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PATHS DIVERGING?THE NEXT DECADE IN THE U.S.-JAPAN SECURITY ALLIANCE William E. Rapp January 2004
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****he views expressed in this report are those of the author and do notnecessarily reect the ofcial policy or position of the Department of the Army, theDepartment of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for publicrelease; distribution is unlimited.****he bulk of this work was made possible by the generous support from theCouncil on Foreign Relations and Hitachi, Ltd, during my tenure as an InternationalAffairs Fellow in Japan, 2002-03. I thank Former Prime Minister YasuhiroNakasone and Ambassador Yoshio Okawara for accepting me so graciously atthe Institute for International Policy Studies (Sekai Heiwa Kenkyu Jo) in Tokyo.My colleagues at IIPS, led by Professor Tazio Yakushiji, were of tremendous helpin guiding my study of Japanese culture and policy. Finally, I would like to thankLieutenant Colonel Thomas Horlander, Sam Jameson, Ed Rapp, Hajime Kitaoka,Dr. Robyn Lim, Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Sharon Bear, Colonel Mike Bosack, PhilRobertson, Masataka Itoh, and Joe Flanz for their insightful comments.****omments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwardedto: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 ForbesAve, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from thePublications Ofce by calling (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or by e-mail at
Rita.Rummel@carlisle.army.mil
****All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSIHomepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is:
http:// www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/
****he Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter toupdate the national security community on the research of our analysts, recentand forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by theInstitute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of ourresearch analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let usknow by e-mail at
outreach@carlisle.army.mil
or by calling (717) 245-3133.ISBN 1-58487-150-4
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FOREWORD
Currently, optimism reigns among managers on both sides of theU.S.-Japan alliance for many reasons, not least of which is the Japanesesupport for the global war on terror. The Japanese are emerging from5 decades of military minimalism and dependency and beginning tohave serious debates about their role in the world and the efcacy ofmilitary power. This internal debate, however, has signicant externalramications for Northeast Asia and the United States. A decade ago,Henry Kissinger wrote that “the new world order, with its multiplicityof challenges, will almost certainly oblige a country [Japan] with soproud of a past to reexamine its reliance on a single ally.”In this monograph, Lieutenant Colonel (P) William E. Rappexplores the changing nature of Japanese security policy and theimpact of those changes on the U.S.-Japan security alliance. He beginshis analysis by acquainting the reader with an insider’s view of theconicted Japanese conceptions of security policy and the variousideational and structural restraints on expanding the role of themilitary. Next, he explores the events of the past decade that havecaused huge shifts in security policy and posture and predicts thefuture vectors of those changes within Japan. Finally, LieutenantColonel Rapp overlays the likely Japanese security future on thealliance and concludes that changes in the basic relationship betweenthe United States and Japan must occur if the alliance is to retain itscentrality 20 years from now.Lieutenant Colonel Rapp’s extensive research from both publishedsources and personal interviews with ranking Japanese and Americanleaders and bureaucrats provides valuable and timely insights intothe changing nature of the relationship between these two powers.The future of American security policy in the region is a topic of hotand urgently needed debate. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleasedto publish this monograph as a contribution to that discussion on bothsides of the Pacic Ocean.
DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR.DirectorStrategic Studies Institute
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