6 H7 s= a1 tnh tJ chuhi Tm thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu ................. 155!
Hnh 4.7 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Tm thEi kc 1961-2007 theo thng tCi cc vng kh h:u
pha BIc (hnh trn bn tri), pha Nam (hnh trn bn phOi) v Vi7t Nam (hnh bn)
................................................................................................................................ 156!
Hnh 4.8 Bi3n thin theo thEi gian c6a chuPn sai nhi7t 4! th;p nh;t Tm thng I (tri) v thng
VII (phOi) trn ton Vi7t Nam (trn), BIc B! - BIc Trung B! (gida) v Nam Trung
B! - Nam B! (d8@i) ............................................................................................... 157!
Hnh 4.9 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi RHm thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu ..... 157!
13

Hnh 4.10 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi RHm thEi kc 1961-2007 theo thng tCi cc vng kh
h:u pha bIc (hnh trn bn tri), pha nam (hnh trn bn phOi) v Vi7t Nam (hnh
bn)......................................................................................................................... 158!
Hnh 4.11 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Rx thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu ....... 159!
Hnh 4.12 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Rx thEi kc 1961-2007 theo thng tCi cc vng kh h:u
pha bIc (hnh trn bn tri), pha nam (hnh trn bn phOi) v Vi7t Nam (hnh bn)
................................................................................................................................ 159!
Hnh 4.13 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Vx thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu ....... 160!
Hnh 4.14 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi Vx thEi kc 1961-2007 theo thng tCi cc vng kh h:u
pha bIc (hnh trn bn tri), pha nam (hnh trn bn phOi) v Vi7t Nam (hnh bn)
................................................................................................................................ 160!
Hnh 4.15 S= 49t khng kh lCnh trung bnh thng ................................................................ 161!
Hnh 4.16 *! l7ch chuPn c6a s= 49t khng kh lCnh thng (49t) ........................................... 162!
Hnh 4.17 H7 s= bi3n thin c6a s= 49t khng kh lCnh thng (%) .......................................... 162!
Hnh 4.18 S= 49t khng kh lCnh trung bnh nVm trong cc th:p ke ...................................... 162!
Hnh 4.19 S= 49t khng kh lCnh trung bnh thng trong cc th:p ke .................................... 162!
Hnh 4.20 S= ngy rt 4:m trung bnh thng tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh h:u
pha BIc.................................................................................................................. 162!
Hnh 4.21 S= ngy rt 4:m trung bnh ma qua cc th:p ke tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn cc
vng kh h:u pha BIc ............................................................................................ 163!
Hnh 4.22 S= ngy rt 4:m trung bnh thng qua cc th:p ke tCi cc trCm tiu biMu ............. 163!
Hnh 4.23 *! l7ch chuPn c6a t5ng s= ngy rt 4:m trung bnh nVm ? cc trCm trong cc vng
kh h:u .................................................................................................................... 164!
Hnh 4.24 *! l7ch chuPn t5ng s= ngy rt 4:m trung bnh thng tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn
cc vng kh h:u .................................................................................................... 164!
Hnh 4.25 S= ngy trung bnh c m8a l@n (R " 50mm) tCi cc trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh
h:u .......................................................................................................................... 165!
Hnh 4.26 S= 49t m8a l@n trung bnh (R " 50mm) tCi cc trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh h:u
................................................................................................................................ 166!
Hnh 4.27 *! l7ch chuPn c6a s= 49t m8a l@n trung bnh tCi cc trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng
kh h:u .................................................................................................................... 167!
Hnh 4.28 S= ngy nIng nng nVm tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh h:u ............. 168!
Hnh 4.29 S= ngy nIng nng trung bnh thng tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh h:u
................................................................................................................................ 169!
Hnh 4.30 S= ngy nIng nng trung bnh nVm qua cc th:p ke tCi m!t s= trCm 4iMn hnh .... 169!
Hnh 4.31 *! l7ch chuPn c6a s= ngy nIng nng trung bnh nVm tCi cc trCm trn cc vng
kh h:u .................................................................................................................... 170!
Hnh 4.32 TLn su;t hCn thng tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh h:u ..................... 171!
Hnh 4.33 TLn su;t hCn ma tCi m!t s= trCm tiu biMu trn cc vng kh h:u ....................... 173!
Hnh 4.34 TLn s= bo ? khu v2c BiMn *ng (1961 - 2007) ................................................... 174!
Hnh 4.35 TLn s= bo theo cc c;p ? khu v2c BiMn *ng (1961 - 2007) .............................. 174!
Hnh 4.36 TLn s= bo 5 nVm ? khu v2c BiMn *ng (1961 - 2007) ........................................ 175!
Hnh 4.37 TLn s= bo 10 nVm ? khu v2c BiMn *ng (1961 - 2007) ...................................... 175!
Hnh 4.38 TLn s= bo ? Vi7t Nam trong thEi k 1961-2007 ................................................... 175!
Hnh 4.39 TLn s= bo tCi 7 vng bE biMn Vi7t Nam trong thEi k 1961-2007 ........................ 177!
Hnh 4.40 TLn s= bo cc c;p trn cc vng bE biMn Vi7t Nam (1961-2007)........................ 177!
Hnh 4.41 TLn s= bo theo tJng nGa th:p ke ? bE biMn Vi7t Nam ......................................... 177!
Hnh 4.42 TLn s= bo nGa th:p ke ? cc vng bE biMn Vi7t Nam .......................................... 178!
14

Hnh 4.43 TLn s= bo theo ma tCi 7 vng bE biMn Vi7t Nam ............................................... 179!
Hnh 4.44 Xu th3 bi3n 45i tuy3n tnh c6a s= 49t khng kh lCnh thEi kc 1961-2008 ............ 179!
Hnh 4.45 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi s= ngy rt 4:m thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu
biMu ......................................................................................................................... 180!
Hnh 4.46 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi s= ngy m8a l@n thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu
biMu ......................................................................................................................... 180!
Hnh 4.47 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi s= ngy nIng nng thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm
tiu biMu .................................................................................................................. 181!
Hnh 4.48 H7 s= a1 xy d2ng tJ chuhi s= thng hCn thEi kc 1961-2007 tCi m!t s= trCm tiu
biMu ......................................................................................................................... 181!
Hnh 4.49 H7 s= a1 c6a 48Eng xu th3 tuy3n tnh tLn s= BBD theo cc thng ........................ 182!
Hnh 4.50 H7 s= a1 c6a 48Eng xu th3 tuy3n tnh tLn s= BBD theo cc vng ......................... 182!
Hnh 4.51 H7 s= a1 c6a c6a 48Eng xu th3 tuy3n tnh tLn s= BVN theo thng ........................ 182!
Hnh 4.52 H7 s= a1 c6a c6a 48Eng xu th3 tuy3n tnh tLn s= BVN trn cc vng bE biMn ...... 182!
Hnh 4.53 Bi3n thin theo thEi gian c6a Ts trung bnh ton cLu (trn) v trung bnh khu v2c
*ng Nam (d8@i) vo thng I (tri) v thng VII (phOi) ................................... 183!
Hnh 4.54 Bi3n thin theo thEi gian c6a cc chK s= kh h:u NINA4, PACWARM, REQSOI,
REPAC v RINDO thng I (tri) v thng VII (phOi). .......................................... 184!
Hnh 4.55 S2 phH thu!c c6a NetTC v s= l89ng c<n bo vo nhi7t 4! m]t n8@c biMn ? cc
vng t8<ng 0ng ...................................................................................................... 187!
Hnh 4.56 Diin bi3n c6a nhi7t 4! m]t n8@c biMn v NetTC trong giai 4oCn 1981-2007 trn cc
vng ........................................................................................................................ 188!
Hnh 5.1 S< 4F mCng feed-forward m!t l@p Pn ...................................................................... 195!
Hnh 5.2 ChK s= RV trung bnh trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam vo ma xun khi xy d2ng quan h7
th=ng k c tuyMn chDn nhn t= tJng b8@c theo MLR v ANN cho nhi7t 4! trung
bnh thng t tJ s= li7u ti phn tch NNRP2 .......................................................... 202!
Hnh 5.3 ChK s= BSS trung bnh trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam vo ma xun khi xy d2ng quan h7
th=ng k c tuyMn chDn nhn t= tJng b8@c theo REEP v FDA cho hi7n t89ng nIng
nng trong thng tJ s= li7u ti phn tch NNRP2 .................................................. 202!
Hnh 5.4 Hm EOF1 v bi3n thin c6a PC1 cho bi3n PMSL trung bnh thng vo ma h trn
mi1n 1 ..................................................................................................................... 205!
Hnh 5.5 Hm EOF1 v bi3n thin c6a PC1 cho bi3n PMSL trung bnh thng vo ma h trn
mi1n 2 ..................................................................................................................... 205!
Hnh 5.6 Hm EOF1 v bi3n thin c6a PC1 cho bi3n PMSL trung bnh thng vo ma h trn
mi1n 3 ..................................................................................................................... 206!
Hnh 5.7 Hm EOF1 v bi3n thin c6a PC1 cho bi3n PMSL trung bnh thng vo ma 4ng
trn mi1n 4 ............................................................................................................. 206!
Hnh 5.8 Bi1u 4F tin c:y trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam trong ma 4ng tJ 2 ph8<ng php l2a chDn
nhn t= PCAMLR3 v MLR trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p theo REEP cho khO nVng xu;t
hi7n rt 4:m ............................................................................................................ 208!
Hnh 5.9 Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo Tmin2m v Tmax2m tCi m!t s= 4iMm trCm c
kb nVng th;p h<n d2 bo kh h:u theo REG .......................................................... 209!
Hnh 5.10. Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo Tmin2m tCi trCm Lng theo REG trong 4 ma
................................................................................................................................ 211!
Hnh 5.11 Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo Tmin2m tCi trCm CLn Th< theo REG trong 4
ma ......................................................................................................................... 212!
Hnh 5.12. Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo Tmax2m tCi trCm Lng theo REG trong 4 ma
................................................................................................................................ 213!

15

Hnh 5.13. Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo Tmax2m tCi trCm CLn Th< theo REG trong 4
ma ......................................................................................................................... 214!
Hnh 5.14 D2 bo Tmin2m cho 10 thng 4Lu nVm 2010 ....................................................... 215!
Hnh 5.15 D2 bo Tmax2m cho 10 thng 4Lu nVm 2010....................................................... 215!
Hnh 5.16 Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo s= 49t m8a l@n trong ma h v ma thu tCi
m!t s= 4iMm trCm theo REG ................................................................................... 217!
Hnh 5.17 ChK s= RV trung bnh trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam trong ma 4ng trn t:p s= li7u phH
thu!c v 4!c l:p theo REG v ANN cho s= 49t khng kh lCnh ........................... 218!
Hnh 5.18 Chuhi thEi gian quan trIc v d2 bo s= 49t khng kh lCnh tCi m!t s= 4iMm trCm
theo REG ................................................................................................................ 219!
Hnh 5.19 Bi1u 4F tin c:y trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam trong ma xun v h trn t:p s= li7u 4!c
l:p theo REEP cho khO nVng xu;t hi7n nIng nng ................................................ 221!
Hnh 5.20 Bi1u 4F tin c:y trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam trong ma xun v h trn t:p s= li7u 4!c
l:p theo FDA cho khO nVng xu;t hi7n nIng nng .................................................. 221!
Hnh 5.21 Bi1u 4F tin c:y trn khu v2c Vi7t Nam trong ma 4ng trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p theo
REEP v FDA cho khO nVng xu;t hi7n rt 4:m ..................................................... 222!
Hnh 5.22 D2 bo khO nVng xu;t hi7n nIng nng cho ma xun v h nVm 2010 tCi m!t s=
4iMm trCm theo ph8<ng php REEP d2a trn s= li7u d2 bo c6a CFS .................. 222!
Hnh 5.23 K3t quO d2 bo trn t:p s= li7u phH thu!c dN th8Eng s= l89ng (trn) v s= ngy hoCt
4!ng (d8@i) c6a BBD (tri) v BVN (phOi) ........................................................... 223!
Hnh 5.24 K3t quO d2 bo trn t:p s= li7u 4!c l:p dN th8Eng s= l89ng (trn) v s= ngy hoCt
4!ng (d8@i) c6a BBD (tri) v BVN (phOi) ........................................................... 224!
Hnh 6.1 BOn 4F 4! cao 4Na hnh (m) v vN tr, kch th8@c cc mi1n tnh: L (L@n), M (Trung
bnh), S (Nh>) ........................................................................................................ 226!
Hnh 6.2 BOn 4F 4! cao 4Na hnh (m) v@i cc 4! phn giOi 54km, 45km, 36km .................... 227!
Hnh 6.3 Nhi7t 4! TB ma 4ng (oC) c6a (a) DL, (b) CTL, (c) DS v (d) CRU ................... 228!
Hnh 6.4 Nhi7t 4! TB ma h (oC) c6a (a) DL, (b) CTL, (c) DS v (d) CRU ....................... 228!
Hnh 6.5 Nhi7t 4! TB nVm (oC) c6a (a) DL, (b) CTL, (c) DS v (d) CRU ............................ 229!
Hnh 6.6 L89ng m8a TB thng ma *ng (mm/thng) k3t h9p v@i tr8Eng dng (a) DS ; (b)
CTL ; (c) DL; (d) CRU (tr8Eng dng ERA40) ...................................................... 230!
Hnh 6.7 L89ng m8a TB thng ma H (mm/thng) k3t h9p v@i tr8Eng dng (a) DS ; (b) CTL
; (c) DL; (d) CRU (tr8Eng dng ERA40) .............................................................. 231!
Hnh 6.8 L89ng m8a tch lub thng 1 .................................................................................... 231!
Hnh 6.9 Nhi7t 4! trung bnh thng 1 ..................................................................................... 232!
Hnh 6.10 L89ng m8a tch lub thng 7 .................................................................................. 233!
Hnh 6.11 L89ng m8a tch lub 24h (mm) v p su;t m2c biMn 00Z cc ngy 23-25/7/1996. TJ
tri sang phOi t8<ng 0ng v@i DL, CTL1 v DS..................................................... 235!
Hnh 6.12 Nhi7t 4! trung bnh thng 7 ................................................................................... 236!
Hnh 6.13 Nhi7t 4! TB ma 4ng (oC) c6a (a) CTL2, (b) R45, (c) R36 v (d) CRU ............ 237!
Hnh 6.14 Nhi7t 4! TB ma h (oC) c6a (a) CTL, (b) R45, (c) R36 v (d) CRU .................. 237!
Hnh 6.15 Nhi7t 4! TB nVm (oC) c6a (a) CTL, (b) R45, (c) R36 v (d) CRU ....................... 237!
Hnh 6.16 Chnh l7ch l89ng m8a ma 4ng so v@i CRU (mm/thng) Tri CTL; Gida
R45; PhOi R36 ..................................................................................................... 238!
Hnh 6.17 Chnh l7ch l89ng m8a ma h so v@i CRU (mm/thng) Tri CTL; Gida R45;
PhOi R36 .............................................................................................................. 238!
Hnh 6.18 L89ng m8a tch lub thng 7 .................................................................................. 239!
Hnh 6.19 Lt cIt kinh h8@ng thEi gian c6a gi u (m/s) trung bnh v` h8@ng trn khu v2c tJ
0-20oN thng 4/2000 trong 4 (a) ERA40, (b) GAS, (c) GFC_30 v (d) GFC_45240!
16

Hnh 6.20 Lt cIt v` h8@ng thEi gian c6a chnh l7ch l89ng my ban ngy (tri) v ban 4m
(phOi) gida GFC_30 v GAS tnh trung bnh cho cc kinh 4! tJ 90-120oE trong 12
thng c6a nVm 2000. .............................................................................................. 241!
Hnh 6.21 Profile thfng 40ng c6a l89ng my (%) c6a GAS, GFC_30 v GFC_45 trong thng
1/2000 (tri) v thng 7/2000 (phOi) ...................................................................... 242!
Hnh 6.22 Profile thfng 40ng c6a 4! Pm ring (kg/kg) tJ s= li7u c6a ERA40 v cc thG
nghi7m GAS, GFC_30 v GFC_45 vo thng 1/2000 (tri) v thng 7/2000 (phOi)
................................................................................................................................ 242!
Hnh 6.23 Profile thfng 40ng c6a v:n t=c thfng 40ng (Pa/s) tJ s= li7u c6a NCEP v cc thG
nghi7m GAS, GFC_30 v GFC_45 vo thng 1/2000 (tri) v thng 7/2000 (phOi)
................................................................................................................................ 242!
Hnh 6.24 L89ng m8a v T2m (tri) v Tmin v Tmax (phOi) tJ s= li7u quan trIc v cc thG
nghi7m GAS, GFC_30 ........................................................................................... 243!
Hnh 6.25 Chnh l7ch l89ng m8a v T2m gida GAS v GFC_30 v@i quan trIc (tri) v chnh
l7ch Tmin v Tmax gida GFC_30 v@i GAS (phOi)................................................ 244!
Hnh 6.26 *! cao 4Na hnh khu v2c mi1n tnh........................................................................ 245!
Hnh 6.27 *! cao 4Na th3 vN v tr8Eng gi trung bnh thng 1 (trn) v 7 (d8@i) 10 nVm (19912000) m2c 500mb c6a ERA40 (tri) v RegCM3 (phOi)....................................... 246!
Hnh 6.28 Nhi7t 4! b1 m]t (oC) trung bnh 10 nVm (1991-2000) c6a CRU (tri) v RegCM3
(phOi) trong thng 1(trn) v thng 7 (d8@i) .......................................................... 247!
Hnh 6.29 T5ng l89ng m8a thng (mm) trung bnh 10 nVm (1991-2000) c6a CRU (tri) v
RegCM3 (phOi) trong thng 1(trn) v thng 7 (d8@i) .......................................... 247!
Hnh 6.30 Bi3n trnh nVm c6a nhi7t 4! khng kh (oC) v l89ng m8a (mm/thng) trung bnh
10 nVm (1991-2000) trn 7 vng kh h:u v ton Vi7t Nam. KW hi7u O l quan trIc,
M l m hnh, RA l l89ng m8a v T l nhi7t 4! .................................................. 248!
Hnh 6.31 Bi3n trnh nhi1u nVm c6a nhi7t 4! khng kh b1 m]t (oC) v l89ng m8a (mm/thng)
trung bnh trn 7 vng kh h:u v ton Vi7t Nam. O l quan trIc, M l m hnh, R
l l89ng m8a v T l nhi7t 4!, r l h7 s= t8<ng quan ............................................ 250!
Hnh 6.32 Tr8Eng gi (m/s) trung bnh 10 nVm (1991-2000) m2c 10m c6a m hnh (tri) v
m2c 1000mb c6a ERA40 (phOi) cc thng 1,4,7,10 (trn xu=ng) ......................... 251!
Hnh 6.33 Tr8Eng nhi7t 4! (oC) trung bnh 10 nVm (1991-2000) c6a m hnh (tri) v c6a
ERA40 (phOi) cc thng 1,4,7,10 (trn xu=ng) ...................................................... 252!
Hnh 6.34 Bi3n trnh nVm c6a nhi7t 4! m ph>ng v quan trIc trung bnh trn ton lnh th5
Vi7t Nam ................................................................................................................ 253!
Hnh 6.35 Cc chK s= th=ng k 4nh gi nhi7t 4! m ph>ng c6a m hnh tnh trn ton lnh
th5 Vi7t Nam .......................................................................................................... 254!
Hnh 6.36 Nhi7t 4! trung bnh nVm m ph>ng v quan trIc trn cc vng kh h:u ............... 254!
Hnh 6.37 Cc chK s= th=ng k 4nh gi nhi7t 4! m ph>ng cho cc vng kh h:u (tJ tri qua
phOi t8<ng 0ng l cc vng B1, B2, B3, B4, N1, N3, N2) .................................... 254!
Hnh 6.38 Tr8Eng t5ng l89ng m8a trung bnh 10 nVm (1991-2000) m ph>ng (tri) v CRU
(phOi) cc thng 1,4,7,10 (trn xu=ng) ................................................................... 258!
Hnh 6.39 Bi3n trnh nVm c6a l89ng m8a m ph>ng v quan trIc trung bnh trn ton lnh th5
Vi7t Nam ................................................................................................................ 259!
Hnh 6.40 Cc chK s= th=ng k 4nh gi l89ng m8a m ph>ng c6a m hnh tnh trn ton lnh
th5 Vi7t Nam .......................................................................................................... 259!
Hnh 6.41 L89ng m8a trung bnh cc thng trong nVm m ph>ng v quan trIc trn cc vng
kh h:u .................................................................................................................... 260!
Hnh 6.42 Cc chK s= th=ng k 4nh gi l89ng m8a m ph>ng cho cc vng kh h:u .......... 260!

17

Hnh 6.43 Tr8Eng gi trung bnh thEi kc 1982-1999 m2c 1000mb c6a ERA40 (tri) v
MM5CL (phOi) ....................................................................................................... 263!
Hnh 6.44 Tr8Eng nhi7t 4! 2m trung bnh ba thng ma 4ng (12,1,2) giai 4oCn 1982-1999
c6a MM5CL (tri) v CRU (phOi) ......................................................................... 263!
Hnh 6.45 Tr8Eng t5ng l89ng m8a trung bnh thng 1 (trn), thng 7 (d8@i) giai 4oCn 19821999 c6a MM5CL (tri) v CRU (phOi) ................................................................ 264!
Hnh 6.46 Bi3n trnh nVm c6a nhi7t 4! trung bnh giai 4oCn 1982-1999 c6a MM5CL (mu
hFng) v quan trIc tCi trCm (xanh 4:m) ................................................................. 266!
Hnh 6.47 Bi3n trnh nVm c6a l89ng m8a trung bnh giai 4oCn 1982-1999 c6a MM5CL v
quan trIc tCi trCm.................................................................................................... 268!
Hnh 6.48 Bi3n trnh nhi1u nVm c6a l89ng m8a trung bnh giai 4oCn 1982-1999 c6a MM5CL
v quan trIc tCi trCm ............................................................................................... 269!
Hnh 6.49 Mi1n m ph>ng c6a m hnh (khung vi1n vng) v qu` 4Co quan trIc (theo
weather.unisys.com)............................................................................................... 289!
Hnh 6.50 Qu` 4Co bo m ph>ng b/ng RegCM .................................................................... 290!
Hnh 6.51 Phn b= s= l89ng bo m ph>ng v quan trIc trong nVm 1996 ............................ 290!
Hnh 7.1 p su;t m2c biMn thng 01 nVm 1975 (a) m ph>ng b/ng CAM 3.0, (b) d2 bo b/ng
CAM-SOM, v (c) s= li7u ti phn tch NCEP/NCAR. *<n vN mb. .................... 292!
Hnh 7.2 p su;t m2c biMn thng 07 nVm 1975 (a) m ph>ng b/ng CAM 3.0, (b) d2 bo b/ng
CAM-SOM, v (c) s= li7u ti phn tch NCEP/NCAR. *<n vN mb ..................... 292!
Hnh 7.3 Nhi7t 4! b1 m]t thng 01 nVm 1975 (a) m ph>ng b/ng CAM 3.0, (b) d2 bo b/ng
CAM-SOM, v (c) s= li7u ti phn tch NCEP/NCAR. *<n vN oC. ..................... 293!
Hnh 7.4 Nhi7t 4! b1 m]t thng 07 nVm 1975 (a) m ph>ng b/ng CAM 3.0, (b) d2 bo b/ng
CAM-SOM, v (c) s= li7u ti phn tch NCEP/NCAR. *<n vN oC. ..................... 293!
Hnh 7.5 H7 s= t8<ng quan gida d2 bo v quan trIc c6a tr8Eng p su;t m2c biMn hai nVm
1975, 1980. ............................................................................................................. 293!
Hnh 7.6 Sai s= trung bnh (ME) (mb) c6a p su;t m2c biMn d2 bo cho cc nVm 1975 v
1980. ....................................................................................................................... 294!
Hnh 7.7 Sai s= trung bnh tuy7t 4=i (MAE) (mb) c6a p su;t m2c biMn d2 bo cho cc nVm
1975 v 1980. ......................................................................................................... 294!
Hnh 7.8 Sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE) (mb) c6a p su;t m2c biMn d2 bo cho cc nVm 1975
v 1980 ................................................................................................................... 294!
Hnh 7.9 H7 s= t8<ng quan gida nhi7t 4! b1 m]t d2 bo v quan trIc cho cc nVm 1975, 1980.
................................................................................................................................ 294!
Hnh 7.10 Sai s= trung bnh ME (0C) nhi7t 4! d2 bo cho cc nVm 1975 v 1980................ 294!
Hnh 7.11 Sai s= trung bnh tuy7t 4=i MAE (0C) nhi7t 4! d2 bo cho cc nVm 1975 v 1980.
................................................................................................................................ 295!
Hnh 7.12 Sai s= qun ph8<ng RMSE (0C) nhi7t 4! d2 bo cho cc nVm 1975 v 1980. .... 295!
Hnh 7.13 Trung bnh quan trIc gi trN cc chK s= ECE_IPCC (cc hnh a) 43n d)) v ECE_VN
(cc hnh e) 43n j)) thEi kc 2001-2005 trn cc vng kh h:u Vi7t Nam sIp x3p theo
cc nhm ................................................................................................................ 296!
Hnh 7.14 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE bn phOi) d2 bo
theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho cc chK s=
nhm YTN l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 .................... 297!
Hnh 7.15 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm YTM l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 .. 298!

18

Hnh 7.16 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm HTN l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 ... 299!
Hnh 7.17 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm CSK l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 ... 300!
Hnh 7.18 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE bn phOi) d2 bo
theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho cc y3u t=
Tx, Tm l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 .......................... 301!
Hnh 7.19 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng (RMSE bn phOi) d2 bo
theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho y3u t= Vx,
RHm l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 ............................. 302!
Hnh 7.20 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm HTML l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 303!
Hnh 7.21 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm HTRD l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 304!
Hnh 7.22 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm HTRH l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 305!
Hnh 7.23 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm HTNN l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 305!
Hnh 7.24 Sai s= trung bnh (ME bn tri) v sai s= qun ph8<ng t8<ng 4=i (RMSER bn
phOi) d2 bo theo cc m hnh RegCM (trn), REMO (gida) v MM5CL (d8@i) cho
cc chK s= nhm HTHH l;y trung bnh trn cc vng kh h:u thEi kc 2001-2005 306!
Hnh 8.1. Xu th3 c6a DT(TXx) v DT(TXn) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u B3 b/ng m hnh RegCM ................................................. 308!
Hnh 8.2. Xu th3 c6a DT(TXx) v DT(TXn) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A2 cho vng kh h:u B3 b/ng m hnh RegCM .................................................... 309!
Hnh 8.3. Xu th3 c6a DT(TNx), DT(TNn) v DT(DTR) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo
kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B3 b/ng m hnh RegCM .................................. 309!
Hnh 8.4. Xu th3 c6a DT(TNx), DT(TNn) v DT(DTR) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo
kNch bOn A2 cho vng kh h:u B3 b/ng m hnh RegCM ..................................... 310!
Hnh 8.5 Xu th3 c6a DT(R95p) v DT(R99p) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A2 cho vng kh h:u B3 b/ng m hnh RegCM .................................................... 311!
Hnh 8.6 Xu th3 c6a DT(TX90p) v DT(TX10p) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u N3 b/ng m hnh RegCM .......................................... 311!
Hnh 8.7. Xu th3 c6a DT(WSDI) v DT(CSDI) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u N3 b/ng m hnh RegCM .......................................... 312!
Hnh 8.8. Xu th3 c6a DT(CDD), DT(CWD) v DT(R50) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050
theo kNch bOn A2 cho vng kh h:u B1 b/ng m hnh RegCM ............................. 313!
Hnh 8.9. Xu th3 c6a DT(Tx) v DT(Tm) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B
cho vng kh h:u N2 b/ng m hnh RegCM ......................................................... 314!
Hnh 8.10. Xu th3 c6a DT(Vx) v DT(RHm) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh RegCM ................................................. 314!

19

Hnh 8.11. Xu th3 c6a DT(SNMLCB), DT(SNMLDR), DT(SDMLCB) v DT(SDMLDR) d2

tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u N1 b/ng m
hnh RegCM ........................................................................................................... 315!
Hnh 8.12. Xu th3 c6a DT(SNRDCB), DT(SNRDDR)d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo
kNch bOn A1B cho 4 vng kh h:u b/ng m hnh RegCM ..................................... 316!
Hnh 8.12a. Xu th3 c6a DT(SDRDCB), DT(SDRDDR)d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo
kNch bOn A1B cho 4 vng kh h:u b/ng m hnh RegCM ..................................... 317!
Hnh 8.13. Xu th3 c6a DT(SNNNCB), DT(SNNNDR), v DT(SNGGCB) d2 tnh cho giai
4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m hnh RegCM 318!
Hnh 8.14. Xu th3 c6a DT(SDNNCB), DT(SDNNDR), v DT(SDGGCB) d2 tnh cho giai
4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m hnh RegCM 318!
Hnh 8.15. Xu th3 c6a DT(STHH) v DT(SDHH) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m hnh RegCM .......................................... 319!
Hnh 8.15. Xu th3 c6a DT(TXx) v DT(TXn) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u N1 b/ng m hnh REMO .................................................. 320!
Hnh 8.16. Xu th3 c6a DT(TNx), DT(TNn) v DT(DTR) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050
theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m hnh REMO ............................ 321!
Hnh 8.17. Xu th3 c6a DT(TN90p) v DT(TN10p) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m hnh REMO ........................................... 323!
Hnh 8.18. Xu th3 c6a DT(TX90p) v DT(TX10p) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m hnh REMO ........................................... 323!
Hnh 8.19. Xu th3 c6a DT(WSDI) v DT(CSDI) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B3 b/ng m hnh REMO ........................................... 324!
Hnh 8.20. Xu th3 c6a DT(Tx) v DT(Tm) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u N2 b/ng m hnh REMO .................................................. 325!
Hnh 8.21. Xu th3 c6a DT(Vx) v DT(RHm) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u N3 b/ng m hnh REMO .................................................. 326!
Hnh 8.22. Xu th3 c6a DT(SNRDCB), DT(SNRDDR), DT(SDRDCB) v DT(SDRDDR) d2
tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m
hnh REMO ............................................................................................................ 327!
Hnh 8.23. Xu th3 c6a DT(SNNNCB), DT(SNNNDR), v ST(SNGGCB) d2 tnh cho giai
4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh REMO. 328!
Hnh 8.24. Xu th3 c6a DT(SDNNCB), DT(SDNNDR), v ST(SDGGCB) d2 tnh cho giai
4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh REMO. 328!
Hnh 8.25. Xu th3 c6a DT(TXx) v DT(TXn) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u N1 b/ng m hnh MM5CL ............................................... 330!
Hnh 8.26. Xu th3 c6a DT(TNx), DT(TNn) v DT(DTR) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050
theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u N1 b/ng m hnh MM5CL ......................... 330!
Hnh 8.27. Xu th3 c6a DT(TN90p) v DT(TN10p) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh MM5CL ......................................... 332!
Hnh 8.28. Xu th3 c6a DT(TX90p) v DT(TX10p) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh MM5CL ......................................... 332!
Hnh 8.29. Xu th3 c6a DT(WSDI) v DT(CSDI) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch
bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh MM5CL ......................................... 333!
Hnh 8.30. Xu th3 c6a DT(Tx) v DT(Tm) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh MM5CL................................................ 334!
Hnh 8.31. Xu th3 c6a DT(Vx) v DT(RHm) d2 tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn
A1B cho vng kh h:u B4 b/ng m hnh MM5CL................................................ 335!

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Hnh 8.32. Xu th3 c6a DT(SNRDCB), DT(SNRDDR), DT(SDRDCB) v DT(SDRDDR) d2

tnh cho giai 4oCn 2000-2050 theo kNch bOn A1B cho vng kh h:u B2 b/ng m
hnh MM5CL ......................................................................................................... 336!
Hnh 9.1 S< 4F 0ng ph v@i B*KH ....................................................................................... 343!
Hnh 9.2 Nng ln ton cLu lm tan bVng trn cc 4Knh ni cao v ? cc c2c Tri 4;t, lm
n8@c biMn dng v thay 45i l8u l89ng dng chOy c6a cc con sng ...................... 356!
Hnh 9.3 Bi3n 45i kh h:u lm gia tVng hCn hn v lj lHt ...................................................... 357!
Hnh 9.4 DNch cm gia cLm v dNch tO xPy ra ? nhi1u 4Na ph8<ng ........................................ 360!
Hnh 9.5 Ng:p lHt sg lm Onh h8?ng 43n 4! b1n c6a cc cng trnh xy d2ng v giao thng
................................................................................................................................ 360!
!
!

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