1

22

1
2

3-

3 200

1 (why)

2 (how)
3
4

1
(GCM)

1960 2009

NCEP/NCAR 52 4 10
(PCA)(SVM)
HadCM3
HadCM3 A2 20202099
3 :20202039 20502069 20802099
19601999 3 20802099 3.6 mm 3

3
10 17 18-140 10% 130
140 46.86 mg/L 26.95 mg/L
1.10 mg/L

4

(
10-2) (10-6-10-3)