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Sokolski H and Clawson P, Oct-2005. Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran, Strategic Studies Institute

Sokolski H and Clawson P, Oct-2005. Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran, Strategic Studies Institute

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GETTING READY FOR A NUCLEAR-READY IRANEdited byHenry SokolskiPatrick ClawsonOctober 2005
Visit our website for other free publication downloadshttp://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/To rate this publication click here.
 
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*****The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department ofDefense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distributionis unlimited.*****This book has been 2 years in the making and has benefited from the financialbacking of both private foundations and the U.S. Department of Defense. It would nothave been possible, however, without the expertise and guidance of several individuals.The first and most important among these is Patrick Clawson who, as co-editor, wasinstrumental in identifying both the topics and authors of the commissioned researchthat makes up this volume’s chapters.Also critical was the editorial assistance of the U.S. Army War College’s StrategicStudies Institute. The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) has workedclosely with Dr. Douglas Lovelace, Ms. Marianne Cowling, and Ms. Rita Rummel atthe Institute. This volume constitutes our organizations’ fifth successful collaboration.Michael Eisenstadt, the author of Chapter 10, “Deter And Contain: Dealing WithA Nuclear Iran,” would like to thank Jeff Cary, Brock Dahl, and Ryan Phillips for theirinvaluable research assistance in preparing his chapter.Finally and most important, has been the good patience of the book’s authors inupdating their essays and of NPEC’s Deputy Executive Director, Amanda Sokolski,my wife; and our assistant, Mohammad Nasseri-Asl, in pulling it all together. Withouttheir hard work and good humor there would have been nothing to publish.*****Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to:Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle,PA 17013-5244.*****All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepagefor electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from ourHomepage. SSI’s Homepage address is:
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ 
*****The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update thenational security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcomingpublications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter alsoprovides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interestedin receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail at
SSI_Newsletter@carlisle.army.mil
or by calling (717) 245-3133.
ISBN 1-58487-211-X
 
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CONTENTS
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Part I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11. Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran:Report of the NPEC Working Group
Henry Sokolski
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Part II. Tehran’s Nuclear Endeavors: What’s the Worry? . . . . . . . . . . . .
212. Arab Security Responses to a Nuclear-Ready Iran
Richard L. Russell
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233. The Nuclear Capabilities and Ambitions of Iran’s Neighbors
Wyn Q. Bowen and Joanna Kidd
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514. Turkey, Iran and Nuclear Risks
Ian O. Lesser 
 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 895. The Day after Iran Gets the Bomb
Kenneth R. Timmerman
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Part III. Is There a Simple Military or Sanctions Fix?
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1316. Is the Begin Doctrine Still a Viable Option for Israel?
Shlomo Brom
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1337. Strategy for a Nuclear Iran
Thomas Donnelly
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1598. Iran Gets the Bomb―Then What?
George Perkovich, with Silvia Manzanero
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Part IV. Further Courses of Action
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2079. Reducing Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz
Dagobert Brito and Amy Myers Jaffe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20910. Deter and Contain: Dealing with a Nuclear Iran
 Michael Eisenstadt
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22511. Managing the Iranian Threat to Sea Commerce Diplomatically
Douglas E. Streusand
 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25712. What Transatlantic Strategy on Iran?
Thérèse Delpech
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
About the Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
309

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