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Submitted by:
 ICF International9300 Lee HighwayFairfax, VA 22031703.218.2745Authors:Harry VidasBob Hugman
Strengthening Our Economy:The Untapped U.S. Oil andGas Resources
December 5, 2008
 
Prepared for:
American Petroleum Institute1220 L Street, NWWashington, DC 20005
 
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Table of Contents
1
 
Executive Summary..............................................................................................................7
 
1.1
 
Introduction and Report Findings..................................................................................7
 
1.2
 
Background.................................................................................................................9
 
1.3
 
Objectives of Study.....................................................................................................11
 
1.4
 
Approach to Study......................................................................................................11
 
1.5
 
History of Oil and Gas Assessments and Implications....................................................13
 
1.6
 
Summary of Resource Base Cases................................................................................17
 
1.7
 
Production Results......................................................................................................18
 
1.8
 
Private and Government Sector Economic Impact Analysis Results................................23
 
 
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Impact Analysis.....................................................................27
 
2.1
 
Oil and Gas Resources in OCS Moratoria Areas and Resource Base Assumptions...........27
 
2.2
 
Field Size Distributions for OCS Moratoria Areas..........................................................30
 
2.3
 
Setup of Cases for the OCS.........................................................................................33
 
2.4
 
Production Results for OCS Moratoria Areas................................................................35
 
2.5
 
Private Sector Economic Impact Results for OCS...........................................................38
 
 
ANWR Impact Analysis........................................................................................................41
 
3.1
 
Oil and Gas Resources in ANWR and Resource Base Assumptions.................................41
 
3.2
 
Setup of Cases for ANWR...........................................................................................43
 
3.3
 
Production Results for ANWR......................................................................................45
 
3.4
 
Private Sector Economic Impact Results for ANWR.......................................................48
 
 
Rockies Production Impact Analysis......................................................................................49
 
4.1
 
Oil and Gas Resources in the Rockies and Resource Base Assumptions..........................49
 
4.2
 
Production Results for Rockies.....................................................................................53
 
4.3
 
Private Sector Economic Impact Results for Rockies......................................................56
 
 
Comparison With Published Studies of Future Government Revenues from OCS, ANWR, andRockies......................................................................................................................................57
 
5.1
 
Introduction................................................................................................................57
 
5.2
 
Analysis of Revenues from Opening Moratoria and Off-Limits Resources.......................60
 
5.3
 
Analysis of Revenues from Entire OCS and Entire Federal Portion of Rockies.................64
 
Appendix A. Comparison with EIA and NPC Studies....................................................................69
 
Appendix B. MMS Offshore Production Lag Charts.....................................................................75
 
Appendix C. Industry Revenue and Expenditure Tables for Middle and Alternative Resource Cases.................................................................................................................................................77
 
Appendix D. Economic Impact Tables for Middle and Alternative Resource Cases........................89
 
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